Anyone else notice NGC Coin grade values are seriously outdated?

Just looking at Morgan Dollars, looks like NGC hasn't updated their coin values in 8 years or more? It isn't just low graded circulated coins, it's even more noticable in MS categories.

 

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I still see coins where the price guide is higher (noticed it yesterday when looking up several random examples on GC). I think the biggest contributor (at least on the lower dollar end) has been the rapid rise in gold and silver prices. For example, a few weeks ago we basically got to the point where all the common date Morgans had more melt value than guide up to MS 63. Also, post-2020 the coin market has had a strong run. We temporarily bottomed out in late 2019/early 2020 and that was probably the last time price guides were consistently high (I was tracking MS 65 Morgans and they got down to about $85 in greysheet and sales were concluding on GC in the $70-$95 range).

 

Am I the only person who thinks that AI should make it really easy to update these price guides?

 

For the items based on melt prices, yes it should be easy. For items that use an average of sales, not necessarily as it still takes human intervention to toss out the wrong results (for example, PCGS coinfacts still links to sales of the wrong coin at times because the eBay description was incorrect...an example I've seen is where it pulls a gold coin instead of a silver for the silver guide).

 

AI would not be the final say, but it is extremely powerful at searching and presenting the results. It is a tool. Once the data is accumulated, it is fairly easy to group the accurate info and identify the anomalies. Those can then either be thrown out or investigated for accuracy.

 

The trouble with lower grade materal, which has lost its numismatic value to its bullion value, is that the number changes daily, actually by the second.

If you look at the Grey Sheet prices and see little or no difference between EF-40 and MS-62, you need to go the spot prices for gold and silver. They will tell you what that material is worth.

As for the truly scarce and collectable material, the prices guides can't keep up with it. It's whatever the bidders in the big auctions take it. I bid more than the catalog and more than recent auction results on two 1793 Chain AMERI. cents recently. I came in third both times. I think some people don't have much respect for the U.S. dollar any longer.

 

What you said is accurate.
In terms of the increases, I believe it is a combination. Some of it is inflation, some is higher melt prices, some is more interest, and some is more money to spend (from those that sold their gold/silver at recent peaks or took profit on other things like bitcoin/stocks and are spending the gains).

 

The world coin pricing at NGC comes from Krause, I believe. If those listings for certain countries at Krause (numismaster.com) aren't updated, then they indeed look outdated.