[THUNDERDOME] Calling all opinionated coin graders to duke it out in the comments

Calling on all opinionated coin graders, your help is requested!

Following up on my previous post, it has been a blast building out my AI coin grading and identification app these past two weeks. Folks here have given a lot of great feedback and I've made numerous updates to Numi since. Here is a live video demo showing the latest update with PCGS API integration.

A key part of Numi's logic is that it references detailed grading criteria I've compiled based on the top TPG's public grading standards. Whenever Numi is asked to grade a coin, it references these grading standards to give a final estimated grade.

I've been running around to various coin shops to talk with dealers to get their feedback on the wording of Numi's grading criteria, but I'm getting a lot of mixed messages. One coin shop dealer said,

However the next day another dealer told me,

So now I'm turning to the wisdom of the crowds. I'm looking for opinionated coin graders to share their thoughts on Numi's grading criteria.

Below is what Numi currently uses:

I would love to start a discussion and see what you believe should be changed. I have also created a public Google doc with these criteria for easier sharing and commenting. I'll update Numi's logic based on the discussion here, continue to test the app with graded slabs, and post the results here.

This continues to be a wonderful community. Thank you all for the feedback you've shared so far. Let's see if we can make coin collecting more approachable.

If you want to play around with Numi directly, you can check it out here.

- Dansco Dude

 

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I like what looks good to me regardless of what the tpgs or AI say about it. I am the best grader I know for what appeals to my eye.

 

What "way" is THAT, exactly, and which TPG or 4PG?

 

It's a good question. I would say initially yes, I do want Numi to consistently give grading estimates that are in line with TPGs today. I struggle to see the numismatic world moving away from the Sheldon Scale anytime soon. NGC is trying to mimic the card-collecting scoring system via NGCX to make coin collecting easier to approach for new collectors. But my sense is that NGCX hasn't picked up adoption since the Sheldon Scale is so entrenched. And in reality, has just added more confusion to the marketplace.

I also don't see AI grading as replacing TPGs with its own grading criteria. At least not anytime in the near future. Rather AI grading apps like Numi would be an initial tool used to see if it may make sense to ultimately send a coin in to the TPG. So for now, I'd argue the quickest way for AI apps like Numi to assist coin collectors is to remain in line with the TPG standards.

A key expectation I try to lay out with Numi is that it should be considered a preliminary opinion or grading sanity check for collectors. Basically a second grading opinion [the first opinion being the collectors] before they send it to the TPGs. In order for Numi to be valuable to collectors, I'll first have to adjust it to be as accurate as much as the model allows. It's entirely possible the GPT4 model is currently too weak, but I feel I have not hit that barrier yet given the progress I've made and the increased accuracy I've seen.

I'd argue that those feelings of remorse or feeling shafted already happen today with the results folks have gotten from the TPGs

The difference is that with AI grading [assuming AI becomes powerful and accurate enough], collectors would get grading results immediately. Before they had to sign up for TPG membership, pay submission fees, and wait months for the results as they have to today. As long as AI app like Numi can lower the barrier to knowledge for collectors, be it with grading, identification, or general access to information, then it will make coin collecting more approachable and is worth the effort to investigate AI as a solution.

In case you are curious, here are the grading standards from the TPGs I based Numi's grading criteria off of

PCGS
NGC

 

Oh, Thanks.

So.....

What "way" is THAT, exactly, and which TPG or 4PG?

 

Gee, you left out CAC and CACG. Oh well, maybe you don't know about them, or you do, but they don't meet your exhaled Grading expertise. Not to mention ICG.

Good Lord.

I think your definition of "major" might be a bit skewed.....

 

Do you have to talk to this thing? What if you weren't so ... um ... polite?

 

I'm aligning it to match PCGS' standards since PCGS has the strongest reputation in the hobby. Not to say that NGC is bad or a distant second, but I'd rather Numi align with PCGS.

I'm tailoring Numi so that it gives grading results that align with PCGS for non-ancient coins. And with NGC for ancient coins. It's not so much defining grading standards towards one TPG's standards, but rather having so that Numi gives results consistent with a certain TPG [i.e. PCGS].

i.e. When it analyzes an MS65 coin in a PCGS holder, it always gives back an MS65.

Numi will not give a recommendation to the user on which TPG to use for submission. Thought I might include context to the user that estimated grades best align with PCGS.

If/when that happens, I may end up updating Numi to align with the new standards to match PCGS' new results. Or I may not update and make a disclaimer that results align more closely with PCGS before their update. It'll depend on what collectors ask for.

I am always polite to our new robot overlords

 

Good luck to you on that PCGS thing, and your endeavors, but (there is always a "but"), you may want to research a bit, as to what is occurring in the world of pricing and evaluation FOR and on BEHALF OF the collector.

 

A computer program, any computer program, is only as good as the person that writes the code for that program.

 

Can you elaborate more on what you mean?

 

No, because I subscribed to the school of thought that if a person is introducing a better mousetrap/methodology to an industry/entity, and particularly the evaluation of same, the person should have researched and be well versed in the subject and know all of the market aspects and the methods being presently used, and more appropriate to your particular endeavor...knowing what the public really wants, not what you may perceive it wants.

I completely understand you are pursuing making a market and any entrepreneur doing so is his own best sales person, as it should be. You appear to have a gift for answering those with negative or doubtful thoughts, with erudite phrasing and positive self-endorsement.

What is missing is your in-depth understanding of the Market and the collecting community: the hobbyists, the dealers, the Graders, the basis of pricing AND the participants that set the present level of the hobby, and indeed the worldwide scope of the hobby, and the relatively quiet sub-groups that have a significant impact.

It isn't the entity you think it is.

Yes, yes, I expect you will dismiss any observation that you are attempting to make a market. That is always the Play Book. I have observed many individuals and entities that have tried over many years and the road signs of making a market never vary.

I do wish you well, and you may get there. However, as of now, you are not well versed. The simple aspect that you request me to explain what I mean is support of my observations.

Truth in editing: changed a "t" to a "y".
It happens.

 

Thanks for your honesty and insights Charley. I indeed still have quite a lot to learn

 

There will always be naysayers in anything anyone does, I for one think this is a super cool concept. If for no other reason than the average joe to play around with his probably not that valuable collection and just see what grades it comes up with. Not everything about coin collecting has to be well is it worth this or that. Maybe you just want to compare 2 of the same coin you have to see which is better and you suck at grading (I kinda suck at grading even after years of collecting).

Just my .02 on it. If I had a GPT4+ subscription I'd give this a whirl cause I love playing around with stuff and anything that ignites some new interest in collecting is a win in my mind.