Hey everybody, I'm planning on making my next coin purchase, but am trying to keep the future market in mind. I'm wondering what coin (and what condition) do you think has a high rarity to dollar ratio? I'm thinking about a matte proof Lincoln or perhaps a 1936 Lincoln proof, because they are relatively inexpensive considering how few survive today. What coin do you think has the best value given the rarity?
Don't forget that "demand" is also a factor. There may be only 10 of Coin X but if only 5 people want one then rarity is not as important factor with regards to price.
"Rarity to dollar ratio"? What purpose does it serve? It sounds like a phrase the bullion hucksters might use in their doomsday ads. Chris
The coin which is popular on the current market which depends upon which dealer is selling them and how many they have to sell. In short, buy whatever you want without regard for rarity per dollar value since "value" is relative to whatever someone is willing to pay. For example, only 17,500 IKE Reverse Proofs were made. Less than that amount were sold. For about 3 months, these represented EXCELLENT Rarity per Dollar Value since they were originally sold at $57.95 and then could be resold for $200-$300. But that was then. Today, you can't even get $200 for one. A few years back, I thought to myself "You gotta get a 55/55 Lincoln in an AU Grade because the coin will ALWAYS be desireable since it's a classic collectible!" I'm still looking at a loss on that sucker! BUT, at least I have one. Buy what you like. Better yet, buy a coin that you wouldn't mind losing money on.
Two things factor into this. One is how many of the coins survive (the rarity) and the other is the demand (the price). So, what you are looking for is a rare coin that few people want. If you are banking on such a coin someday being valuable...I won't bank on that. The reason is..the cost is low for a reason and trends don't change much. Why would a coin that is 80 years old suddenly soar in popularity and demand overnight? If you are really trying to hit it big...I would think the better gamble would be to look for more modern issues. Modern mint issues that didn't sell well (perhaps some of the first spouse coins). Since they are so new...their market could still take off. It hasn't been stagnant for decades. Still, it's a risk though. If it were me, I would not worry about trying to make money and simply collect the things that make you happy.
Like everyone else, I think you're asking the wrong question, but I'll answer what you've asked instead of elaborating on that point. In US coins, I think any proof coin from about 1870-1900 would fill the criterion. Pattern coins, certainly, if you can afford them. Otherwise, I'd look at civil war tokens or ancient coins, where you can find pieces that have fewer than 20 known for a few hundred or a couple thousand dollars.
Let's put it this way, it's not a US coin. There are coins out there with less than 10 known that sell for less than $1,000. And it's not because there aren't many who collect them, or that not many people don't want them. There are plenty of people who do collect them and plenty who want them. The issue is this - there is only a tiny handful of people who are aware that there are less than 10 known. In fact there are fewer people who know than there are coins known !
Thank you for the insight Chris! I'll make sure to send my thread titles to you for approval next time
A number of these have mintages around 2500 and are quite affordable. If the market never wakes up you'll only be stuck with a terrific, beautiful, rare coin at a bargain price. I have five.
I've typically gravitated toward earlier type coins and even a few colonials, as absolute survivability is low and I don't see demand ever going away. However, I'm beginning to see that world coins may have even more potential. The advent of online auctions has made them more viable as it increases their liquidity and hopefully their popularity.
We're talking government issued coins, and not privately made rounds, right? If private, there are highly sought after exonumia "fantasy" coins that have low mintages but have a great price. One example is the Geoffrey Hearn and Richard Lobel series of "1937" coins (made in the 1950s and 1980's, respectively). The most popular of which are the crowns featuring King Edward VIII.
