I could say a lot but I won't because I have said it all so very many times before. However, I'll say this much - I agree with the title of this thread ! And that, well that kinda says it all
Grading killed sportscards, turning it into a business from an enjoyable hobby, leading to overproduction and apathy. I am not saying that is happening to coins, there is a need at times for authentication and grading for special coins, but I am sure that 70% of coins that are graded don't need to be.
One of the things I don't like about modern US coinage is the large number of different types of coins the mint issues each year now. I guess I'm old fashioned and tend to stick to the traditional coinage that I grew up with. I can see why the TPG's are overloaded as so many of these modern coins are submitted only to receive either a 69 or 70 designation. I wonder how much of their business is tied to the modern coin market.
I did not know that professional graders must grade so many coins in a day. That fact alone made David's post valuable, although he offered several astute observations IMHO. I'm not a certified expert coin collector, but I knew exactly what David was talking about in that paragraph that begins with "Bag marks are OK for some coins, not so for others." I omitted #2 (above) because it was not related to the grading variability issue, and because it's a great question: "Where did you learn how many coins are graded each day?" Perhaps Charles Morgan mentioned it in the CoinWeek video? With regard to TPG's grading accuracy, I contend that we do not know how accurate they are, or if PCGS is really more accurate than NGC (which a lot of folks seem to believe) or if PCGS and NGC are more accurate than ANACS (another widely held belief). Until someone conducts a scientifically sound study of TPG grading accuracy, the best we'll have is educated guesses. Such accuracy estimations, e.g., the opinion surveys about TPGs, have value but they do not answer the accuracy question with nearly as much reliability as a formal research project. ~ Mark
I just watched the video. Don't believe everything you see/hear in these types of formats. Note that "authentication" was not discussed in the video - that adds time. Additionally, any grader who couldn't grade over 800 SE a day would not be hired after their trial period. I might not keep an eighty percent correct grader either. It would be very interesting to know the REAL rate.
I don't think grading coins matters at all until you are ready to sell, then it just makes the sale easier. ( with a reputable TPGS anyway. ) I think they are over-used, and apparently, rushed too much. JMHO
One thing that bothers me with these graders is they never talk about the strike alignment. I have seen coins 67 and above that had poor alignment and should never have then made a 67 or above grade, at least in my opinion. I consider it like sports cards or paper money, is it truley centered or is it off. I don't worry about it on lower grade coins but if it is mint state then it has to be taken into consideration.
DavidH. - What do you exactly mean by saying, "The acceptance of grading only matters if you're in this for future profit."???????
The OP's lack of math skills is what annoys me about this thread. If each grader is accurate to 80% (0.80) then if two or three INDEPENDENT graders look at it, the "error" rate will NOT BE 20%!! For two independent graders, the error rate becomes 0.2 x 0.2 or 0.04!! In other words, if two graders look at it, the chance at least one of them gets it right is instantly 96%!!! Add a finalizer and it goes up even more!!! Math can be our friend if we just learn it. This is why multiple judges, whether it be for coins, exhibits, Olympic diving, or appellate legal cases, are so important. It's also why judges' conferences are so important when there is disagreement.
Grading is, and always will be, somewhat subjective on most of the major factors. Having stated that as fact, my opinion: - Assigning different grade standards to a coin because of its rarity (or other reasons) is totally bogus and cannot be justified. - The amount of time allowed to the grader(s) is simply insufficient to fully evaluate the coin. - It has been demonstrated, time and again, that re-submission of coins results, inevitably, in a large number of coins being over-graded in their holders. - The best aspect of grading services is the elimination of many counterfeit and other problem coins, at lease from certified holders. - The TPGs do make mistakes and it is a fact that some coins are graded based upon the identity of the owner or submitting dealer owner...unfortunately. That is the real world. - In the final analysis, as long as everyone involved is aware of these factors, the collecting community is better off with, than without, the grading services. Evaluate the relative merits of the coin yourself, regardless of the assigned grade.
There are other factors at work that change the calculations, too. We are now in a world, for better or worse, where the vast majority of coins being graded by PCGS and NGC are bulk submissions of modern coins headed for cable TV sellers. That takes the grading rate way up. Same type coin over and over, and the brain locks into just grading them against one another. We have this romanticized notion that a grader's workday shapes up like 40 of those 20 coin boxes like Charles did to get to the 800 number, but it's not like that at all. Also, graders never know the identity of a submitter, but they might INFER how important a client is by the type of material and who else is grading with them. It's a little hard to hide a major important collection being slabbed in preparation for a big auction.
I don't follow your logic here since what becomes the final grade? Is the final grade the correct one or a combination of each graders grade which would then be incorrect. You also assume that each grader is identical. We assume that each grader looks at each coin the same way. If machines were doing the grading then if each machine was running the same software and calibrated the same then yes. But human grading will always be subjective.
If you're a collector who just wants to complete a collection you can enjoy and be proud of then the number grade of each coin you have is immaterial. It only matters that you like its looks and that it fits in well with your other coins. On the other hand, grading a coin with the maximum number you can get matters only when you want to sell a coin and get the maximum profit from it. You may happily buy a coin graded by a TPG as 64; you'll also happily sell that same coin for profit if you can get a TPG to raise the grade to 66. You may say that you want nearly perfect examples in your set but, really, there's little in-hand visual difference between 60 and 63 and 66 FWIW (nothing), I have many coins in my type set that were in graded holders when I bought them and I broke every one of them out of its holder because I collect coins, not holders. Other people's (TPGs) opinions are meaningless to me; it's my set and only my opinion matters.
What I wanted to say is that for 2 graders the chance of BOTH getting the grade wrong is .2x.2=.04 or 4%. The chance for both getting it correct is .8x.8=.64 or 64%. That means at least one got the grade wrong 36% of the time. For three graders the chance that all 3 are wrong is .2x.2x.2=.008 or .8%. In addition, the chance that all three get it correct is .8x.8x.8=.512 or 51.2%. That means that at least one gets it wrong 48.8% of the time.
