Bad US coin buys

Nothing in the future is certain, but I would be HIGHLY surprised if the market price of 1940's mercury dimes in 66FB plummets in the next year. Nothing in the price history indicates a bubble. Let's revisit this thread a year from now to see whether auction prices have significantly moved. Let's take a 1941-S in PCGS MS66FB just for simplicity. The last two auction selling prices were $54. Let's check this in a year and see if the last two auction selling prices at that time have meaningfully dropped. If they don't drop, will you concede you are wrong?

 

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I think the worst coin buys are low-grade and filler key-date coins. More people are abandoning set collecting for type collecting as the key dates are getting atrociously expensive. Eventually, the over-inflated prices of the key dates will collapse.

 

I love all the Mercuries, Beautiful coins. Glad i purchased 1 2016 gold Mercury dime. A lot of folks don't like them, But i think the U.S. Mint did a great job on them. It's to commemorate the 100th anniversary. I'm not picky with the coin being a little smaller than the silver Merc, Or full bands as well as the finning. I leave that baby in OGP..

 

Only time will tell but not necessarily. It's really only over inflated if it spikes up real high for a short period of time. Like you mentioned people are abandoning set collecting and newer collectors seem to be more of the type set type or the buy whatever I like type. Those types do tend to gravitate more towards either super high grades, keys, or semi keys. When you only buy one or a handful of a certain type there is a natural inclination to go for one that is somewhat special in some way by comparison to the common ones.

 

It's a shame there's no "hate post" button so I could hate my last post. I was feeling rather grumpy for other reasons some of them related to how few states quarter collectors have moved on to collect other coins of any sort.

Most "modern bashers" mean no harm and are merely expressing their beliefs about the value, importance, or sustainability of modern coins. They aren't doing it to hurt newbi or modern collectors but rather because they don't want to see them get hurt financially or emotionally or because they simply hate modern coins. Of course a few have never had such noble motives and are simply trying to lead collectors into things in which they have large "investments". If World Colonial is a modern basher at all he does belong to the former category. Much of our difference is one of perspective anyway. I believe that coin collecting may not have yet seen its heyday. There's no reason there can't be millions and millions of collector just like there were between 1935 and 1965. With the whole world now buying coins rather than only US citizens there's no reason there can't be tens of millions of collectors in the future.

Tens of millions of collectors simply can't all collect "rare coins" because there aren't enough to go around. They can't all collect 5 step 1968-S nickels because there's only one of them.

There's simply no reason that I know that Jeffersons can't get far more popular and their price structure change completely. But so long as people are telling newbies that moderns are less desirable than other coins (for any reason) the number of people who stay and advance in this hobby will be reduced.

 

I have exchanged hundreds of posts with you elsewhere and I have never either stated or implied that anyone should not collect moderns if they prefer them. That I do not choose to share your enthusiasm for the coins you prefer is another consideration entirely and hardly "bashing". In my 10 years on coin forums, I have never encountered anyone else who takes offense as easily as you do when anyone has the "audacity" to question the merits of the coins they like.

The extract you quoted from my last post is an accurate description of collector perception of this series (Jefferson nickels) in the AGGREGATE TODAY and SINCE INCEPTION in 1938. Additionally, I have yet to see any reason from anyone anywhere in any post I have ever read remotely supporting that a series such as this one will experience a "quantum leap" in popularity where it will make any noticeable difference in the future price level except as already exists today for the specializations I already listed.

As for why the chances are remote for the series generically, I have given you many reasons, the first being that I see the chances as zero that coin collecting will become sufficiently popular to absorb the astronomical supply since most Americans are almost certainly going to either be poorer or a lot poorer years or decades from now compared to today. I state Americans because I also know that foreigners are certainly not going to like any US moderns in any number where it will be noticeable in the price level either.

 

This is modern bashing even if you hadn't done it before.

You simply assume there is an "astronomical supply" that can't be absorbed even by an infinite number of collectors. The reality is some of these coins like nice XF '42-D's are far underrated even for current demand. A few million more collectors isn't going to decrease this price. Some of the later coins might provide even larger surprises because they were never saved at all. How many nice '71-P's do you think exist in XF or better? The only reason this is a face value coin is that the series is so undercollected people don't even know it's tough.

What I wonder is how many newbies have poured their heart and soul into a Jefferson collection and then heard somneone say it's just junk that is sure to languish for all time. How many newbies gave up collecting states quarters because dealers laughed in their face? How do we get a new generation of collectors by telling people any coin that costs less than $10,000 is just garbage and not worthy of serious collectors?

Who is going to buy $10,000 coins at all if there are no new collectors?

The hobby gains when we get more collectors. Collecrtors become numismatists and contribute to the hobby in many ways. Telling people that the coins they like exist in astronomical numbers would be counterproductive even if it were true and the reality is that there is simply no truth to it. You'd know there was no truth to it if youtried to put together a simple collection like those who are being driven from the hobby tried to do.

I don't care who collects what but I sure as hell care about the health of the hobby and what I believe is best for it. I believe growth is best for it and the best means to achieve growth is to be far more inclusive. This would prove a self fullfilling prophesy and even those states quarters would become far more interesting. The simple fact is thatnot even all of these are extremely common.

 

This modern bashing as well and probably highly misleading.

Foreigners have no experience with silver and gold in their pockets either. What do they care if a US coin is modern or not. Indeed if bashers drive enough people out of the hobby then the classic coins are going to fall precipitously in price as the baby boomers retire and sell their collections. This won't happen with moderns because the number in collections is far lower.

People are collecting by type more than ever. Moderns have more types. There's every probability that moderns will do better than classics for this reason as well.

I think you're you're behind the times.

 

Well, devil be hanged, I like 'moderns', and collect 'em, and could care a folly of what others think.........if they never appreciate in value, who the devil cares? Surely not me. I never got into this hobby looking to make money.

 

If you're talking about collector only issues yea the supply on most is astronomical but that's really not the case for circulating stuff. As mentioned no one is saving them and frankly the percentage that could even be a premium quality example as soon as they're struck is quite low. If any old example sure the supply is endless but very few is any collectors will just settle for any old example of anything.

We're just conditioned as humans to equate age with value, this is older it must be worth more like people do with antiques. The ironic part is I could find a premium S VDB or 14-D Merc with much less effort than it would take to find a true high end modern for a lot of things yet the modern is the one that we think is "too available".

 

Well said - I don't collect moderns anymore, but I did at one point. Sold it all when gold and platinum was way up. Did nicely on those coins. Probably made more on those than any of the classics I have collected and sold. People should collect what they like.

 

..Show me a classic coin graded MS/PR 70 ...

 

Tell me when you find that 14-D merc

 

A very rare coin indeed!

 

Lol 16-D womp womp

Unless Dan Carr bails me out

 

The term "moderns" is way too broad so it doesn't make sense to "bash" them.

Astronomical mintages notwithstanding, I often find myself wondering which coins I will be kicking myself over a few decades from now. Kind of like the Baby Boomers whose moms threw out their baseball cards after they left home.

I'm sure there will be surprises, but I am convinced that those future surprises are not residing currently in hyped up slabs with fancy labels.

 

No, it isn't "modern bashing". I disagree with your opinion and you just do not like it. It isn't my fault your perception of these coins differs from the consensus.

As for the supply, it isn't as large as the majority of collectors presumably believe but it is greater than the overwhelming majority of coins. On the NGC Message Boards, I have already explained to you that these coins (US circulating moderns) are more common than 98% to 99% of all coins ever struck, in equivalent quality.

You know exactly what my claims are since I have been very explicit. I have told you that generically, most are almost certainly either a Judd R-1 or R-2 as a PCGS MS-66 and this includes even a coin such as the 1982-P quarter (which we have discussed many times) which you consider scarce. Many of them are certainly multiple more times available than the minimum of 1250 necessary to qualify for an R-1.

As for your claims of a few million more collectors, I consider it a complete fantasy. It isn't going to happen in US collecting unless you are talking about doing so at face value or near it.

 

The extract you took from my post has absolutely nothing to do with your post. I was referring to buying of US moderns by collectors outside the United States.

As for your last comment about me being behind the times, this reminds me of your prior comment where you claimed I was "struck in the 1960's". No, I am not, you are.

As I told you before, if this were the pre-internet age, I would agree with you somewhat or a lot more. But in the internet age, anyone can choose from at least 10,000 series and 250,000 coins. No one is limited to collecting out of pocket change which is a primary reason recent US classics attained their popularity. Except for specialization which is always going to have a (very) limited collector base, there is zero reason to believe these coins will ever sell for more than nominal prices under the current US price level.

 

You haven't been a party to my prior post exchanges with cladking. I am aware of what you included in your post, either from what cladking has told me before or learned from elsewhere.

Cladking uses quality criteria that isn't used by more than a minimal number of collectors. This should be apparent because if his criteria was the norm or anywhere near it, TPG grading would align a lot more closely to it. I use the TPG standards in my estimates because it is the one used by most collectors.

Going by the current population reports, the price level and common sense, I "guesstimate" that most US circulating moderns are actually a Judd R-1 with 1250+ in PCGS MS-66 with most of the remainder an R-2 with 501-1250. I have already acknowledged to cladking that there are some exceptions such as 71-P and 72-P Ikes but don't see any reason to believe that most are generally any scarcer than what I am telling you. In lower grades such as MS-65, larger or much larger though yes, I agree that not all collectors will settle for this grade and the coins aren't good enough for everyone.

I specifically use (PCGS) MS-66 because it is usually the "under grade" or one grade below the "grade rarity" and the highest grade most collectors of these series are likely to ever own or buy.

I have never claimed my general comments apply to "grade rarities", all die varieties (most which will never be widely collected anyway), "special designation strikes" such as FS nickels or preferred toning.

 

This quote here, this is what I am talking about when I told you I have never encountered anyone who is so easily offended as you.

You are telling me that because I don't believe most of these coins will ever be worth more than nominal prices, I am calling them "junk". And if you deny this, then go re-read the initial post to which you replied because this is exactly what I stated.

I can disagree with your price forecasts (which I do), your scarcity claims (which I mostly also do) and your opinion of the relative numismatic merits of these coins (which I also certainly do) and this still doesn't mean I either stated or implied what you claimed I did.

My original and subsequent posts mean exactly what I stated. You chose to interpret my comments otherwise.