Does anybody do any kind of number crunching on coin prices to come up with valuations or know any resources on such topics? Basically what i'm trying to do here is become Warren Buffett of coins. I started an excel spreadsheet for classic commemoratives with cells for year, type, mintmark, denomination, distribtuion, etc based off blue book pricing for 2015, and I stopped, wondering if someone already did it...
Like stocks, coins trend up and down, it just takes longer to do so. The best way to study the market is by using competed auction realized prices. Other than that, the years of the grey sheet would be invaluable for trend data.
I never did it. It seems like a waste of time. If you just learn how to grade, so you know what you've got, then look at the auctions, find the real-time comparables, make your adjustments, up or down, as the case may be, why do you need to consult a "price guide?" Just be cautious, sometimes the auctions are rigged, or, for whatever reason, they're unrepresentative. Just find a few, you'll get an idea what you can get away with, then ask it. It's easy, once you get the hang of it.
You mean kind of like this ? What you see there in the Price Guide section is just a sampling of the many price guides that are available. But if you'll look at the actual realized auction prices at the top of that screen shot, and compare those numbers to the various price guide numbers seen below them, you'll see that price guides are almost always too high. With one exception, the Heritage Value Index. The Heritage Value Index is just a fancy name for the price range that a given coin actually sells for. You see no coin has a set, given value. That is because no 2 coins, even of the same grade are equal, every coin is unique. Every coin has its own unique attributes or lack of attributes. So not only is it common for one coin of a given grade to be nicer than another of the same grade, it is expected for it to be so. You say you want to become the Warren Buffet of coins - well, good luck with that. I say that because there are already a whole lot of people who have access to all of this information, and a whole lot more. But more importantly they also have a good deal of experience with using it, often decades of experience with using it, to their advantage. But if you use it, at least that is a step in the right direction
A much more productive use of your time -- send letters to 25 attorneys at random, stating that you will make sealed bids on coins in estates, or, for lots you're not interested in, you'll give free informal advice on how the attorney can move them. Indicate how much capital you can raise, perhaps with a partner. Always "bid" for the entire lot, not just a few choice items. A law directory will discuss whether an attorney is primarily a probate, divorce, or corporate attorney, etc. Only send to probate and/or family attorneys, others are a waste of time and postage. Keep track of whom you contact; remind them every six months, follow-ups by postcard, not letter. For the small investment, sometimes this pays off BIG. You can't go wrong knowing a lot of attorneys.
You might also want to look at the following: “Pricing Relationships of United States Type Coinage”, The American Journal of Numismatics Second Series, 23, 257 – 263 (2011) “The Sheldon Scale and Price-Grade Relationships in Large Cent Type Coinage”, Penny-Wise (publication of Early American Coppers), XLVI, 5 – 15 (2012) “The Sheldon Scale and Price-Grade Relationships in Half Cent Type Coinage”, Penny-Wise (publication of Early American Coppers), XLVI, 31 – 39 (2013)
As the dollar fluctuates up and down against other currencies, and the price of gold becomes ever more unpredictable and unstable, this whole pricing mechanism turns into baloney. Volatility makes all this analysis pointless and irrelevant. What was true 5 years ago is laughable now.
NGC's site is free and the research you can do there is really in-depth. Sadly, coins and stocks are 2 totally different animals and don't compare. With that being said, I make a hobby out of tracking prices and looking at trends because I think it's interesting. So check out NGC's site and have fun with all the data, charts and comparisons you can do. Maybe you'll be the genius who applies the Fibonacci sequence to coin charting to come up with perfect predictions.
Believing in NGC would be OK if you could use the results to generate a level playing field, so to speak. But you can't. I did not say anything at all about stocks; stocks are Yellen's primary cornerstone in convincing the middle class that they are well-off and recovering, but the whole thing could blow up overnight. Her whole point of keeping interest rates at historic lows is to make saving, per se, unattractive so that yield-chasing capital can serve as fuel for stocks, real estate, and general consumption.
How can you do analysis if you don't know whether price changes are caused by changes in supply/demand or changes in hookah pipe useage, aka gradeflation.
Here's another thing I have not understood. A lot of the auctions have an automatic 18% fee--which to me seems kind of self defeating if you're trying to buy a coin a reasonable value. And that's after a coin has been graded--so to me it's a double whammy. I agree with those who say--learn how to grade yourself. There's deals out there--not often--but they are out there--if you know what you're looking for.
The 18%? Just greed. So the auction houses can crow about their low commission rates for consignors. But of course, the vast majority of bidders simply whack their bids by 18%, to the seller's detriment.
Every coin you've ever bought, anywhere, has had a "fee" added onto its price. The only difference is the people selling you those coins didn't tell you there was an "added fee" - and the auction venues do tell you there was an added fee. In other words if you don't know something, then you can't object to it. But if you do know something then you can object to it. As they say - ignorance is bliss
How do I get access to this site? This is why I set .99 no reserve, during peak hours and let the market set the price. From my experience, eBayers are not stupid. Some coins I will make a bit extra, some I will make a bit less. Net-Net, I will be whole.
