The mintages

And both (being error coins) have different and unique stories that make them worth all the more. I doubt that any serious buffalo collector would consider their set complete without a 37D 3 leg. Just checked the Ebay listings for 37D 3 leg and there were 101 current listings and average price of the first 10 was $996.00

 

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I get what's your saying

Yea I know

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Split observation , in the case of oddities like the 55 ddo type 1 , I comprehend

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Your opinion is also mine. My further opinion is that these "key" dates were the result of a communication limitation where it used to be difficult to almost impossible to find them in circulation which is how most collectors used to fill their albums, as opposed to buying them. When I started collecting in 1975 in ATL, I know of only one dealer who might have carried these coins in inventory, though I don't recall actually seeing any. All of the others carried coins which were worth less, presumably because their customer base didn't buy coins at this price point. Hence, their "rarity" and this perception has survived more or less intact, even though anyone who wants to know actually knows these coins are common to very common.

The only modern that I would rate as a "key" is the 1995-W proof ASE outside of specialization, though I don't know if this view is the consensus opinion. There are a few others which have high prices which I think are also disproportional to their availability, but they are few and far between. An example would the 1998 specimen Kennedy.

 

Didn't almost all the 1995-W proof ASEs survive?

If so, there should be about 25-30k of them. IMO for a survival rate that high the price is unjustified.

 

That doesn't make it any sketchier; the whole reason survival trumps mintage is because one cannot own what does not exist, be it an 1861-S quarter or S VDB. Also, as your example helps to show, the direct comparison of one coin based on the value of another is meaningless; the LS25C example will never, ever be worth anywhere remotely close to that amount.

With that said, it's good to see you're looking deeper, OR.

 

If the proofs are stashed in collections and few are reaching the market, then the price will be high for those who want them. 21 years after issuance is not a vast amount of time.

 

Yeah, good point.

But if everyone put their coins on the market at the same time, wouldn't it be worth like 20 times less?

 

'Cause nobody wants them.........set them aside and maybe (maybe) someone will want them in 300 years.........

 

To your earlier point about demand equaling value @Omegaraptor , that was something I was thinking about the other day when checking values on a 27s peace dollar I have compared to the 31s Lincoln cent. They both have virtually the same mintage and they were minted only about 5 yrs apart. Despite the intrinsic value of the dollar and lack thereof on the cent, the cent is worth about twice as much on average because there are many more wheatie collectors as opposed to peace dollar collectors.

 

It's certainly possible if all sellers were willing to let the market dictate prices, but a much more likely scenario is that the market would be flooded with a lot of then-overpriced coins, with those willing to take what the market would pay selling theirs while the rest sat unwanted.

 

In a word, survival.

The 1909-SVDB cents were snatched up and a significant portion of them were saved. So even though it is the lowest mintage (and most expensive) they are readily available. The 1931-S cent was know to be an very low mintage even in that same year and the survival rate is probably 80% or better. The 14-D, even though it had a significantly higher mintage, was just another cent and they circulated and circulated. It probably wasn't until the 1930's before anyone even realized they were anything special. The survival rate for them is probably under 10%

In the case of the satin finish cents the survival rate is probably pushing 95% or better. There are probably a lot more of them surviving than any of the key or even semi-key date cents, even though they may have lower initial mintages.

Hard to say what they would be worth. Even if all 31K hit the market at the same time, there are a lot more than 31K collectors of ASE that want them but haven't been able to afford them so demand would still be very high and that would tend to help keep the price up.

 

My opinion also. I consider this coin one of the most overpriced on the
planet. It's possible a relatively high proportion are also owned by non-collectors.

 

At this point in time, I'd say the survival rate for the satin finish cents approaches 100% since it has been less than 10 years since striking and they weren't issued for circulation.

As for the 95-W ASE, there are certainly 30k collectors or at least buyers, but I don't believe anywhere near that many who both want the coin and can afford to pay its current price, at least in close proximity. This is equally true for practically any coin for the demand versus its supply.

The price level for any individual coin and the market as a whole is set at the margin, as with anything else. Only under unusual circumstances will there be an avalanche of supply to send prices crashing because most sellers know that dumping a lot of supply will depress the price.

In recent times, only in late 2008 or early 2009 did the conditions exist where this was likely but I don't know how prevalent it was. My assumption is that it wasn't widespread because the financial stress was temporary.

 

Prime example of low mintage coinage not carrying any value is the 1955 Roosevelt dime. Lowest mintage(12,450,181) Roosevelt dime. You can pick one up for $25 in MS67. 1949 another low mintage(30,940,000) Philadelphia dime books at $125. Why the disparity? Collectors hoarded the 1955 and many high grades exist.

 

Just out of curiosity I went to the PCGS and NGC pop/census reports. Of the 30,102 1995-W ASE proofs, 7,143 have been slabbed by the two services. Seems that despite the prices the coin is listed for, the overwhelming majority have been kept intact in the 1995 set.

 

How many people actually collect dimes? At shows, it appears to me that dealer inventories are limited, but I may be wrong???

 

My opinion is a many collect the FDR (silver) dime, though I have no direct evidence of it except the TPG population reports. The reason the prices are low on these examples is because the collector base is not large enough to support the supply at higher prices. Most collectors are spending their money somewhere else.

Going back to the initial post, I have seen similar ideas and questions raised for any number of coins. The idea invariably is because a coin is (supposedly) scarce or the person likes and thinks a particular coin or series is "under appreciated', it should be worth a lot more.

Well, there are a lot of "rare" and actually rare coins. All of them cannot and won't sell for high prices because the overwhelming percentage have absolutely nothing to distinguish them other than their (supposed) scarcity. The South African collectors I know, they invariably think that every scarce and rare coin in the South African series should be worth more or "moon money", despite the fact that it has an outsized proportion of unusually scarce coins and would leave almost nothing affordable for the average collector to buy.

For actually common but widely collected US coins and series, its reasonable to expect that a coin will increase substantially in isolation (in a particular grade or as a die variety as examples) but not across the board. Believing this even as the collector base is becoming poorer (and will almost certainly continue to do so) contradicts economic common sense.