I was going through some old files and found notes on the costs of Roman imperial coins offered by one of my favorite dealers (Empire Coins, no longer in the coin business) in 1995 and earlier. In those days dealers sent out illustrated "fixed-price lists." Remember, this was pre-internet. By taking notes on each ruler, the condition of each coin, and the asking price I was able to build an up-to-date list of coin values. I looked at it tonight and thought it was interesting enough to report to you. The listing was by ruler and included every third and fourth century person and a few earlier. I still have the lists and can see how the grades in my notes compare to what I think now about grades. My conclusion is that almost every ruler (and spouse) could be bought as cheaply now in 2015 as twenty years ago in 1995 or earlier (in nominal dollars, not counting inflation), and some are distinctly cheaper now (Vetranio, Procopius, Julian II, Jovian, many inexpensive late Roman AE types in high grade). My interpretation is that the cost of printing photographs, composing and printing paper catalogs, and mailing them was rather high and forced dealers to mark coins up more than than now, and the ability of amateurs to market coins in competition with professionals was nil (eBay did not exist). Dedicated collectors had to deal with an apparent scarcity of supply. However, now collectors have the ability to see the the stock of hundreds of dealers. Some scarcity remains. Not every type you want is available all the time. But the scarcity is nothing like it was before 1995 when collectors saw only the coins in a few paper catalogs per month. So, I don't think you new collectors have to regret that you missed a golden age of cheaper coins. Not so. Coins are cheaper now in real terms than they were in the 1990s, and I think that is true for earlier decades as well.
Excellent reporting Warren. I suspected as much, but had no way to prove it since I did not keep my sales catalogs from back then and my own bookkeeping was more than lax. I find, however, that at any given moment in time, the prices of coins can and do fluctuate in both directions. There are times I lament that the prices have gone sky high only to be proven wrong when I find something I looking for at a bargain price. As I always tell new collectors and I have to remind myself, patience is the key. Not just for us bargain hunters, but collectors with deep pockets as well.
pretty much all ancient coins are more expansive now than 10 years ago when I started. Prices dropped 4 or 5 years ago then went back up again. In fact, I think cheapest I've seen was in 2011 or 2012. A 5/4 common tiberius denar in 2005 cost 200-300USD, now try to get one for under 500...
I agree wth all the posts!! I noticed that coins I purchased decades ago were about or less than the same coins in today's dollars and as 'VAL' mentioned, some are considerably cheaper... Bing is also correct---in my view--- patience is the key and an awareness that 'trends' occasionally sprout up and affect availability and pricing. An 'Any Given Sunday' kind of thing also applies (auctions and bidding wars). Terrific observations VAL!!
The difference I see is today there are many more so called dealers trying to convince beginners that their low quality coins are just the way things that old are. Before you could set up as a dealer for next to nothing (eBay or vCoins) you faced the expense of making a list and mailing it out. Now it is easy to put some stuff on the web and dazzle people with your programming rather than your coins. Before digital photography, it was hard to find a photographed lot of a low price coin because the cost of film and printing was more than the coin was worth. As a result, illustrated lists had more coins of Pescennius Niger than of Septimius Severus. I also believe that we are much higher priced now for high grade examples of common coins. There has been a recent (since slabs) upturn in coins that could be found in bulk in EF grade. In 1998, I said (on my book review page) I considered auction catalogs, without doubt, the most valuable part of my numismatic library. Today you can have the kind that you hold in your hand (more fun) or the ones online (easier to search) but I still believe in looking at such catalogs. I used to look forward to the mail every day in the hope that I'd get another printed catalog (with or without illustrations). Now I walk to the mail box mostly for exercise.
Related to what Doug said, recently I purchased numerous old Numismatic Fine Arts auction catalogs and other pre-internet catalogs. The types and quality of the offerings was eye-opening! It definitely made me look at currently offered coins in a different light. For instance, there are some coins I had been resigned to buying in somewhat low grade, thinking they just didn't exist in higher grades. Wrong! They are out there. However, if such examples come to market I may not be able to afford them.
Here's a theory: Ebay made the lower-end coins much more available, and so cheaper. The abundance of cheap coins makes entry into the hobby easier. The supply of low-end coins still outstrips the expanded base of consumers by quite a bit, but now you've got a bunch more people in the hobby in general. When some of those otherwise-wouldn't-be-in-the-hobby-low-end hobbyists decide to move up to intermediate and advanced coins, which don't have near the supply of those LRBs, you've got more demand on a limited supply and higher prices, so ebay means lower prices for cheap coins and higher prices for nicer coins. Maybe it's been said before, or maybe I'm wrong. I've only been into ancients for about a year, but this occurred to me while reading the thread.
I wrote that high grade of examples of common coins are cheaper now than they were on fixed-price lists in 1995. The context differs in Doug's statement, so they are not in conflict. The very highest condition common coins may be more expensive now, but Doug's reference to "bulk" was relevant. At coin shows (more popular then than now) I saw dealers with groups (hoards) of 100 or 500 similar common high-grade coins and if you wanted one excellent one it was very much cheaper than buying a comparable coin from a fixed-price list. It is a lot cheaper to sell a coin without needing to write it up and if you have a hundred to get rid of the price will be low. However, many collectors did not and do not go to shows and when those common coins were on fixed-price lists they cost far more than at shows and more than they now cost on the web. So, at shows in 1995 high-grade common coins were cheaper than now, but on lists they were more expensive. That was a motivation for going to shows in the old days. Also, transporting coins was easier and shows in the 1980s and 1990s had dealers with large bags of coins to search through. Nowadays, you don't see so many coins in bulk at shows.
Some American dealers has sky high prices in Vcoins and other Europe dealers has low prices in Vcoins. in Europe cost a Roman coin a lot lower!!
No, ebay definitely made things cheaper, across the board. because ebay sellers have much lower overheads. Even counting everything (paypal and such) 18% is much lower than owming a brick and mortar store, or auction house related fee and costs in this case, and part of that margin ultimately gets passed down to end consumers. So with the growing of e-commerce the general trend should be that coins are all getting cheaper. Obviously that wasn't the case in reality. Partly because what Doug and hoth had said, but partly also because demand grew as well. That demand grows in all sectors but high-end is always the one that maintains its growth. In time, prices should go up. In fact we might have already passed the base, which I think was couple years ago.
quick clarifications. The price drop from population of e-commerce was more immediate than the long term hike due to growth in demand. In other words, this demand induced inflation should be slow, and does not correspond to the outrageously high prices we see in fixed price sales. For a period of time after e-sales had become available, prices dropped, since supply grew faster than demand, pool was getting larger. I'm not sure if the equilibrium had been passed because this demand pool is too difficult to predict. It has to do with many other factors and not just the growing availability of e-commerce and internet. Population growth, growth in wealth, and even age make up of population and things that affect interests in the societies.
In Europe we do have the feeling that all you have to do is kick a clod of earth and some ancient coin will appear . There have been been many detector finds of hoards and single items that have changed the market in the last 20 years. There is a small but significant probability that in the acre or so of my back garden, some old coin lies undiscovered. If I suspected an aureus, I 'd be scanning every inch, for routine bronze, not worth the trouble. I will tell you a strange thing about ancient coins in Europe. I was in a Roman temple in Istria, admiring the portraits in stone of whoever modeled for the sacred portraits two millenia ago. A few hours later I was on a bus looking at that very woman, or her descendant, from 2000 years ago. It made me think, just how close parts of Europe are in many respects to the times of the coins you talk about. That past is all around us.
AN was kind enough to send me a catalog from a berk/england public auction of byzantine coin that took place in 1989. someone who attended made notes about the actual prices some of the pieces went for, and wrote down the two coins he scored (nice ones dude from '89!). anyway, the prices are usually quite a bit higher than i'd expect to see them going for at auction today. interesting to note that the realized prices compared to the estimates where seem about as accurate as today.
Because Europeans are literally standing on top of ancient coins! I do wonder: is it the other way around with European sellers of US coins? (My guess is that it is)
For international catalogs, it's worth noting how much currency exchange rates have changed. In many cases, collectors would have done better to just keep their local currencies than their coins! Fluctuations mid-year are significant as well, even more so with our global volatility recently. In the last twelve months, the difference between the lowest and highest exchange rate of Swiss Franc to US dollar is 42%. With coins bought and sold across an international market, the exchange rates have a substantial influence on prices.
