Looking at PCGS's site, I can see that they offer a price guide, as well as data on recent auction prices for a given grade. Does anyone know if PCGS develops and maintains their price guide based on the averages for slabbed, realized auction results (e.g. from HA auctions) per assigned grade? I see that the auction prices are lower than what's shown on the price guide, but that may be due to current/recently lower spot precious metal prices. So maybe the price is not updated as frequently as monthly, but maybe quarterly or annually (?). Thanks in advance.
Like the Red Book, don't rely on any price guide for accurate data. For best results, use auction prices realized. Chris
It's a price guide. Each coin can sell for a different price based on its own merit. PCGS states this guide is only for its own certified coins so it basically is saying if you have a slabbed PCGS coin and the coin is graded ... not details or cleaned, etc., then this is what it is "worth". That being said, sometimes things are gobbled up at their "worth" price and sometimes you can't unload something at 0 X the "worth" price. At least with PCGS, as long as they remain top tier, their pricing guide for their coins won't likely fall in the 0 X "worth" area. But guide means guide. I think the greysheet is more accurate a price model because that is the standard for US coins for dealer buy rates, and you have to know the market to gauge what amount over that it would bring.
So PCGS's true/actual/realized price guide is on their auction results page, as their price guide does not actually use the auction prices, is what I'm hearing.
It's a proprietary price guide, which means that even though the prices might be different that it has the same basis as every other price guide published by any other entity. PCGS weighs various factors in a manner that makes internal sense to them and then comes up with a number.
I cannot say that it still is, but back when I used to track such things, the prices listed in the PCGS price guide was usually the highest price ever paid for a given coin in a given grade.
While I don't place much stock in the prices in PCGS' price guide, I disagree wholeheartedly with you on this one Doug. There are many coins which sell (and sold) for more than the prices PCGS suggested they were worth in various grades, and much more in some cases. Most of those highest prices paid are private treaty sales, and not hammer plus juice at major auctions. It is important for those viewing the price guide to not feel they are necessarily overpaying if they spend more than the prices recently paid for coins bought at auction. Why? Because many of the coins won in those auctions were purchased by dealers for customers, those bidders being "paid eyes". In other cases, they were purchased for inventory, believing they were worth more than others in the room felt they were. Those dealers or buyer's representatives have every right to make a profit, and know in advance that the price to be paid for those coins they actually buy at auction are even higher, sometimes substantially so. We all know that most collectors can ill afford to attend all of the major auctions in pursuit of the coins they want and, even if they could afford to, many feel they are better served spending the money on additional coins, as opposed to spending it on travel to and from auctions. A short-sighted practice for some, but not for all. I definitely think that some coins are properly valued, and some even undervalued in the PCGS Price Guide, in addition to those prices which clearly are excessive. Auction results are probably the best available resource from which to compile prices paid, but to reach the conclusion that they are the ultimate determiner of fair market value is inaccurate . . . that would be true only if all legitimately interested buyers were at the auction together which, most often, is not the case. - Mike
I have not made it a habit to determine how PCGS figures their prices, but a recent example that runs counter to using the highest price would be a half dollar I recently flipped. It was purchased from one dealer and I paid the PCGS price guide value for the grade even though the recorded historical data on the PCGS website showed that the coin routinely sold for double the price guide value. I then walked to another table and sold the coin to another dealer for nearly the value that they sell in auction. It was a quick and easy way to make a few hundred dollars.
The part I don't understand about PCGS price guide is that they basically directly contradict their own PCGS CoinFacts information, with one being listed directly above the other if you are CoinFacts subscriber. (Which I believe Tom you are). So, CoinFacts shows us the five most recent appearances of that coin from NGC and PCGS, or 10 total for most coins. These examples are obviously for auction companies PCGS compiles data from, and not 100% of the picture, but it is a very good starting place. Well, I would say in 75% of the cases I've used CoinFacts (which is on a daily basis now) the "guide" price listed above the auction prices grouping is totally out of whack. Here is a real example of a coin I looked up yesterday, which I may buy. This is NOT a cherry-picked example. http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/4398 I totally agree that "PCGS weighs various factors ...and then comes up with a number", I just don't understand how their guide price number is useful to anyone, including "in a manner that makes internal sense to them" . It is more often than not opposed to the reality of a feature that PCGS themselves sells as a service. PCGS collects a massive amount of data, and could easily make the guide price much closer to actual pricing in the marketplace by more heavily emphasizing actual prices realized, over the other parts of their algorithm which in my experience must have a large dose of fantasy. Their pricing guide could absolutely be the best in the industry if they just used their own data!
If you were PCGS, would you want any of your coins priced lower than NGC? I have no doubt their price guide has nothing to do with accuracy.
also... maybe newb question... never checked it out to verify... but those values where it shows price guide $550 then below auction records... does that include auction fee? in the value there or do you have to look it up to see the total sales value with BF? if you have to add on another 17% to the values above... they are a lot closer to what people actually paid for them and a lot closer to the price guide value... $40-70 difference. In addition... sometimes you get a really good deal at an auction... sometimes you dont.
Mike, Tom - I'm talking about over 10 years ago, not recent history. Which is why I said I don't know if it still is that way. But back then, it was. But yeah Mike I'd agree there may well have been private treaty sales that brought higher prices than any of the auctions I used to track, which was basically all of them.
I can see how lower prices than in NGC's price guides could benefit PCGS. They can be seen as more modest (read: accurate) in their pricing, so they're more reliable and PCGS' price guide can become the go-to authority on coin price guides, too. Everyone else's guides can be seen as relatively inflated, especially if PCGS' price guide is dynamically adjusted more frequently than on an annual basis. Sort of like how they are arguably more strict in grading than NGC, resulting in higher returns for consumers and more submissions. Of course, this is all hypothetical...
