Anyone think a boom is just around the corner (coin and metal prices)..

..anyone else getting the feeling that we are close to a radical upswing?

 

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Gold is already at $662...

I'm no economist, but all the reading I've done leads me to believe that the forces driving gold higher will persist for some time.

 

My prediction for precious metals: up, down, up, down, up, down...you get the drift.
Coins- I don't think there will be an increase. If anything, IMO, the bull market will end altogether and prices will drop.

 

I expect the current boom to continue at least another year but don't expect
much increase in it unless the economy booms as well. As metals go up and
worldwide wealth increases it will continue to be beneficial to the hobby.

 

LOTS of room for an upward swing. The sky is the limit.

 

I think there's a difference between precious metals for investment and coins for collecting.

I can envision a scenario where macroeconomic forces in the United States could cause disposable income to continue to drop off, which would be trouble for a lot of less valuable coins at the margin. Those same forces would probably push precious metals higher.

Oh, and I hope I'm wrong about that scenario... I do have two kids...

 

It is my opinion that precious metals will level off sometime around the middle of July of this year, and will start to fall down some around Christmas. Gold will stay active the rest of the year however silver will drop down around $11.00 to $12.00 and stay there until next year. Precious metals will always be a up and down market so I never have thought it to be a good investment at least that is the way it seems to me.

Bruce.

 

Unfourtunatly, I have to agree with you...

I think you've laid it outthe best so far....

 

This is an excellent post. It would be very possible for precious metals prices to rise in the next year. However, if energy prices continue to rise into the summer and real wage growth does not occur, then people will not have the extra disposable income to spend. Much will come down to inflation and how the Fed moves interest rates in response to it. The market had a broadbased rally today on the news that the Fed may lower interest rates in the near future. This shows how volatile the market is, with large reactions to possible actions and not actual actions.

I personally think that metals will bounce around the next year with silver in the $12-15 range and gold in the $650-$725 range. I think the coin market will continue to be two-tiered, with quality coins bringing stronger and stronger prices due to lack of availability and commons, overgraded coins, and problem coins being significantly discounted.

 

I make it a point to search for the small pockets of opportunity where precious metals as an investment and coins for collecting merge. This is sort of my niche. Sometimes there are long periods of time when this sort of opportunity is hard to find; but when it peridodically comes along I think it's worth buying.

Regarding the boom -- you don't have to wait for it. You are in the middle of it. In my opinion, silver and gold coins will move inverse to the value of the dollar and are not tied directly to the economy.

 

I think everythings relative. I dont think rares can go up and commons go down. Commons have some rarity. if prices doubled: spend one thousand, sell for two thousand. the commons: spend a hundred, sell for two hundred. spend five, get then. spend two, get four. if prices go up, the profit should be there for all coins.

 

Howdy all,

Great stuff and good reading. Thanks.

I see the bull market for gold and silver having started in 2002. With the twin deficits and excess money supply causing the $ to continue to drop relative to 'real stuff', this bull market will continue. Sure, there will be ups and downs, but the trend line is up.

As for coins, to the degree they're tied to bullion prices, they'll continue to climb. For their numismatic portion of value, I think that quality slabbed stuff that folks WANT to collect will continue upward regardless of the macroeconomy. You may see a two-tiered coin market sort of like the way retail is today. The Coach and Neiman-Marcus and other high end stuff is doing very well as the rich simply are not impacted by the economy. These people will still want to buy that PCGS 1909S-VDB in MS 65. It's the middle and low market retail that's starting to really hurt as joe sixpack gets laid off from his mfg job. This side of the coin market will get very tight.

All of this until the Fed starts to cut rates at which point, the stock market will go ballastic and with a lag, this will turn the economy around. But gold and silver will still be in a full blown bull market simply due to the deficits and money supply.

just my humble opinion,

rono

 

This is something I've given a lot of thought to. Where I've come out is that I believe that going forward, it is very possible that common silver coins [e.g., morgans, peace, franklin halves, etc] may outperform the rare coins. For example, if the price of silver triples to about $40, a common date morgan will probably also triple because of the high bullion content relative to price. But a more rare morgan that sells for perhaps $300 is unlikely to triple to $900 just because the silver content appreciated by $25 or so. Anyway, that's the theory I'm using. So the more common coins could very well be the best to buy now if appreciation is important to you.

 

Silver will be in the $16.00 plus range by December 31st. Check this thread out.
http://forums.collectors.com/messag...ight_key=y&keyword1=screaming&keyword2=silver

 

Actually, even thought I have a lot in PMs, I almost hate to see the Price of Silver and Gold go thought the roof...

I buy bullion almost every two weeks depending on SPOT, it would reduce my bi-weekly take and I still have 20 years of Buying....

2nd When the POS and POG go up, I mean jump, not just .50 an ounce alot of the common and lower grade coins will go to the melters reducing the amount avalible for collecters... That is sad as the history is lot, just so someone can earn a few extra bucks...

 

I m not sure how to interpret your response, cloudsweeper. I have a small collection of morgans worth a total of $500. thats a total of Seven coins. Some worth $50 and some worth $100. To argue if they are rare or common is a long philosophical argument. Are you saying a $50 morgan will triple to $150 if the bullion price triples? are you telling me the numismatic premium over the bullion price will double or triple? ...I suspect maybe that is what you're saying. If silver goes to $45 an ounce, it seems ridiculous to think a morgan that is $50 in MS63 would be only $5 over melt value. But I guess in the coin industry, the dealers depend a lot on high volume buisness of common date stuff for their monthly income. Very rare stuff is the whimsy of wealthy people, when coin collecting suits their interest. So if silver gets too expensive, the numismatic value might not increase. Because if the stuff gets too expensive, then dealers wont have as much business. dealers have to keep the common stuff affordable. So we might see in silver coins, what we see in gold coins, whereby the silver coin will start trading more closely to the bullion price. .....which scenario do YOU think will occur? as bill o'reilly says, what say you?

 

I agree. Ghettoization is wonderful isn't it? We don't have any industry left in this country buy we can sure get those wrist watches cheap.

IMO, it's middle coin collectors, who may also see their collections as investments, who are going to get hammered to death. The top won't want the middle and the bottom won't be able to afford it until prices come down. I'm glad I'm already at the bottom.

I think at the moment there is also something else at work. Coin collectors are suffering from the law of diminishing marginal returns.--"Burn-out." This has always existed but with the Internet, the process, I think is speeded up. It's easier and faster to find things.

But we can always use the down time from "burn-out" time to learn share cropping.

It'll be interesting to see what the fed does with interest. The stock market probably would go ballistic if they cut rates. But so would China, Japan and everyone else that's holding our wall paper bonds. The fed is walking on razor blade. And they're not ballerinas.

 

That's a point I've discussed with my dad quite a bit. I think a key question (if you'll pardon the expression) is, how many common silver coins are really left? I remember silver coming out of the woodwork when the Hunts tried to corner the market and it shot to $50 an ounce. Can you imagine people who didn't know what they had gotten from Grandpa, Uncle Joe, Aunt Sarah, et al turning it in for bullion price?

In terms of making money on the upside, though, unless you're really in for a lot and buying at close to the "true" spot prices, you need quite the upside to clear a profit.

For example: I was really proud of Thalia Elizabeth when she saved up enough gift and allowance money to buy herself a gold coin. (It took almost a year!) Between the markup over the gold content and the sales tax (yes, we live in one of "those" states), the price of gold will have to go to something like $1000 an ounce before she could sell it (at a discount to that price) and take any kind of profit on it. Of course, it's not going anywhere anytime soon-- the coin has her favorite monarch on it, naturally!-- but you get the idea. The markup on small denomination bullion coins makes it really tough.

And if gold goes to $1000 an ounce, I shudder to think of why that might be...

Thanks for the kind words on my previous post, all.

 

Yep!!! Yep!!! and more Yep's!!! :smile :smile :smile :smile :smile :smile :smile :smile :smile

Rickieb

 

My prediction is almost all metals will begin to fall in prices soon. I have a strong optimistic outlook on the scientific advancements in the near future. The usage of metals for many things will deminish as other substances take over. Example is the massive usage of fiber obtics and wireless systems. This deminishes the necessity of Copper for wires and Silver or Gold for electrical contacts. More and more dental work is being done with materials that are void of metals. Metals rust, tarnish, corrode, etc. and many of the replacements will not. Coinage will soon enough deminish as electronic monitary systems take over. Already most large monitary transactions are electronic thereby eliminating the necessity of actual moneys being required. With intercountry trading increasing a standard monitary system will eventually be required and it will be electronic. Again, less needs for metals. Elements are being fabricated even now and soon the old Alchemist attempts to make Gold from Lead may be a realization making Gold, Silver, Platinum, etc as common as Aluminum.
Or the prices may just keep going up.