The Great Silver Melt

As silver increases in price, many "silver" coins will be traded for cash at the "we buy silver" shops. So, hypothetically, say, if all but one common date mercury dime is melted down, will it become valuable. How does "anyone " know how many of these dimes exist? Sure 4,000,000 were minted, how many are there now?

 

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I'm all for them melting cull Morgan dollars, sick of seeing them for sale on eBay and advertised as "better dates collectibles", which most aren't. The more that get melted, the more valuable the existing pool become numismatically. As for dimes, quarters, and halves, there is such a large number minted I don't think it matters in our lifetime.......maybe not for another 100 years.

 

I think in the previous Great Melts, many rare coins were melted because people didn't understand the rarity.

I'd really like to think that today, rare dates aren't getting melted. I'm sure a few are, but I'd hope that anyone sending it in would at least check. Depends on the quantity, of course.

In today's age of information, the scarcity of a coin is pretty easy to determine. It is largely based on auction appearances... if I can find the coin I want in the grade and condition I want and it appears in major auctions at the rate of a few per year... it is scarce but not rare. If I do an Ebay search and there are dozens... not rare at all... If I see one or two per year... rare. If I haven't seen one at auction for a couple years... really rare.

 

I think he's using an arbitrarily small number by modern standards.

I think his point is, if (random number) has had (random large percentage) melted... how do you know? How do you know if a 1945 is now a key date because of how many were melted?

And the answer is... you don't. Until auction results indicate scarcity. If there are 100 collectors who want 1 coin.... it is going to fetch a much larger price than a coin where 25 collectors each want one of 5 coins.

 

No one really knows for sure the exact number of a given date and mintmark of any coin that was minted and melted. We know the exact number that were minted from mint records. These silver coins have been melted since 1965 in a sense.
In the 1980’s a vast majority went into the melting pot with no regard to its real value. Things are different know and this hobby is changing before our eyes. Coins that once had numismatic value are now valued on the spot price.
As more are melted certain dates and mint marks will become more difficult to find and that will drive prices up. A common date coin could become rare. A rare date could become priced so high the vast majority of collectors won’t be able to afford one.
It’s just impossible to say which coin that will be. In the past many collectors filled holes in a folder or an album. Today, there aren’t as many collectors filling folders or albums. Will there be less in the future? Probably. Will silver and hold coins become more likely to be priced for their metal content. Most likely.
Just bare in mind that our hobby is changing as time goes by and prices are driven more by the metal content than a collection content.

 

I distinctly remember during the price run up of the 80s receiving seated liberty and barber dimes when buying junk silver, so the possibility that many collector coins are or will be melted is great.

 

I wonder if I should keep my Silver ETF "SLV" with it at $60.00

 

One of the great learning experiences of my life was when the price of silver was run up in late 79/80. I had been a collector since the age of 7 and as an 18 year old had 2 things. A friend named Mike who had about 5 dollars face in silver and a great need to sell it. And an accumulation of hundreds of silver coins that I got brow beat into to selling most of.
I was sick in my soul afterwards and quickly figured out my life plan to become a coin dealer might have a major flaw. i get too emotionally invested in my coins. Life has forced several sell offs over the decades; each one leaving me depressed and troubled. Just imagine doinf that every day. It would have been a short life for me. james

 

When I started collecting in the late 1960s/early 70s, there were several "better dates" of Roosevelt dimes. Try getting a premium for 1955 dimes now, or even back when silver was under $20.

 

Sold Nelson and Bunkie Hunt 1877-1883 proof trade dollars when they were trying to corner market for $9,000 each! worth about $3k now?

 

Pretty sure those didn't get melted. Unless they slipped through the cracks during the bankruptcy proceedings.

 

We’ve all heard of Redfield Dollars. They all bring a premium today. Wouldn’t it be nice to have the same thing in Hunt Dollars?

 

There are many slabbed, high grade versions of everything that will never be melted. Would venture to say people won't do it even if the melt value exceeds their numismatic value some day.

 

Around 1981 when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market driving prices to the highest they had ever been, there was a "great melt".
Not just Roosevelts, but everything was being melted even rare date coins as the melt value was equal or higher than the numismatic value.
Many great coins and dates were lost if it happens again with the current high silver prices I can only assume the survival rates for certain coins can only go lower and their numismatic value can only go higher.

 

What's the rush to melt them this time? There is plenty of silver for manufacturing, the price is being driven by different factors than low supply. The previous melt was due to available silver being bought and held and artificially driving up the demand. there are no supply issues now, you can buy whatever you want at a bit over spot, and industry has all that they need.

 

Wrong! Worldwide silver deficit for the last 4 years. Production can’t keep up with industrial demand. Making up the difference with old coins and silverware only delayed this inevitable increase. Most countries don’t have nearly the amount of junk silver as the US.
A little help from AI
Is there really a shortage of silver?

AI Overview
+8
Yes, the world is experiencing a significant silver shortage, with demand consistently outstripping supply since 2020, driven primarily by booming industrial needs in EVs, solar, and AI, while mine production struggles to keep up, leading to a structural deficit expected to continue into 2026. This gap between increasing demand and limited supply is causing market tightness and pushing prices higher.
Key Factors Driving the Shortage:

• Exploding Industrial Demand:
  Silver is crucial for electronics, solar panels (photovoltaics), electric vehicles (EVs), and data centers, sectors seeing massive growth.
• Stagnant Mine Supply:
  Most silver comes as a byproduct of other metals, making supply inelastic; new mines take years to develop, and production has fallen from its peak.
• Structural Deficit:
  For the fifth year in a row (2021-2025), demand has far exceeded available supply, creating large cumulative deficits.

What This Means:

• Market Tightness:
  The gap between what's needed and what's available is substantial (e.g., a 95 million ounce deficit projected for 2025).
• Price Pressure:
  The fundamental supply/demand imbalance is a key reason for recent record-high silver prices.
• No Quick Fix:
  The shortage isn't temporary and won't resolve quickly due to the slow response of mine supply, making it a long-term market dynamic.

 

Have you not read my posts as to what is driving the current silver market. Supply and demand leads the way. Supplies are short and growing shorter rapidly. Demand is increasing with the advances in technology. China and India are a problem as they are adding to short supplies. The list goes on.

 

If a random blog poster said other random blog posters were wrong, I might question both sides' sources and assumptions. But if AI says it, I guess that settles it.