Modern Sleepers & Flippers

Really high grade Business Strike coins from the years the mint sets were satin finish. I'm thinking long term.

 

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I understand what you're saying, but aren't these already very high priced? So, you believe they'll go even high or are there some that are sleepers?

 

I'm thinking they will keep going up.

 

Hmm

The ol fart nailed it.

 

I think you have to believe the ONLY thing supporting current price levels are the flippers. Look at the 1971 Brown Box Ikes - we were all going to get rich over that limited run. Selling 40+ years on below issue price...

 

Yeah, but for awhile weren't they selling for mad money? Gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.......

 

I'd say the flippers are keeping the prices down by flooding the market with the latest issues. Once the flippers are done and these limited editions are absorbed into collections, then there's the possibilty prices will rise, depending on demand. If prices are high while flippers are flipping, it's because demand is high.

Based on today's low mintages, brown box Ikes are high mintage, I don't remember thinking I was going to make a killing on brown box Ikes. Yes, there was a lot of speculation on the 73 issue and I always thought it was over priced. But then, aren't high grade specimens doing well?

 

But where are the 1000s of each Modern issue going if not into the hands of people hoping to hold the a few years and flip for supranormal profits. If too many people are doing that, then the prices will crash.

 

True, the hope is, as usually happens, new collectors will want one, thus increasing demand sometimes down the road, sometimes sooner. Stable prices for an issue usually develop over time. I collect for the long term for my family and hopefully myself, yet sometimes flip a few for quick profits.

 

Look at the gold Kennedy. The flippers killed them buy buying coins they had no interest in keeping. Now the supply is way too high.

 

Of course, the flippers did not care about the long-term (or even short-term) health of the gold JFK. Rather, they cared about the immediate flip and then walked away.

 

Here’s another addition to moderns I like – that would be uncirculated mint sets from 2011 on. We’re seeing record low sales for these sets and the TPG’ers do not recognize the coins are different from business strikes – so, they may be win/win sets. If they continue to be considered the same coins as business strikes, they are the best chance to acquire high grades. If they are someday recognized to contain SMS coins, then we have low mintage unique coins.

Is there a chance they’ll ever be recognized as SMS coins? I think so, as I see a difference, yet some don’t. If you don’t see a difference, let me ask, have you compared the U.S. Mint’s AtB Quarter Uncirculated Coin Set to their AtB Quarter Circulating Coin Set? I see a difference in the quarters in the two sets, as apparently others do, or they would be buying both sets. The U.S. Mint also believes there is a difference or they wouldn’t be selling both sets. The quarters in the AtB Quarter Uncirculated Coin Set are the same quarters in the Uncirculated Mint Set.

 

I believe that just about every modern coin is priced to the market now and will slowly level off at lower prices. We don't have to look too far back to see many examples of this. The gold JFK sold at stupid premiums and are now easily obtained rather cheaply, the gold first spouce coins came out, sold out in minutes, listed on eBay for double or more their issue price and now can be found for about spot price. The 1999 and 2001 stat quarter sliver proofs were overly expensive due to flippers and demand and now can be found for about a quarter of the price as just a few years ago. It's the old beanie baby market all over again for many coins that are supposed quick and long term flippers.

I do see a few exceptions to the rule. The 25th anaversary set, the 2009 high relief and a couple of others seem like they have plenty reason to sqwirl a few away. The 25th anaversary set is part of a very popular series and hada limited mintage and the high relief will likely benefit greatly by new releases.

To me it's pretty clear that our hobby is full of let's say advanced age collectors and their collections could flood the market with all of this material in the next twenty years or so. For prices to continue to rise, the demand must be there which means that we will need more new collectors than we lose over the next couple of decades. Unless a wildly popular circulation series with the muscle of the state quarter series is released, I just can't see this happening.

I'm not trying to discourage anybody here, this is just my view of the market as I see it in the next twenty or so years. I really do wish you all success.

 

Ken didn't say that!

 

Of course there was no long term value to these, and everyone knew it.

Except for the short termers.

There was an unlimited mintage --

And I know a number of folks at the ANA who agreed with me -- and none of us were on line

Vic:

The short termers didn't do it, the unlimited mintage did it.

 

Do you have a website or figure or table or list or something that shows all modern commemoratives mintages?

I cannot find it on-the-line.

 

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_United_States_commemorative_coins

It's not nicely formatted, but the info is all there.

 

That was the first place I checked. Did you check it? Because the mintages for all of the newer ones aren't there. And I don't like it since they refer to mintages as "volume".

So. Does anyone know of a place where one could see ALL of the mintages?

 

You might try this:
http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_min...rogItem&sort=asc&repreport=March 29, 2015&#CM
Direct from the horses mouth, so to speak!

 

Why doesn't this horse speak about the 5 star general mintage? Is this some kind of conspiracy so I cannot verify the mintage? Why is this information not available in one place?