I heard from Matt on the Coin Show Podcast that PCGS and NGC have recently (super recently, that is) returned U.S. coins to customers that they would have normally given grades of 66 or 67 not too long ago but such coins are now coming back as 65s. That is, now that CAC Grading is in business. I wonder: 1) if true, if this will now apply to World Coins? Does CAC Grading accept/grade them? 2) if true, is CAC Grading is really responsible for PCGS/NGC's more conservative grading recently?
Pure hokum. We've never changed our standards. There is no such thing as gradeflation. We don't care about no new-fangled competition. The auto-m-obile will never replace a good horse. Destroy the machines.
I'm not sure if I totally believe that. If true, it would hurt their reputations by admitting that they inflated grades. Couldn't they argue that CACG is being too conservative with their grades? I realize that JA has earned respect from the numismatic community and is considered a top expert, but what does that say about the other TPGs? Considering the large volumes of coins that the TPGs grade, I can understand that some lower tier coins most likely won't be seen by the elite graders. In that situation I can understand why a coin may not get a proper grade; most likely over-graded. Over time, unless CACG limits the volume of coins it grades, I don't see where they will be any better than the others. I would guess that as the rarity increases, the grades given by the top TPGs will be almost identical.
Doug always said that eventually they would have to return to a standard based grading, which is inherently more conservative grading. I would hazard to guess this took a decade longer than he thought it would and I doubt he thought a sticker would be the impetus, but either way this is a welcomed development for the hobby. On the other hand, I have seen a few dealer CACG grade reveals videos, and I'm starting to think they have gotten too strict. I don't mean about the numeric grade, but with how many coins they are body bagging for almost invisible scratches and other problems that seem so minor its a bit ridiculous. I would think that this is going to definitely have an effect on the other big TPGs. The reality or the perception that only the best coins make it into CACG straight grades, and the other problem coins stay in other plastic. Hard to say if they are already adjusting due to CACG , already were moving in that direction on their own, or if it's not even happening at all yet. Medium to long term, I do think CACG will have an impact on PCGS and NGC, and I don't mean just their bottom line.
There are always periods when people mention that PCGS and NGC have become too conservative or too loose. With the entry of CACG, it's possible they are trying to tighten up to not earn the "overgrading" label or it could just be a coincidence. Either way, there will probably be some loosening once the market dictates a need for it.
I think that you hit the key word, "market". If the market determines over time that their grading is too strict, then most people will avoid sending coins to them. There are a lot of coins in PCGS and NGC holders with a green bean; even a few with gold beans. Does anyone know off hand what percentage of non-modern coins in PCGS and NGC holders have been sent to CAC over the years? I wonder what percentage of coins that CAC looked at received beans.
They have not released the numbers but the closest they came was this thread: https://forum.cacgrading.com/discus...asked-question-what-of-coins-does-cac-approve "There is no such number/percentage of how many coins CAC approves. In some cases, this number is as low as 1% and in others can reach as high as 60%. This depends greatly on the strike/luster characteristics of and grading standards for that specific coin."
Their numbers are just from those submitted to them which I assume are still a minority of the overall population. Of course, that will vary depending on the rarity of the coin.
I follow several people on Instagram and the consensus is that CACG is grading very conservatively. I don't think they grade world coins. I personally haven't seen any differences in the results of my submissions to NGC. I usually send 10-12 coins at a time. I can guarantee 2-3 will probably details, the rest will grade at or above my expectations. But, I only send in world coins. In fact, I learn much more from what details. I have seen several others lament the fact that their coins to PCGS and NGC haven't realized the grades they thought, so possibly there is a bit of more conservative grading happening, but whether it's in response to CACG, I don't know. These are people that send in US coins, so I would think with that many saying the same thing, something has changed.
