Is the market about to heat up?

I was reading an article from one of the various companies that send me articles and they talked about how the market is sluggish right now but is going to pick up at the end of this year and going into 2016.

What are your thoughts on this?

I think the market is soft because there's more baby boomers selling off their US collection and not enough people to buy them in the downward economy. Not exactly sure what's going to change within the near future to make the articles predictions come true.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

As long as the dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket, collectibles (and clearly, coins) should keep moving up. But after a few whiffs of inflation, or a Greek catastrophe, all bets are off. A big Greek problem might temporarily undermine support for ancient coins, as folks desperate for cash sell off coins for whatever they can get. In that case, I would only buy at European auction, after the smoke clears, not directly from Greece, which could collapse into anarchy, 10% chance in my opinion, sufficient to warrant considerable caution.

 

My guess is that the market will go back up once people feel comfortable enough to spend.

The problem with the recession is that it taught people that their little world won't fall apart if they suddenly can't keep buying stuff all the time.

That's a problem for any business, coins or otherwise.

 

Here's some stats and a chart of household debt over the past decade. Nobody has learned a darn thing.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/credit-card-data/average-credit-card-debt-household/

More useful stats:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/regional/householdcredit.html

 

"The average household owes $7,327 on their cards; looking only at indebted households, the average outstanding balance rises to $15,706"

Well, I guess I was just speaking for myself in my previous post (!)

 

Glad I have great credit and pay my cards off each month . But student loans are just terrible as the kids know they need an education to succeed , but getting any advanced degree is super expensive . I feel for the kids . But what I don't understand are adults who live beyond their means buying the latest of everything only to be in dept . Credit card companies make it pretty easy for these people too , with their no interest payments till 2017 . It makes some people think they're getting free money . But just wait till that bill comes due , no sympathy there unless they're charging food . What happened to the baby boomers thrift that they learned from their Depression era parents ? Seems like the next generations didn't pick up on it . JMHO .

 

The Fed shamelessly encourages people to go deeper and deeper into debt, and they will do ANYTHING to keep interest rates near zero...

Why? Two basic reasons:
1. Even a tiny bump-up in interest rates costs the U.S. Treasury millions if not billions as they issue new securities;
2. The quadrillion-dollar derivatives market (global) has less than 15% coverage in hard assets. Interest rates rise, their value as collateral plummets, since they are so highly leveraged, and overnight, panic sets in, and bankruptcies (after mark-to-market) begin.

For convenience, TEOTWAWKI. That's not an Indian chief, it's "The End of the World as We Know It..." Google it. Pay attention, youngsters.

 

I really agree with one thing you said and never really gave much thought to before. The baby boomers and the current market. I think in 20 years we will look back and think "wow, that was one of the last good opportunities to find ANYTHING"

 

no.

the top range of art and coins and real estate are going to be fine the hyper rich are buying as a store of value this wont change anytime soon. New records will be seen for some if most recent elite auctions are any indicator.

Most collectibles though will continue a softer market I think. Coins are a pursuit of those with discretionary income and the main producers the middle class are against the wall and it is not getting better. The main issues are stagnate and falling wages , increased education and medical cost and housing cost. The real estate market is on an up yes but many are feeling the pinch with higher rent and mortgage payments and lower or falling wages.

The issue of household credit card debt mentioned above is an added component.
The real economy is very poor. Many new jobs are part time jobs that do not allow investment , debt repayment , and disposable income for hobbies at least for many.

I am a long term optimist but we are seeing a series of delusional policies by both sides in Washington.

The other significant aspect is there are less coin collectors among the generation x and millennial group. I am among the x group but am on the older part of that.

no one knows for sure it can be interesting to speculate though.

 

I hope not; I'm just barely getting back into the swing of collecting. I need prices low!

 

I think it depends on the market to which you're referring. Within the "coin market" exists several sub-markets. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the higher end market (read: ultra rare coins) will probably continue to trend upwards. I say unfortunately because most buyers can't afford those coins. The commodity type pieces will probably stay mired in the doldrums for 2016. With that being said, it could be a great time to put some pieces away!

 

This thread is slowly easing somewhat to the political side, and as often happens, some very opinionated "political" members draw in the unexpected ( similar to credit card debt) and bad things happens to both. Resist the temptation

 

Anyone here follow derivatives? Next big fiasco to crush this economy. I can afford to splurge a bit on coins even though I'm on S.S. No debt except mortgage and a 854 FICO score. And did anyone read Pat Heller's (Numismatic News) article on the European bank closings on May 6th. Seems these derivatives were on the verge of collapse. They closed the banks for quite awhile and pumped billions of dollars into the economy to prevent that collapse. Wether or not, our available funds for our hobby depends on a lot of things.

 

I haven't noticed anything. If you are talking about around the holidays, they always sell for higher. Especially right after because most relatives have no idea what they are looking for so will buy someone an Ebay gift certificate.

 

Good I'm in the market for some Classic gold , especially Type 1 Double eagles .

 

Well one nice thing about coin collecting is that you always have a coin available to toss.
Head it heats up
tails it cools
lands on rim, no change at all.
Speculate on the coin market? ROFLOL

 

Most likely scarcer coins will still continue to see their prices rising. For common valued coin, not too much.

That said, it really depends on the global economy. Recession is never a good thing for the general public and if it happens too often, people have less reasons to spend money on non-essential goods, numismatics being one of them.

 

I believe, as has been said before, the high end coins will continue to climb, and average coins will fall. If there are less collectors out there, those fewer collectors will want the best, and there are less collectors buying the less-than-best stuff, which will make their prices fall.