Validity Of Population Reports

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How come you can still have a memory and I don't?

 

It was an extra cost option... did you pay the upcharge?????

 

Oh... so the data isn't available on the companies websites in some archive ?

Crap......

 

They have absolutely zero incentive to release the data.

 

So unless I buy the annuals at select time periods, no way to check the total number of coins over time that they each graded.

Sucks....

 

If you are interested in just a single date, you could try checking auction archives. Heritage and others often mention relative population numbers in their auction listings.

That would be very annoying if you're trying to check a large number of dates, though.

 

I was just looking to check a few select coins -- Saints, Franklins, other popular collecting coins, etc. -- and see how their certification numbers have changed over time:

• 1986-1996...the 1st decade of the TPGs
• 1996-2006...TPGs take off and are the standard
• 2006-2023...crackouts and resubmissions but hoards and mini-hoards swelling the figures.

There is such a big difference on whether we have tons of supply still out there or whether or not it's just a declining percentage of a much larger base. Even experts with DECADES of experience here as dealers are at opposite ends of the debate.

 

If you are only looking for a few data points, current data is posted on their website.

That's what most people do, focus on a few key, semi-key, or common (depending on which axe you want to grind) and use those.

 

we've always been at war with eastasia.

 

Like what ? We know about gradeflation, I was thinking that the trend over time should give people an idea as to whether the supply of coins was steady or decreasing over time.

You would think it would be dropping over time as the denominator (the base) gets bigger and people send in their coins the first decade of the TPGs.

 

Was interested in the trend for total population, not even so much the distribution of the grades (though that would be a secondary interest).

Obviously, it's much easier for a mini-hoard or a SDB to impact the top-end of a rare coin population than the TOTAL population for that same coin.

 

Excellent points as usual, GD, but it remains one of my pet peeves: NOBODY at the top of the professional associations or organizations seems to be helping to formulate hard data points to go by.

Not the TPGs to let us know if the hidden ungraded coins out there -- SDBs, individual held, stored in an attic, etc. -- are in the tens of thousands or millions for a series like Saints.

Do we know how many Franklin collectors might be passing on and/or selling their collections from the 1950's or 1960's in the next 10-15 years ? Is it hundreds of registry-comparable sets...or thousands...or tens of thousands ?

Do we know if attendance at FUN, Long Beach, or ANA by both dealers and the public is up, down, or flat vs. pre-2020 conventions ?

Instead of guessing, we should have hard numbers or something approaching hard numbers. I see well-respected dealers totally at odds on the percentage of gold coins that have been "found" with some saying it's 70% or higher and others saying it's 30% with decades of runway ahead of us. Collectors of cars, art, etc...all have hard numbers for their little niches.

I'm not talking perfection, just ballpark numbers. It's better than nothing, right ?

 

Why?

I mean where is the value/benefit to the people providing the data (for free) that you want?

I'm absolutely sure that if you approach the TPGs with a blank check and are willing to sign an NDA, they would provide the data you want. I know it mostly exists (there might be data that wasn't preserved in moving data between systems such as the exact certification date).

But just because you have an itch (interest in the information...)

 

The supposed population tracking silliness fell apart the very first time a collector cracked a Holder and did not send the sticker in for the 50 cent credit, and it never recovered.

It was a good advertising gimmick to state the "population" when selling a piece and collectors jumped on that bandwagon, until it was realized "...wait a minute, sumpin' aint' right with the arithmetic....".

Everything else concerning the quest for info in this Thread is finger pulling hoping to elicit noise, and just as useless.

 

BS3, it's not PROPRIETARY data. It's basically released -- or was released -- with the Annual Population Reports. I'm just talking certification totals and using them to figure out if the supply of coins getting added to the certified population total is increasing or decreasing in absolute and relative (%) numbers over time. Nothing "TOP SECRET" at all.

For all I know, others have the data and the trend isn't determinitave. No idea.

All I am saying is....it would be interesting to see the PCGS & NGC certified totals for a common coin series and a more rare coin type over time from the 1990's through 2023 and see if a trend develops in the last few years. That's it.

Everybody wants to GUESS and I'm saying I think we can make at least a more INFORMED guess if we had data and a trend over time.

 

That is not a more informed guess, but if you are enjoying your quest, have at it.

 

How is having more data not MORE informed, Charley ?