Values - Values - Values .... Did evaluation of 14 "keys" .....Need Advise.

Greetings Fellow Forum Members ...... I am adding 14 coins to my "key-date" collection (NOT all at once....silly you). These are not "KEY!" dates but more so "key" dates (in the $4,000-$6,000 range). I decided to compare the Heritage Sales from 2008-09 to current 2016-17 dates on all 14 coins. What I have come up with is that - after averaging all the sales - I have come up with the following: 6 had minus values 7-35% -- 5 had plus values 6-29% - - 3 had no change in values. Off the "top-of-your-head" what do you make of these numbers? The coins are: Fugio, Flying Eagle Cent, Lincoln Cent, Buffalo Nickels, Mercury Dime, Standing Liberty Quarters, Walking Liberty Half, Indian $5. Gold, and St Gaudens $20. Gold. Sooooooo, whata U say, buddies?

 

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I say those are good figures to point out whenever someone starts talking about "investing" in key coins, or says "buy the keys first because they'll only be more expensive later".

 

Did you compare the exact same coins sold in 07/08 and again in 16/17? If not, your conclusions are somewhat flawed. Different coins in same grades can range due to eye appeal, over or under graded, high chance for crack out and get a higher grade etc.

 

Also beaned or not in that price range

 

I took the "bean thing" into consideration. Being able on Heritage to view each coin in mega detail, I did evaluate as to eye appeal, CM's, strike, etc

 

If we say these are all comparable comparisons that can't be explained away by a changing market, I would say that those numbers sound about right. Things get hot and cold and compared to 08ish we are definitely more in a buying market than a selling one. Do that again in 10 years and those numbers may flip.

What I would be curious to know is for the ones that changed how much did a single or a handful of coins affect the pricing? That 35% drop was that consistent or were there a couple dogs that just dragged everything else down. Even when a series is down there is still usually a segment of it bringing premiums compared to its peers

 

I kicked out the real highballs as well the real low balls. I compared coin for coin. I do I think you know how to grade these 14 coins very well.... not professional at all. My thought is that as new collectors and investors enter the hobby that the "keys" will always be .... key.

 

Inarguable.

Approach this as "parking money," with the expectation of breaking even upon liquidation, and do not settle for less than the best example (not necessarily the highest-graded) of each you can possibly afford.

 

"Approach this as "parking money," with the expectation of breaking even upon liquidation,"

Why do you say this? Shouldn't MOST keys always increase in value simply because of new collectore entering the hobby?

 

I think your numbers are about normal for most coins. Prices go up and down all the time. There is no way to guess what will happen. I agree with Dave about buying quality coins.