A recent member has made the comment that the market has great optimism. From a dealers perspective, this holds a little truth. While I do not share the high hopes, the market is certainly strong today in limited areas. The keys and high grade (MS-65+) market is extremely strong, however the common dates are leveling off quickly. Many who watch the general market are preparing for a correction. I tend to follow this belief. A quick check through the greysheet shows very little + signs for any material not considered key or better date material. The levels on the auction circuit are also following these trends. I prepared a thread earlier on investment coins and I stick to that previous post. Coins should be bought for the enjoyment that they bring their owner. Be careful out there.
We have exchanged views on this before. I personally focus on market fundamentals. "Coins" cannot be an "investment" for many reasons. Perhaps most basically, they are not uniform. The idea that you can "buy and hold" is also a fallacy. Yes, I do have a few items that have "performed well." We all do. However, the arithmetic is unforgiving. We all carry very much more dead weight. Also, the so-called "performers" fail against a. inflation (basically) and b. what you could have done with the money. The only way to make money in numismatics (or anything else) is to buy and sell, buy and sell, and buy and sell. Many small gains compound over time. Another basic fallacy is to focus on the material, instead of yourself. Coins cannot be an "investment" because no two people get the same price for the same material. Therefore, if you want to profit, you have to be a "mercantile person". I certainly know no way to bottle that. As for the current run-up in prices. I do not see it as being significant and neither is the necessay downside. Technical traders know the "head and shoulders" model. What this tells us, truly, is that up and down are pretty much the norm. Up. Down. Down. Up. What else makes sense?
As I have said previously and have been saying for some time - we are due for a correction. I know of too many examples where collectors sold coins a few months ago and in the past week or two bought the very same coins back again for 50 - 60% of what they sold them for. Personally - I look forward to a correction as it would allow me to purchase many coins I could otherwise not afford.
