According to the collector's universe message board Coin World will report on the estimated Washington Smoothies out there in next weeks's issue. From crunching the numbers on ebay of NGC/PCGS graded coins relative to raw smoothies I've predicted about 60,000 all along and supposedly this article might agree with me. The great thing about this coin is that the counterfiet issue will force most owners to get them graded to alleviate any fraud concerns that a potential buyer might have, so we should have a very good indication in the next few months of what is really out there. Initially, the consensus was around 300,000 and then 150,000 to 170,000 became the number and now it looks like possibly 60,000. Personally, I've been eating these up on ebay and I now have about 30 of these coins with a basis of around $2300 and I feel more comfortable with this investment than any other one in my life. I'm a novice collector and I do know that 1995 W Silver Eagles go for around $5000 with a population of 30,000 and prior to collecting coins I never would have thought that a population this large could support that kind of price tag, but evidently it does and this is why I'm confident that these Washington errors could be selling in the thousands within a few years if indeed there is only about 60,000 out there. I also like the aspect that there will probably be over a hundred million Presidential Dollar collectors out there and of course this will be the key coin to completing the set. Of course, if smoothies begin to surface in each series then the prices will probably be contained, but if the Mint has this under control and really is embarrassed by this incident and thus no more surface then I say these coins are heading to $1000+.
I certainly wish you good luck with your investment, however I must point out that the 1995W SAE is not a variety, so your comparison is not apples-to-apples. Secondly, to assume there are 100,000,000 collectors of these coins is ridiculous -- that's more than 1 out of every 3 people in the US and it is extremely unlikely that all, or even a signficant percentage, will want this error. Lastly, errors are rarely if ever considered the "key" to any series. All that said, your cost basis seems to be pretty low, and if you have a few high grade examples, you stand to make quite a bit of money, but I wouldn't count your chickens before they hatch. Take care....Mike
I agree, but I'm cautiously waiting to see how many are out there and hopefully the US Mint will put a number out. I've been actively monitoring these boards and reading coin world and other magazines trying to stay atop of what is going on with these coins. First, my collecting experience is limited and goes as far as about 100 coins that were given to me when I was a kid which was about 25 years ago. Furthermore, when I was a teenager I bought some proof sets from the 60's and 50's which I sold last year for financial reasons, but I did make a nice return on these sets that I'm sure beat the stock market. Initially, I was hesitant to buy these coins when I learned about them in late February thinking that they would pop up all over the place as more rolls were opened, but evidently this never happened. Next, I was reluctant to buy any since I feared that I might buy some from someone that sanded them down. Finally, from watching ebay there appeaws to be one person (instantauctions) that has a hoard of these which seems to have kept a lid on prices and unfortunately I have no idea how many he has, but lately I have been pulling the trigger on a few auctions and I have bought 4 65's and 1 66 hoping that this instantauction guy is almost out and prices will begin to climb from there. I believe if coinworld confirms 60,000 out there then these fly, but if there are over a 100k then I can't see these shooting up in the near term. Heck when the presidential series is over 10 years from now there will probably be about 8 or 9 billion presidential coins out there (200 million per president times 45 presidents) and can you imagine if only 60,000 smooth edges ever made it out there out of 8 or 9 billion? This should be very interesting to see what happens and what the Mint concludes in their investigation.
Does anyone know the relative pop of coins with errant lettering on the edge? I have one which has multiple letters scattered around the edge with both normal and mirror imprints. Thanks
Bought a few slabbed ones myself. When I finally talked myself into purchasing a few , I saw these coins as part of the George Washington set. If it goes up in price great, if it goes down well that is just part of it. I will never try to sell them anyhow. Personally that is not why I bought the George error coins. Much like the state hood quarters, I got them because i wanted them. Still a lot of speculation about the mintage. Probably will never really know the true amount. As far as an investment , I think it is a roll of the dice. If you feel good about it, go for it. As been said many times many way , time will tell. I hope it really does well . It can only help the coin collecting world . Disclaimer The opinions are mine and mine alone. I accept no responsibility for anything I say or do
leadfoot I agree and disagree If population were the sole factor and my 1995 w Silver Eagle analogy were correct then you could make the argument that the Wisconsin leafs should also be selling for $5000 or more because we now have a pretty good idea that there are only less than 30,000 high and low leafs out there, but obviously these aren't selling for $5000 or more, but only a few hundred dollars, so you do have a point there that you can't just go by population figures. The leafs were also a well published error, but the problem with these errors was that many thought it was a deliberate act at the US Mint and on the other hand many thought it was just a die gouge. If it had been confirmed by the mint that it was a deliberate act then I bet these would be selling in the thousands now, but instead they attributed it to a machinery defect. On the other hand, we know that the MInt has confirmed these Washngton Dollars as being a major mistake on their part and one could make the argument that in essence we now have one presidential coin out there with a mintage of 300 million and another that could be as low as 60,000. Once again, there is no "was it a die gouge or deliiberate act factor here", but instead a clear cut error that escaped the mint. I guess my point is and why I'm so pumped about these coins is the 37 3 legged buffalo was just a die mess up along with the 55 double die and the Bison Buffalo speared nickel and you could go through coins all day and find some kind of die errors, but here we have something that is very uncommon relative to the die errors mentioned above- a coin that totally missed part of the production process and not just another well publicized die gouge or die error like the 55 double die. For example, how many other errors are there out there that escaped the mint without the date, without in god we trust, without five cents, one cent, etc...?? Very few because if they did the coin would most likely be a blank planchet, so here we have this unique edging process that hasn't happened since the 30's paving the way for such an error to occur and of course it has occurred. I mean we are talking about a US Coin with no date on it and is there any other coins out there from the US Mint with no date on them??? I have no idea because I'm not an expert, but I do know that there are many examples of die gouges such as the 37 3 legged buffalo, the 55 double die, and even possibly the Wisconsin leafs. I just know from my experience from talking to dealers and reading message boards if they had been a deliberate act (WI Leafs) then they would have really gone up in price and we all know these smoothies weren't some die gouge, but instead in essence a deliberate act at the US Mint regardless if someone did it purposely or accidently, thus resulting in my opinion that we know have a seperate presidential coin with no date along with the other pertinent information. Of course, I'm biased and I have a vested interest in these coins and I'm even telling my relatives to put a few away for the long term with the conclusion that these are not only unique errors that have never occured at the US Mint before (once again unlike the common die gouges or errors that surface every few years), but also part of something that could be as popular as the state quarter program and thus you will not only have the hard core coin collectors buying these up, but also investors and entreprenuers like myself who are limited coin collectors, but have enough information to know that these errors are out there and are like what the heck I will put one away and take my chances for only a hundred bucks or so. As for your 100 million collector argument I laugh at that also when the US Mint claims that there are close to 150 milllion state quarter collectors out there with the full understanding that there aren't 150 million state quarter collectors out there buying NGC slabbed state quarters or other state quarters that that cost more than well a quarter, but instead the bulk are just saving each state here and there which any person could do with a few dollars in their pocket, but 150 million is such of a large number and if only 1% are serious collectors then this translates into still a significant number of 1.5 million and if the same numbers pan out with the presidential dollars then we may have this unique presidential dollar with a mintage of only 60,000 and well over a million collectors wanting one. Once again, I agree there isn't going to be millions of collectors flocking to ebay to buy these because they call themselves presidential dollar collectors because the other day they put one away, but if you closely watch ebay everyday you have a few large hoarders that are dumping these as fast as they can which is probably attributed to their basis only being $1 plus $12 or $14 in grading fees and the market is absorbing this dumping which I believe will subside shortly. Finally, going back to your apples to apples argument, 30,000 of these 1995 W silver eagles are only going to be sought by the hard core coin collectors which I know is still in the few million whereas with these Washington errors you not only have the hard core coin collector as being part of the target market, but also the entreprenuers, investors, and a smaill percentage of the presidential dollar collectors who were drawn into these Washington smoothies from all the media frenzy of which i can relate to since a USA TOday article about the Wisconsin leafs got me to be an investor in these leaf errors which I otherwise would have never knnow about, but I'm sure all the hard core coin collectors knew about. Oh well, as you can see I've spent about an hour arguing my case and these message boards won't affect the prices, but I am open to negative and positve criticism about these coins as I hope to continue to buy more.
Wash dollars Of course now, if the mint created this excitement to increase the popularity of this dollar, than all bets are off, and the price will be another Jack and Jill. My self, i am looking to buy a $1000.00 case of these babies and hope to get lucky. BWJR
I think everyone made some good points. It is great to see both sides of the the coin so to speak. johnboy, man that was some serious work. I look at George W as a pretty homely coin with super high mintage. The error coin can be consider a relatively inexpensive coin if you were not fortunate enough to live in an area where they were available from bank rolls. I ask myself this question (after the 3rd cup of coffee i tend to start talking to myself) will the George coin collection be complete without one of these error coins? So i bought a few. Heck I paid more for a bicycle that i seldom ride than I did for my Georges.
johnboy, At the rate the vaults are filling up with GW dollars, I would not expect to see 200 million (or even 50 million) of each president. The mint has failed in their attempt to circulate the small dollar once again, and the Fed has no reason to order hundreds of millions of each design other than to appease collectors. If anything, I think that by the 6th or 7th coin, they will be collector items only. Good luck on your investment - as an interesting note, a person on another forum did a similar thing as you. He bought hundreds of smoothies ( I believe he said his cost-average was $100 per coin), sent them to NGC for grading, and sold the 65's and 66's for $2000 +. For your sake, I hope it'll work again.
Just for reference, the mintage of the 1955 Doubled Die Licoln Cent was about 40,000, of which 24,000 entered into circulation. Just a figure for reference.....you can interpret this information in a number of ways.
Not to be a downer, but I still think the missing edge imprint was a deliberate thing that someone or someones at the mint did. that high of a population and the uprising about it just seemed fishy to me
A few things jump out right there---Coins are NOT a good investment...and really not for a novice. If you are going to invest" in coins then I would suggest that you really start hitting the books ALOT before you even buy any coins. This isn't going to be a good rich deal....think about it---I would be willing to bet that EVERY president dollar that will be minted will be found with a blank edge....and therefor you will have the "new" ones going up...and when the next ones come out the old ones will go down. I did buy one of these for resale...at a coin show I'm setting up at....I paid $75. I agree that it was a deal and I'm thankful for the dealer (member here on CT) for helping a "young" dealer get started hopefuly. Just one bit of advice....don't get your hopes up...and don't get a loan on your house out to buy more. Speedy
Based on the number of strikethrough grease errors on these plain edge dollars, I'm willing to bet that these plain edge dollars were meant for destruction following a mishap at the stamping process and accidentally got added to a bulk bag and shipped out for rolling, ultimately skipping the edge inscription step. Someone probably just labeled the bins wrong. It might even be sad to find out if the labels on two bins were swapped and the wrong ones were sent out for destruction.
Johnboy65, I have a great deal on a bridge in Brooklyn. And some real estate in Florida. Let me know if your interested! -Trip
