Determining fair price for U.S. gold coins

With the sometimes volatile fluctuation of precious metal prices, is there any other way other than completed auctions to come up with "what is a reasonable price to pay for coin X"?

For example:

• MS64 $20 Saint
• Common year
• Greysheet ("CDN")= $1,340
• Gold price per ounce (as of this posting) = $1107.50/oz
• Melt value = $1071.50

Based on that information, and understanding that the dealer needs to make a living...

... does an asking price of $1,525 sound reasonable?

 

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"Asking price"? Are you buying or selling?

Generally speaking, with common generic graded saints, as with similar often traded types, the CDN isn't that bad.

 

Sorry. I'm buying.

 

My apologies... but I just wanted to be sure I understood you correctly.

Again, CDN isn't a bad tool in this type of situation, but I wouldn't make blanket assumptions regarding it; I don't know who the dealer is or the venue. Since this would be, if I understand you correctly, a generic purchase, perhaps just compare with the competition. After all, generic type/grade offerings are done this way for a reason, and if you're not getting to choose the individual coin you like most, what "privilege" would you be paying up for? It's certainly thoughtful of you to consider the dealer's end, but with something like this (again, if generic) you're not buying his eye, knowledge, experience, etc but a sight unseen coin and TPG assigned grade. Why pay more from guy X if the same on the blind thing is offered cheaper from guy Y. A quick check of APMEX (only) shows $1358/check or $1412/card for generic PCGS64.

If not a generic purchase, then yes... paying more may be perfectly reasonable, especially if there's something about the coin that sets it apart.

 

It is not a "generic bullion" type of purchase; it is for a specific coin from a specific dealer. Sorry again that I am making this more difficult due to my fogginess...

... and I don't even drink alcohol!

 

That's 400 over spot I know he is trying to make money and the graded coins don't wow me, I buy coins to sale in the future if money can't be made off of it i don't need it, you may be diffrent good luck

 

Usually at my coin shop, common year Double Eagles, Eagles, and half eagles below XF are sold at "spot price" as if they were a full oz/full half oz/full quarter oz of gold. For example, a common year VF-35 Double Eagle would be $1,107, because that's the spot price of an ounce of gold, even though a Double Eagle only has 0.97 ounces of gold, so it's about a $35 premium. A Half Eagle would be $554, because that's half the spot price of gold, etc.

Quarter Eagles are priced quite a bit higher than 1/8 the spot price though, and of course gold dollars and $3 coins are much more than 1/20 or 1/6.67 of the spot price

 

Unless there is something special about the coin, $1525 seems too high.

 

We'll get there...

I didn't mean generic bullion, but generic type/grade, which is the way many common date saints are often sold. Anyway, comparing the price of well circulated examples to certified 64s isn't going to do you much good in this situation, so compare apples to apples. CDN is comparable, although slightly under APMEX cash, and should probably be a fair baseline for you. I wouldn't expect (if an actual dealer) to go much below this, not because of collectors but larger small spread dealers and buy lists. He'll likely know where gens are selling retail as well. Above this though, you'll need to assess the coin and decide what it's worth to you. If a very average example, you already know what you'll pay for likely the same elsewhere.

 

Here are some pictures of the coin.

 

Imo, too high. CDN bid is $1340 for common dates.

 

I wouldn't mind paying CDN bid for common dates, but buyers on Ebay are willing to pay b/t $40-$50 over which is too high for a common coin.

 

So in essence you're saying the same thing.

Do you know the and his situation? I don't and therefore am unwilling to give absolutes. We can say "common" all we wish, but I've a feeling you know as well as I that all are not equal, and being married to CDN and worrying about a few dollars is a fine way to screw one's self. If the coin is in front of him and he likes it, would you still suggest he save a little money and perhaps buy generic, or go home with what he likes? Had we this same conversation a few years ago he would've lost regardless.

 

14-S is a common date and I wouldn't pay extra premium. Strange, At times you will see small gold pieces sell for back of CDN on Ebay but not $20 gold pieces which is more common.

 

Too high. I don't find that particular coin appealing at all luster looks strange and strike could be a lot better. A good source would be ha you can often buy$20s for the reserve or wholesale or just over spot for common ones. Just look for nice examples and cherrypick

 

Not when you factor in shipping and the selling fees there. $40-50 is around 4 percent of the sale price which is reasonable for the convenience of having something delivered that wasn't other wise available. Plus with ebay bucks and their cupons ect it often comes out to be a wash for the buyer if they time right.

People like big coins better imo.

 

I believe you'll find that 1914-D isn't a generic coin. The "generics" for that type coin, in that grade are the 1924, 1925, and 1928.

I wouldn't pay any attention to current "greysheet" pricing, as the publisher has recently adjusted what I believe, and the publisher has stated are prices of their making/liking, downward ~10% while the real market PM prices were rising. Please review recent actual market sales prices.

Before their recent downward adjustment, their listed dealer wholesale "bid" price quoted for that coin "raw" was $1550. CORRECTION!! Someone posted that the coin is a 1914-S, which recently had a quoted wholesale raw dealer "bid" price of $1360.

I suggest you do an eBay or Heritage sales "comps" for that coin.

JMHO

 

I'm a buyer who follows this "market" quite closely, and if you "see" any U.S. pre-1933 certified (i.e. authenticated) Gold coinage at "back of CDN" please PM me for a "finders fee", amount of my choice.

 

This is the last 3 coins that I bought back of GS bid. I'm sure there are a few more if I look in the safety deposit box.

 

I've no idea what you paid for those coins, but I believe you'll find the current "Grey Sheet" schedule listing them as ~$3860, while current archive comps are at ~$5500 or more.

You are correct about the higher grade smaller denomination Gold coins where one grade difference lists a ~250% quoted price difference (e.g. MS64 $5 Indian @ $2075, Ms63 @ $820).

I believe you'll find that the current unsupported quotes aren't reflected in realistic normal published markets, as were past quotes.

As stated, when you "see" the "low offer" sales prices, I'll anticipate/appreciate your PM, but we both recognize these strange anomalies in single grade pricing quotes. The TPG possibly wouldn't exist with their unstandardized market grading techniques, if it weren't for said "anomalies".

JMHO