Coin world is now estimating that there are no more than 170,000 of these Washington smoothies out there. Well over 100 million Americans are expected to collect these Presidential dollars so that means only 1 in 600 or 700 could actually own one of these if each person was allocated one smooth edge. That is a pretty hefty supply and demand imbalance. Coin values are based on rarity, popularity, quality, and appearance. Lets start with the rairty variable, what have other coins done with mintages in the 170,000 range done? 30,000 1995-W Silver Eagles were minted and they sell around $5000 each, 52,000 1916 Standing Liberty Quarters were minted and they sell for around $1500 in the worst of conditions, 1909-S VDB's sell for $500 or more in the worst of conditions and there were 484,000 of those minted, 1893-S Morgan Dollars sell for around $2500 in the worst of conditions and there were 100,000 of those minted, so as you can see based on these numbers you would expect these to be selling for much more. Ok, now to the popularity variable, well over 100 million americans are expected to collect presidential dollars, no need to say anymore because that says it all. Next the quality factor, most of these coins will undoubtedly be uncirculated since most people were eating these up to collect in the first place and not to running off to the store to spend them. FInally, the appearance factor, well I'm hearing from other forums that many are impressed with the proof like finish that many of these washington dollars seem to display along with the illusion of this looking like a pure gold piece, I think this says it all from an appearance perspective. These coins will bounce around just like the Wisconsin leafs did which were selling as low as $60 or $70 on ebay about a year ago in unc condition and now they are selling for around $200.. 170,000 is a very small number in the coin world especially when you have many collectors that will put away multiples of these. I expect in 2 months that you will not find a 65 selling for under $600 or $700 on ebay. Folks, this is common sense and this could very well be the only presidential coin with no date, no mint mark, no in god we trust and the other wording. In other words, it is almost like the mint produced a Presidential coin in itself to start the which cointains no date and the other pertinent information. What would you expect a coin to go for tomorrow if the mint said they are producing only 170,000 of a new presidential coin and the bidding will take place in a dutch style auction format with 170,000 being minted?? I would expect close to $1000 or more would be final price. These coins are very undervalued and once the initial dumping is over with from people not caring what they get for them since thieir basis was ony a $1 you can alomst bet that these will sky rocket in price as promoters come in along with people wanting to stach 10 or 20 away for the long term.
Welcome to the forum!!!! If these "smooth edge" Washington dollars sell for hundreds of dollars now, imagine what unopened rolls of the Washington dollars will sell for in the future just for a chance of finding one. I only have 2 rolls of these that I will never open but will hold onto for years, then, if the price is right I will sell them. We'll see what happens.
Sorry, I don't agree with that at all, they were caught too early by collectors. Nobody realized the 'Cheerio's dollar' was anything special when released, some were spent, some were saved, some probably tossed in the trash with the empty cereal box. None were held on to specifically because someone noticed the 'variety' of it, that didn't happen for quite some time, and thus NOW, they are worth SOMETHING, a smooth-edged Washington dollar will always be available, demand will drop, but supplies will be high, and they will be worth $1. But I could be wayyyy off....
Uh, let me put it this way. When you can show me an average high school kid who has the talent to make an 1893-S Morgan Silver Dollar or a 1995-W Silver Eagle in machine shop in like a whole five minutes, I might be inclined to agree with you...
Welcome to the forum! Hope you enjoy it here. I would go yes and no here. They might go up, but I don't think so. Like said earlier, it all depends on supply and demand. I think the mitage honestly, is going to get higher, if it already isn't. I personally would own one, but I am not paying $50 for it, when there are other coins I want and need. So it all depends. But, to each his own I would say. Thanks for posting your thoughts though, and hope you stick around. What kind of coins do you collect? Phoenix
Shamfully I was watching the csn tonight on Directv and they had the smooth edge 1 dollar coin, graded in a slab for $399 . This seems a little wrong to me...
I don't think one could say that actual mintages are the same thing as, "Coin world is now estimating that there are no more than 170,000 of these Washington smoothies out there." The time to sell these (if you had one) was when the news ran stories on them. Now they are back down to $50-$75. In regards to, "Well over 100 million Americans are expected to collect these Presidential dollars..." I'm reminded that 92% of all statistics are made up. Even if that figure was in any way accurate, it's not an error collector figure (for example, I might collect the dollars, but I have no interest in the errors). Plus I'm willing to bet that other people around the world will collect these, so I guess one could say the potential number of collectors is the world population. Either way... enjoy these if you have them, but forgive me if I don't "Get Them While You Can"
I have 1 P & D Roll Set from the U.S. Mint, which I plan to keep and not open. The scary thing to me about the no-edge-lettering ones is that I keep hearing about scam artists filing them down. So, unless I ever come across one myself in change or in a roll I buy, then count me out for now at the prices being asked. I might be wrong in my thinking, but it wouldn't be the first time, or likely not the last.
I just checked the prices for raw coins and they sure have dropped to under $70 from a couple of hundred a few weeks ago. The ease with which they can make a countefeit seems to be hurting the prices and probably will for a long time. And I would expect to hear about this smooth error now with every new president coin released, "Look I found the first smooth error!!! Grind Grind Grind..." Here is a picture of one I just saw on Ebay. Looks suspicious, eh?
As soon as I saw how easy it is to fake these coins I vowed never to buy one. I have a couple unopened rolls, and that will be the end of my collection on these coins.
I bought 8 so far on ebay and I have paid about $80 on average. I see this as a coin that will be in the same league as other great errors such as the 37 3 legged buffalo and the 55 double die. The problem with the Wisconsin leafs was that most thought it was a die error and not some deliberate act and furthermore the mint concluded it was a die error, whereas with this Washington dollar the mint confirmed it totally missed the stamping process and to me it is like what the person initially said regarding this coin is that it is like the mint made one presidenial coin with a mintage of around 150,000.. I'll gladly pay $80 all day for a coin as popular as the presidential series with a mintage this low.
As for conterfiets NGC has published an article on how to detect conterfiets and they have procedures in place such as weighing the coins and measuring the diameter, so without question the market for these coins down the road will mainly be for graded coins.
It was the Mint's official position that it was a die error, but there is a significant number of people that believe it was a deliberate act by someone. Random die scratches or chips would not look exactly like a leaf... it seems likely to me the Mint stuck to their official story because they weren't able to find out who altered the die. Would have to disagree that "most thought it was a die error." I'm not sure how classic this error will be, only time will tell. However it doesn't seem as dramatic as the 3 legged buffalo or the 55 DD, nor does it seem especially rare as far as errors usually go; add to that the fact it is pretty easily faked and I don't think this will generate nearly as much excitement. After they hype is over and the dust settles I imagine the price will likely go down... it doesn't matter how rare an error is if not enough people who collect errors care much. Most of the hype is coming from people who aren't even collectors and seems to be more of the "wow, I found something that is worth a lot" rather than "wow, what an interesting and rare error." There's only so long that kind of hype can keep the price up. I could be wrong, but I don't think this will go down as a famous or classic error. It's just too common. Might be worth getting one by searching unopened rolls, but I think its current price will drop if anything once the hype dies down.
I personally think that it will be a coin more like a 1995 Double Die that will always bring a premium, but probably under $100, unless they grade exceptionally high. A mintage of 170,000 is actually a lot for a variety. It really will just come down to how many people choose to collect this error and what the upward price pressure will be. There is certainly a shakedown in the market for them right now, as counterfeits are abundant.
