Uncirculated Mint Sets (Value vs Mintage)

Has anyone ever explained inflation and cost of living index to you?

 

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Lol. I feel like someone’s about to try.

 

The 2023 U.S. mint sets from Philadelphia and Denver.

 

The downward mintage trend continues for the uncirculated mint set. The key set was 2012, which has steadily declined in value with time. Its once low mintage is now high compared to recent years. The collector's universe is slowly losing interest in these sets, which doesn't bode well for the hobby. Here is a chart of mint set values versus mintage since 1999.

 

In my fifty years of collecting following the mintage figures hadn't given me much pause unless there was mention of as much such as in 1999 or, as pointed out 2012. It wasn't until the huge uptick in issue price from 2020 to 2021 on the silver proof sets that a closer examination became apparent. I would concur that it's alarming, when in twenty years time the figures have plummeted just shy of 1 million. Second, the current figures for 2023/24 are below that of 1959 at 187,000. However, as I'm one who always finds the positive in any situation. Currently, large numbers of collectors are abandoning the mint for their sets, many buying them for less in the secondary market. As as a result, I forsee sellers who buy in bulk reducing their orders rather than break even or take a loss. While collector's interest may not be as popular as it once was, it will climb again at some point. When it does, sets below 200,000 will likely exploded in value.

 

Those don't include Proof Sets, right ?

The State Quarter Program probably inflated the numbers in the early-2000's....I wonder what the mintages were like a decade earlier ?

 

This thread is for uncirculated mint sets only and includes only sets from 1999. I've got other threads for clad proof sets and silver proof sets.

 

I have doubts that coin collecting will continue with much gusto past the current generation. The hobby starts young, lags during the child rearing ages, and increases again in later years. Young collectors will typically start by finding coins from change and filling coin books. As folk's shop using credit/debit cards or on-line, change is becoming obsolete. You can even use cards in vending machines. The mintages of cents, nickels, dimes, and quarters will steadily decline as electronic money will become the norm. As change becomes passe, the young will not start collecting. Don't get me wrong, it won't happen overnight. It will die a slow death. Merry Christmas coin collectors

 

I've extended the uncirculated mint set dataset back to 1968. As a note, the 2021 and 2024 mint sets are still available for sale from the mint.