NGC vs. PCGS the difference and why the premiums shift.

Every wonder why a PCGS coin in MS66 will carry a higher premium to buyers than a MS66 from NGC?

I know for years I did, then about 6 years ago at a convention in San Diego I sat thru a seminar which attempted to educate professional numisist on this exact point(waste of time)!

You see, the bottomline for the price difference has to do with selectibilty at certain grades(according to NGC reps). Being in the buisness for many years, I have noticed that from AU-55 - MS 63, you really notice no price difference when selling professional grade coins between NGC and PCGS, but the magic grade seems to be MS65+. Me being the type of person I am, the seminar seemed to be a good starting point for own homewrok into this age old question.

When you start dealing in higher grade coins, a LARGE part of their value comes from the population report of that specific date and mint. For instance here, I am going to reflect on the 1932 D Washington quarter in MS-65. Ngc has a Pop of 14 currently, with none graded higher(14/0), While PCGS has 63 currently with 1 higher (63/1). YET.... Heritage recently sold a PCGS MS65 32d for 20,500.00, but in May sold a MS65 NGC 32d for 15,600.00 ????????? So I have to say, if the population has the majority to do with it, then this makes NO sense.

Important information NGC vs. PCGS the difference

 

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I was about to ask that question. The other question I have is if the higher values listed in the PCGS price guide are inflated or reflect the fact that PCGS certified coins just sell for more. Which came first, the chicken or the egg?

 

Can't really be explained...I don't understand it either. The main thing is to buy the coin and not the holder though. If you do that you can't go wrong.

 

Not me. It always seemed rather self-evident that NGC is much more liberal in giving out the 66 (and higher) grades than PCGS.

Also, don't let the pop reports fool you -- you should be looking at % of coins in a grade, and not the sum total of coins in a grade.

Regardless, I think if you study practically any series, the first statement of my post will become rather obvious -- it is true from old copper to moderns and everywhere in between -- NGC is looser with the ultra-high grades...Mike

 

That makes a lot of sense.

Personally, I'm not as convinced there is a big $-wise difference between PCGS and NGC. In the case above (32-D MS65 25c), we're only looking at two data points.... but there are many thousands of slabs traded a year. We need a bigger sample size !

So I went and checked the Heritage listings. And yes I found some wild price swings - PCGS vs PCGS ! Check these two :

$18,400 http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=432&Lot_No=1000&src=pr

$13,800 http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=422&Lot_No=945&src=pr

Forgetting price, looking only at the coins... which do you prefer ? For me, the first one. It's blast white, while the other has a mottled tone.

Apparently, the marketplace agrees. Coin #1 is worth $4,600 more - about 33% - even though both are PCGS MS65.

Which just validates the "Buy the coin, not the holder" thing. And the "not fungible goods" thing.

So I would be careful drawing conclusions from just two data points NGC vs. PCGS. Overall, I think PCGS has a slight lead, but it's small. If it were huge, there would be a huge flock moving towards PCGS.

 

Pop reports are completely and utterly worthless. They don't (and can't) take into account coins that were cracked-out & resubmitted. I have seen in print (perhaps QDB, but I might be wrong) that as much as 25% of submissions are crack-outs! Not that <i>that</i> number can be solidified either...but let's face it...the numbers are severely skewed.

 

There's no doubt the coin census is imperfect... just like the people census.

But imperfection doesn't mean it's completely worthless. We just have to realize the imperfections, take it with a grain of salt, and use it cautiously within its bounds... just like the people census.

I am told that many folks send in their certificates after they crack 'em open, and the top TPGs decrement the census accordingly. That is a correcting factor.

I think the census does tell a tale. It's useful for comparing issues within a series, and looking for a "break point" at which the population dives, and comparing that to price. Helps me make decisions sometimes.

 

I'm not one who necessarily drinks the "PCGS Kool-Aid" and I honestly feel that NGC is often more consistent than PCGS is with grading. But NGC does give out 67s more generously (even if consistently) in many coin areas including Mercury Dimes, Washington Quarters, and especially Lincoln Cents. I also feel that NGC is more liberal with grading gold, especially grading Indians with rubs as 60/61 coins.

So, I often feel that the higher PCGS prices are warranted. But, with that said, there are many nice coins in NGC holdes.

 

The real reason for the PCGS prices is their collection listings for high quality sets.

The registry sets only allow PCGS coins and it has increased the prices for listings.

http://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/

Of course, this is all bogus and bull----.

 

I'm a relative newby compared to many of you, but I have an ooinion on this issue. I just don't like the white plastic of the NGC holders, the transparent holders by PCGS and ICG allow my eye to see the coin in my environment, not a white plastic environment. I just feel that the experience is a lot closer to holding a raw coin than in NGC holders.

Also, for modern coins (Silver Reverse Proof for example), NCG grades twice the percentage of coins at 70 than PCGS. So a coin that you might get from NGC as a 70, may slab as a 69 with PCGS. That makes a PCGS 70 more selective and therefore more valuable. But why then does a PCGS 69 cost more than a NGC 69?

 

aj:
as stated above:
The real reason for the PCGS prices is their collection listings for high quality sets.

The registry sets only allow PCGS coins and it has increased the prices for listings.

http://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/

Of course, this is all bogus and bull----.

 

If I'm looking at two coins in different slabs, and the coins have about equal eye-appeal and look to grade the same, I'm going to buy the less expensive one regardless of whether it's NGC or PCGS. PCGS might command a premium, but times change, opinions change, people come and go, and businesses improve and/or go out of existence. So the PCGS slab might command a higher price now, but in 10 years nobody knows. Maybe opinions of NGC will go up. Maybe PCGS will mismanage their business. Maybe both companies will be under new ownership with unforseen consequences. Then you are left hoping that the older slabs still sell at a premium to the newer ones. This is just a long-winded suggestion to buy the coin and not the slab.

 

In this particular case (the Heritage example) it may have had more to tdo with the look of the coins themselves (remember "buy the coin not the holder").

 

I believe that in a previous thread, someone posted that one of the biggest reasons that PCGS DOES NOT grade many coins as MS-70, is because they feel that in the long run, many of the coins will "tone" in some way, and then their reputation will be "tarnished" because they graded the coin as MS-70. So, they grade more coins as MS-69 to protect their reputation....in the long run. Does anyone remember someone saying this, or was I just having a "flash back"?? LOL
Anyways.....Does anyone think that there is a FINE line between "buy the coin, not the slab"? If I buy, say a 2007 Washington Dollar, "Smooth Edge" error coin, I would definitely buy one graded by one of the top 3 TPGs. Isn't this like "buying the slab, not the coin"? Buying a coin like this, I could be fairly certain that the coin would be for real and not "messed" with.

swick

 

You can be fairly certin the coin is real (i.e. authentic), and the TPGs have a guarantee and have proven through their actions to make things right....

BUT, let me tell you a little secret, there are LOTS of "messed" with coins in every TPGs holders...Mike