@davidw I don't know if you know about this ( you probably do), but here is omg price guide. https://www.pmgnotes.com/priceguide/world-note-price-guide.aspx
As its title sez it's a guide not etched I stone. As I've seen it many times where book values are either off... priced over or under the present value. Even the price guides often show up and down trends of a specimen of certain series. Again best advice do your homework and research the current values.
I use auction prices from HA and Great Collections. In addition, I compare like graded coins for strike and eye appeal. I've seen a number of graded coins which were superior in strike and eye appeal than those with higher grades. I saved a lot of money not buying grade only. Of course, if one is building registry sets then eye appeal may not be the number one consideration.
I will usually offer 70% to an 80% maximum of the NGC price guide so I am pretty close to where you are. I check eBay mostly but I have also bid on and won coins at Heritage at these prices. eBay seems to work better for me with coins that I am looking to purchase. I don't always win or have my offer accepted at those prices but it is what I feel I should be paying or what I am able to pay for them.
I used to think that, the sold listings, but I don't see my own purchase from last October for a 1886S MS65 Morgan. I am kinda worried about it as it was 1/2 of Blue Book. A Redfield Hoard coin.
I also use auction prices and try to match up my coin to the one sold. Time consuming but well worth it.
That's a good practice. Sometimes you can clearly see trends in a coins value if you go back a number of years. You can also see how often a coin comes up for auction. If I really want to fill a slot and not wait several years I may bid a little higher.
If I am thinking about the right hoard, my opinion is that many of the coins are overgraded which might (at least partially) explain the discrepancy.
MS 65 I read something about that myself so I guess I'll have to get it graded by a real grader. Any suggestions guys.
I use eBay, Heritage, Great Collections, and Worthpoint, which has archived listings going back the better part of a decade (but you need to pay $20 a month).
I can give you an instance I went to stacks. Brought a 1909 L Ms 64rd IHC for 75$ a 1995 Ms 68rd ddo 75$ and a 2008 ASE for 19$ I purchased these in 2008 now there worth 300+ each minus the ASE Sent from my C6740N using Tapatalk