Completing this Mercury Head Dime collection worth trying?

You might be right about reduced future collector interest due to a poorer population. At one time I wondered where the new generation of collectors would come from when my generation passed. But a recent thread ask members if they were under fifty (or some other age that I can't recall). I was surprised and happy when so many members responded.

 

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The mint lists the 1916-D Mercury Dime production at 264,000 but there are probably over 500,000( just an estimate could be more) of them out there. How can I say that? Because there are that many counterfeits out there. That's why I would only buy a coin like the 16-D in a PCGS or NGC slab.

Why is the dime so expensive? Three things, IMHO, determine a coins value- Rarity, eye appeal, and demand. There are plenty of coins rarer than the 16-D, but the perceived demand is high for this little coin, and as stated earlier, it's irritating to see that one empty space year after year after year and not filling it, because of its inflated cost.

Building an album set is on the decline, collectors are focusing on individual, or at the most sets, of coins rather than albums. Foreign coins, with fake rarities (they keep the mintage at around 5,000), such as being put out by the little islands who farm out their production, because they don't have their own mint, are also hurting the hobby. With rare exception, they don't appreciate in value, but new or uneducated collectors are buying them, because they are buying the hype.

Ending this rant, TV Coin Shows are starting to use words that they aren't supposed to- investment, guaranteed to appreciate, a truly rare coin. There is hope, I have Dish Network, which had tons of coin shows, but one by one they are going off the air or cutting back on their air time. The only one, and the one that charges the highest premium is the coin show on HSN, but I think that's because of the high viewership that channel has and if a coin shop comes on it, Mike makes a good pitch for a coin that is priced up to twice as much as the other high priced TV shows and people who are normally not coin collectors fall for his pitch.

I did it again, to long a post, really am trying to be more brief.

 

I'm working on one myself, but it hasn't seen any progress in 2 years.

 

Just a side note of trivia here.
The 2015 Red Book lists the mintage of the 1921 as 11,230,000 (not 1,230,000 which I believe is the correct number.)
I looked up the numbers in my 2015 and was wondering what gives? Figured it had to be wrong. Yup.
Also, the grading service population numbers, aren't they just how many they have graded? NOT survivor numbers? or do they actually take a guess at how many survive?

 

Also, I've had a set since I was 10 (50 years ago) and I still don't have the 21's or the 16D. But I like my set. Will fill a spot if one comes my way.

 

I'm in your age group and I just got the 21, see post above, but still have hopes for the 16-D.

The TV Shows use the PCGS and NGC numbers all the time. They are called the Population numbers, which in reality are the numbers of coins, for a particular series, that they have graded, not how many were minted.

I always laugh when they quote the population numbers for a common coin, which most people wouldn't bother to certify, as proof that the coin is rare.

 

I believe the 16-D dime's price is almost exclusively the result of its prior perception when collecting was predominantly out of pocket change. The same would apply to other "key" dates which for the Mercury dime also includes the '21, '21-d and 42/1. It was a communication limitation that has been made obsolete by the internet,

As to the collector base, I'd guesstimate that if the US active collector population is in the vicinity of two million maybe 50,000 or somewhat more attempt to collect the full series. However, the lopsided majority don't buy coins in the 16-d price range and this includes a graded AG-3 which costs about $400 now.

I expect this series to remain popular because the design has wide appeal and (US) collectors tend to favor their own coinage. However, I expect those who do not collect the series but bought one or a few coins in isolation in the past to do so much less or just buy one high quality type coin. The supply of high quality coins for this series is very large, likely much larger than indicated by the population reports, even considering duplicates. In the internet age, there are a vast number of alternatives which can be bought for the same money or much less than these "key" dates.

 

Keep in mind, the population report from the grading services is not accurate, they even admit it themselves. There are certain coins that if graded one grade higher, take a huge increase in value and their price goes up enormously. I'm referring to cracking out coins, which some dealers do on a regular basis. The grading service was offering something like 50c for each label returned to try and keep an accurate count, but most people who practice cracking out don't bother sending them in.

I've heard of one dealer who'll crack and send the same coin 20 or more times to get that higher grade when the difference can mean thousands of dollars. Remember, grading is not a science, but an art. If the third and most important grader (finalizer) had a bad night he can drop a coin in grade and not realize it.