I was agreeing with you. If my children are well off and don't care. They will just help finance my retirement. My coin collecting is sort of a retirement for me. Might buy me a piece of land in the south one day.
As Kurt said, the price of gold is controlled neither by coin collectors nor by hoarders preparing for an impending economic apocalypse. Gold is a commodity, and ultimately commodity traders set the price. Commodity prices rise and fall in correlation with supply and demand. (Other factors can affect prices, but no need to go into that for this discussion.) With the global economy rather stagnant right now, demand for industrial commodities is soft across the board — look what's happened to the price of oil. Speaking of oil, there's an interesting correlation between it and gold — historically the two have tended to trade in the same direction, which is why gold bugs keep a close eye on what's happening with oil.
I'm really reluctant to say this, but I've said it a hundred times so what the heck, history has proven that 95% or more of coin collectors, lose money on their collections. So before you think about the question that started this thread, think about that
This is my philosophy, more or less. So many people throw away money on ephemeral things like cigarettes, fancy dinners, expensive clothes, gambling, etc. Those things (some of which I do, too, at times) bring pleasure, but only for a short time. Putting that money into something like coins, even if they don't gain value, will bring pleasure for a long time, and still have value decades later. It's also a type of financial insurance plan. If I had to sell some coins due to an emergency, I can do that. I can't very well sell a $200 bottle of champagne that I drank last year.
Nobody is advocating that anybody stop coin collecting. It is an admirable and much loved hobby. I think all anybody is trying to say is that if you think you will make money on your coin collection, stop and think again because 95 out of a 100, or more, people do not. So like any hobby, or anything that you do, there is going to be a price for it. Just recognize that and keep on collecting
But even this has costs - opportunity costs. Deferred gratification can become miserliness when taken to extremes. I believe living well is the best revenge. After you suffer a near brush with death, consider your choices again, and recalibrate. Self-denial is way overrated.
... A 73 year old man decides to change to a new doctor. After two visits and exhaustive blood and urine tests, the doctor said he was doing “fairly well” for his age. A little concerned about that comment, he couldn't resist asking the doctor, “Do you think I'll live to be 90?” The doctor asked, “Do you smoke tobacco, or drink beer, wine or hard liquor?” “Oh no,” he replied. “I'm not doing drugs, either!” Then the doctor asked, “Do you eat rib-eye steaks and barbecued ribs?” He said, “Not much. My former doctor said that all red meat is very unhealthy!” “Do you spend a lot of time in the sun, like playing golf, boating, sailing, hiking, or bicycling?” “No, I don't,” he said. The doctor asked, 'Do you gamble, drive fast cars, chase women, have a lot of sex?” “No,” he said... The doctor looked at him and said, “Then why the hell do you want to live to 90?”
I've usually heard this stated as "you make your money when you buy the coin, not when you sell it." Bargain-hunting is a legitimate way to approach the hobby -- it seems to be the main thing I do -- but to get bargains, you have to be at least one of: Greedy and/or dishonest (traveling cash-for-gold shows, "Sorry to hear about your mother, I'll give you a HUNDRED DOLLARS for those couple of dozen tarnished old silver dollars you found in her dresser. It's more than you'll get at a coin shop.") Lucky ("Half-dollar rolls? The little old lady in front of you just cashed in a whole bag of them. Are you interested in the old, big dollar coins, too? She cashed a bunch of those, although some of them look like they're turning colors...") Observant and knowledgeable ("Yawn, another set of probably-cleaned 'shiny' Mercury dimes on eBay. Hang on, that 1942-D date looks like...") I've had my share of luck, wasted more than my share of time lurking on eBay to pounce on buy-it-now bargains -- and I've made my share of mistakes, where I thought I was getting a bargain, but the seller probably knew better. But it's all entertainment, and my livelihood isn't dependent on hitting numbers on a balance sheet.
Being knowledgeable and observant works well for making money on a coin now and then. And I strongly advocate doing that. But assembling a collection and then selling it a later time is a lot different than that. For collectors to make money there's a bit more to it than that Jeff. Simply put, you have to 1 - buy the right coin, 2 - at the right time, 3 - at the right price. And then 4 - sell it at the right time, and 5 - at the right price. Get any 1, just 1, of those 5 things wrong, and it is almost a certainty that you will lose money on the deal.
Personal opinion, I think in the long run the number of collectors for those limited editions will be more limited than the editions. Well that is my situation. I have no children (thank goodness) and the only other person in my family with an interest in coins is my 86 year old father. (Barring accidents I should outlast him by a good margin.) So what happens to my collection after I die? I really don't care. I won't need the money, I'll be dead. My heirs for the most part are making enough to get by so they aren't dependent on the inheritance. They may sell it for a fraction of what it is worth, or they may get a reasonable price. Whatever they get it will be more than they had, and they won't know if they could have gotten more so that won't matter either. To them it is "found money". How much effort they put into it will determine how much the "find". Or they may just box it up an store it away. (We are a family of pack rats)
They would be happy even if you put the coins in sealed mason jars and made them a treasure map to follow. You would live forever in family history
I think you'll need a lot more then $5500 to form any sort of meaningful conclusion. I'm not sure what coins I would choose to use in an experiment such as this, but if the sum total is that small, it won't have enough market strength to probably even move in the time period allowed. Even a single coin at that value would be a worthless case. Now, if you could buy say 20 coins that all averaged in the 10-20K range individually, then you might have enough invested to make a worth-while experiment.
Probably don't even need to buy anything to validate the investment concept. Just look at coin trends over the years and see how specific coins, coin types or individual rarities have done over the last 10-20 years and you can make a fair assessment of anticipated growth or decline. Much like mutual funds, even though past performance is no indication.....
I am also late to the party but I like the idea and would personally invest in *3* different type of coins: 1) pre-1933 US gold, MS65 2) old US silver half dollar, either draped bust or other series, AU grade (depends on series/date) 3) a scarce 'old European' coin, Germany/England/France you name it If possible, the U.S. Coins should be CAC certified and #3 should be graded of course After 5/10/20yrs look at their value and I doubt you'll ever regret the purchase...
Let me ask a general question about that. Is an assembled collection worth more AS a collection or as individual coins?
If you need an adopted 'heir', look no further than me! I'll even do good son things for you and be nice and everything! Shoot It'll be like my current thoughts on parenting, they are cute and all, and I enjoy being around them, but its also nice to pass them back onto their parents when they get cumbersome and become a handful. Ill do the same, stay out of your hair until you want me. Lol
On the investment side of things, I would maybe consider putting money into chicken and pork farms or that side of the meat industry. With the current water crisis, there was a recent study on how both of those protein options were considerably more efficient than beef when investigating water consumption. Something to think about.