State Of The U.S. Coin Market: 2021

John, is this tied in any way to the Commemoratives Bubble of the 1980's that I referenced in another thread ?

I wasn't paying attention or active back then....but I find it fascinating that after the 1970's Bubble.... both coins and precious metals could spend a decade burning off excess....doing nothing....treading water....and yet (gold) commemoratives had a decade of fantastic price gains that didn't end until 1989-90.

Anybody recall what was going on with commemoratives (and esp. gold commemoratives) in the 1980's ?

 

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Not sure what it means for coins with gold or silver...but gold and silver bullion have NOT collapased following the January/FUN spikes to $5,600 and $120.

They're holding about 90% and 75% of the price and most of the gains in recent months. We'll see if it holds.

 

There was an earlier commemoratives bubble, before the one in 1989. In the late 1970s and 1980, there was a big promotion for "collector coins." The commemoratives were in the middle of it.

Promoters pointed to the much lower mintages for commemorative coins as opposed to the regular issues. What they didn't cite were the survival numbers for the commemoratives which are much higher than they are for the regular issues.

A mintage of 18,028 for the Antietam did not make it a "super investment" compared to a 1901-S Barber Quarter with a higher mintage of 72,664. Using PCGS CoinFacts numbers, the 1901-S quarter has 2,000 survivors with 80 in Mint State and just 25 in MS-65 or better. Conversely the Antietam has 15,000 survivors with 12,000 in Mint State and 7,500 in MS-65 or better.

There was an book published during this period, Silver & Gold Commemorative Coins 1892 to 1954 by Walter Breen and commemorative specialist dealer, Anthony Swaitek. The book had a lot of good historical information about the commemorative coins, but an appendix was full of laughable projections about what commemorative coins would be worth in the future.

For example the book, which was published in 1981, projected that Norfolk commemorative half dollar in MS-65 would be worth $2,600 in 1985 and $4,500 in 1990. Simialar projections were made for every other commemorative coin. Today, the "CoinFacts" retail number for the MS-65 Norfolk is $400.