Serious Question (about grading)

How consistent are the top two grading companies? (PCGS & NGC)

I'd like your answers to be given as an estimate of accuracy, percentage-wise. So for example, say we have 100 coins and we know all of them are grade MS65 with 100% accuracy. By 100% accurate I mean each coin has been thoroughly studied and assigned a grade to the precise exactitude as defined by all technical standards. Or we could come up with the hypothetical scenario that a machine equipped with a super computer and lasers scans the coin and determines its grade within 0.0000000000001 of accuracy.

Now say we submitted those 100 perfectly graded coins to one of the grading companies. How many would you say come back MS65? 90%? 75%? 99%? What is your estimate?

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

If we had such an exact standard, there's no doubt they would both meet that standard to ISO 9001 quality. They're not unskilled. But - and this is the point which makes your question moot -there is no such accurate grading standard.

If there were, TPG's wouldn't be necessary because any halfway committed numismatist would be able to reliably grade coins without them.

To answer the underlying question, expressed as a percentage I'm willing to bet they get the overwhelming majority of grades correct to a standard you and I wouldn't argue with. We only get to see the egregious errors online, not the thousands upon thousands of the ones they got "right." Heck, a majority of the "GTG" threads here end up with the membership in general agreement with the TPG, and a lot of them are posted because of the OP's dissatisfaction with the grade.

 

It gets even more tricky when you take time into consideration. For example, there are a lot of coins already in holders that were graded years ago that will now upgrade if resubmitted.

 

Well, if you look at it that way, then they're not getting very many right now, or they weren't then, and the only ones they're getting right now are the ones we complain were undergraded.

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that NGC & PCGS, together, have graded about 60 million coins. What do you think would be an acceptable error ratio?

Chris

 

Not to mention white balance. Blasted sure my camera goes beyond those means.......

 

Not everyone will agree with the standards that PCGS and NGC use, but both are remarkably consistent for the standards they use.

Or you could say they got them both right, just that right changed. It really gets back to the point you made that their is no right answer with grading.

 

Well, let's first agree that "error rate" isn't the ones you and I would disagree with by one full grade or less, just the "what were they thinking?" ones. With that in mind, I would expect the error rate to be well within the last couple tenths of one percent of the total. Then again, that could still be a couple thousand coins per year.

 

With the amount of money you pay to have coins graded with PCGS & NGC - shouldn't they have "professional" grading standards? Otherwise just ship them off to ANACS - which is supposedly just as accurate but not given the reputation!

 

A couple thousand per year? Two-tenths of one percent over 28 years or so would be about 430 per year. Let's be skeptical and say 1,000 errors per year or 500 for each company.

Chris

 

Well i guess ill be the first and post an actual number.....

Im going with 85% accurate.

 

Nice. Thanks for answering the question.

 

What's the point of paying someone to "grade" then?

Either way grading companies are laughing all the way to the bank.

 

It's true, they are getting rich. At least the owners, and the rest of the workers are earning a living or just barely. You can't get an objective grade because there isn't one. No matter the standards applied, there's some interpretation involved and subjectivity. I think the TPGs are far better at gauging market grades, detecting problems, etc, in comparison to most collectors. And most collectors respect or at least recognize their expertise, so a slab helps identify a grade buyer and seller can agree on. The independent opinion is helpful, and I think that's why they are raking in so much money.

 

The question that the OP has asked is nearly impossible to answer. It's asking how often is someone's opinion wrong. It all depends on who you ask.

The job of the TPG's is to give an educated estimate and opinion on the condition of a coin. Something that is very important when someone sells a coin to a buyer. The seller has skin in the game in that they want as much money as they can get for a specific coin. Whereas the buyer wants to buy the coin for as little money as possible. Since a coins condition typically is what dictates it's price, the dealer will sell the coin at grade X and the buyer will want to buy it at grade Y. Both have an opinion on the condition of the coin, both rarely coincide. The TPG is an outside opinion that typically both buyer and seller agree with. This then makes the transaction much easier between both buyer and seller, as someone else's opinion on the condition of the coin has made the deal seem fair.

Now a person can send a coin to a TPG and when it comes back, disagrees with the TPG's opinion. This happens a lot. What can happen frequently is that the person whom sent the coin in will simply crack it out of the plastic holder and send it somewhere else hoping for an opinion that is closer to their own.

So asking how accurate a TPG service is, is like asking the accuracy of a movie critic's opinion. They are all subjective and you either agree with their opinion or you don't. There is no way to measure the accuracy of a TPG unless you measure it to your own opinion.

Right now, if you asked me how accurate the opinions of PCGS are, I'd say about 50%. But that's because I've had a few coins come back recently that I totally did not agree with. And that is my opinion.

 

I don't disagree.

 

Zip and GD, are you saying that the TPG grading standards have been diminished?

 

85%

 

I,ve always thought around 90%...I lay out any 10 graded coins and 1 always catches my attention. Most of these in question may be graded higher than they should, but sometimes too low, but usually in the higher. I think older slabs may favor lower grades but newer slabs seem a little over. I always try to determine the correct grade myself but sometimes I don,t get it right either...it,s a real art, and not as easy as it seems by some.