Is it really possible that only PCGS and NGC get it right?

Simple. You have provided the answer in your price chart!

A coin's grade is determined and then certified. The way grades are interpreted changes over longer periods of time than the way prices change. Grading practice (GRADES) has evolved very little the 10 years your chart covers; yet price changes have been huge!

Thanks for the chart

 

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Looks like about a 26% increase since 1995.
49,000 to 64,900.

 

Dumb me thought Doug posted the chart Thanks Tube.

I can only do six things at once so I'll need to concentrate on what I am doing here better.

 

Doug did post the first chart, I just ran the second chart out longer to show a 20 year increase in prices.

 

Doug's underlying point stands, that the arena has a ton more players in it than just TPG grading standards with a direct connection to pricing. I just see a normal price progression factoring inflation and a slow but steady increase in the amount of money in numismatics (if not the number of collectors), meanwhile the TPG's lurch around drunkenly with their standards due to factors not necessarily having anything to do with what people are paying for coins on the street.

What I'm seeing here is poor control of their internal environment over the long term, allowing themselves to be led by the nose by market conditions or maybe just plain overwhelmed by the conflicting standards of quality and profitability and not gettin' it done. I feel very strongly the need here to apply the standard of "never ascribe to malice than which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

 

Well said, and it is a sure thing that the TPGS may (wink, wink) be influenced by outside interests to remain profitable. Ideally, they would be endowed independent of the coin business and could ignore any outside influences/pressure! The first ANACS was sorta like that. Then the standards in the market changed and left them behind for their "unrealistic" standards forcing a sale.

 

Still, any changes in TPGS grading standards takes place over long periods vs price changes.

 

Here is a quote from a modern numismatic book , what do you guys think?

It is important for the beginner, or even the advanced collector to notice- THE TPGs VALUE coins, they don't GRADE them. This is quite a shocking concept to many when they first hear it. The TPG will attempt to place a grade on a coin corresponding to the VALUE a coin has in the marketplace. In this sense, they function more a appraisers then they do graders.

 

But remember...value and grade have become tied together so TPGS's do "grade" coins based partially on their value.

What book?

 

Art and Science of Grading Coins, Jason Poe.

 

I would agree to an extent. A 63 will never be "valued" as a 67 ect. Some things do get net graded down such as copper grading goes, but 1 point either direction possibly 2 in extreme cases seems to be the extent of eye appeal market grading.

 

I would more or less agree, provided you restrict the statement to mint state coins.

 

58 to 63!

 

With the grading standards of today most 58s are significantly nicer than 61s/62s. Often times AU58 really is the TPG way of saying this would be a 63/64 but we aren't 100 percent sure its uncirculated and aren't willing to back the value of such a high grade coin we aren't sure of. They cant label it a 62 or 61 to save face so 58 is the only option.

 

We KNOW when a coin is uncirculated or has a little rub. Most professional dealers know too. It's a game. I've sold many, many AU's for Unc money to well known professionals and since they knew more about the coin market than I did, they still made a profit.

Coins with a big price jump must be "solid."

 

I have an extensive library; yet have never heard of the book or Jason Poe! The excerpt is pretty good.

How about some examples...still waiting.

 

Well AU's such as 1804 $1, Brasher Doubloon, 1870-S Half dime are valued/graded more for what they are than their actual physical condition.

 

Yes, you do know him. He posts here.