Are coins in a BUBBLE?

I know some 'Boomers' doing this as well.........

 

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I predict that in 20 years we'll see "Revenge of the Millennials." They'll aquire the collections of senile Boomers by trading them paper clips, rubber bands and small pieces of tin foil. And then asking them: "who's stupid now?"

 

Considering you don't even know the difference between the words "then" and "than," I am going to refrain from taking your "sage" advice. Best of luck in the hobby if you truly believe what you keep repeating.

 

seen this today

http://money.cnn.com/video/luxury/2...n-dollars.cnnmoney/index.html?iid=MKT_Taboola

 

I would hope most of their money is being spent on girls and having a good time.

 

http://money.cnn.com/video/luxury/2014/10/01/this-dollar-coin-is-actually-worth-two-million-dollars.cnnmoney/index.html?iid=MKT_Taboola[/QUOTE]

That PCGS $1 Peace 1921 SP64 looks like it was cleaned. It seems unfair how some cleaned coins grade and others don't. Amazing how many ugly coins they photographed.

 

In not too good at my grading but that coin did not look good to me.

Unfair to you because you can only get your cleaned coins into segs holders and not pcgs?

 

Doubt it:



As you can see, in the late 80's it was DEFINITELY a bubble. My best guess here is people who started turning to coins as an investment were disillusioned when they realized the bid/ask spread having bought from dealers. Keep in mind too, this index is based on some of the high-tier coins, not your every-day Buffalos or IHC's you will see most young people collecting.

Also, the ancients don't seem too far off what was printed in Sear, and that was in the 1970's. Most investors go to the stock market. If anything were saturated I'd say THAT market is

 

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You're very unaware of that the SEGS of today is much better than the SEGS of yesterday. Coins that are not obvious looking of being cleaned to the untrained eye are able to be identified by SEGS as cleaned coins. Older SEGS slabbed coins I noticed more cleaned coins were making it into regular graded holders. Today is a very different story. Today SEGS is just as good as any in the top 4. I look at many slabs too and know the quality of coins making it into graded and non-graded slabs. Many coins are graded too high, even by the leaders of the industry. I'm happy SEGS is grading more conservatively as I see a recent piece graded by them actually means something that determines quality. Current grading standards have gotten too liberal. Also I love that SEGS has the old style holders where prongs to see the edge are not used.

 

I'm glad you find SEGS meets your expectations. I have no axe to grind against them, but I do need to ask you about the comment I underlined from your post.

Where are you getting the information to support your claim?

While they might be cleaning up their act, no pun intended, a reputation is easy to lose and much, much harder to re-establish.

 

I've never really looked at my collection as a "real" investment, but having said that, I think it is always a good idea to have a certain amount in hard currency. Unfortunately, most people don't seem to get it and end up buying near or at the top, then spend years waiting for the top to reappear. When silver hit $40, I sold a bunch of Engelhard 10 ounce Silver bars. Most of those I purchased when silver was between 6 and 7 an ounce. Having said that, I still have complete collections of $5.00 maple leaves, Libertads, and American Eagles. The wife has a complete collection of 1/10 ounce Gold Eagles and has collected about 3 pages worth of world cold coins in different karat weights and types (mostly 1/10 to 1/4 ounce).
Where rare coins are concerned, I got burned when we first started collecting by purchasing a "rare" Morgan dollar .... then they went and found a whole bank vault full of them ....grr. But over time, I think the value of our coins has about doubled. I would have done far better in the stock market, but have also lost a lot there during the crash of 2000, and to a lesser degree again in 2008.
Whenever I get the chance, I introduce kids to collecting for very selfish reasons, but even though selfish, I think coin collecting enriches and enables learning.

 

I read the baseball card story and makes me think of a little about my own story. I had a pretty nice collection when I was in college (honestly I think it was easier to buy coins then then now with a family and a couple of kids although I make a lot more I just had more disposable income then, although I do pretty well buying now too) but when I hit my senior year I was buried in a work load that I just found it impossible to keep working full time so I sold the entirety of my collection to do well in school. I probably got %60 of the value I paid for them so I did much better than baseball cards although I miss those coins some days.

 

There have been several bubbles, one near the late 1970's.
Then in the late 1980s'

And about two years ago.
Look at the values 4 years ago for:
1909 S VBD
1932 D & S quarters
and various other key dates.

Compare them to today's values.

 

So what you're saying is now is a good time to buy?

 

yes.

Especially key dates.

Also, Bust $1/2's are not down, they are still hot.

 

I woudn't look too hard at individual coins.

It's a collector's market and that stuff goes way up and down.

 

I am getting this information by looking at older SEGS slabs as compared to new ones. The newer ones are mostly numerous coins I submit to them for grading. I've used SEGS about 6 times already in terms of my own coin submissions to them. The last 8 digits you may enter in the barcode at their coin lookup and it will tell the date it was graded. Their old slabs were mostly (but not all) overgraded or problem coins. I constantly submit coins to them now and notice just about all seem conservatively and properly graded. Also if there are problem coins they are found. The way I've come to this assessment is by looking at enough of their slabs in person and from the Internet alike, comparing both new and older slabs. SEGS is a good company now and deserve full acceptance into the marketplace.

 

The best way to get the market to accept segs is to advocate and promote them nonstop on coin internet forums without providing any tangible evidence of their quality.

 

"if you collect coins and hope to profit from them in the future than you need to go after high end items that will attract the attention of the upper class.Unfortunately the middle class isn't doing so well and it will continue to get worse. This is why I predict that most coins under $15,000 are going to lose significant value"

If I buy a 15k coin and the upper end of the market drops 10%, I'm out 1.5k
If I buy a 100 dollar coin and the lower end of the market drops 50%, I'm out 50 bucks.

Then add fees.
I can sell my now 50 dollar coin on ebay and fees are around 10 bucks including shipping... so lost a total of 60 bucks.
In a high end auction, the fees are likely to be higher, but assuming 10%, I'm out another 1.35k just to sell the coin.... so lost a total of 2.850k.

... doesn't take long for small drops in high end to make huge losses at the low end look petty.

... if you think we are in a bubble, then go ahead and enjoy the hobby, but do the math and figure out how much $ your good with flushing down the toilet.

 

I knew dozens of kids who sold their childhood collections in the '60's and most got back 30 to 70% of their total investment. I was lucky and got back 105% but this was due primarily to a single coin; 1913-D type II Buff in VF. Most of my coins bought mail order in the late-50's/ early '60's were overgraded and big money losers. My "VG" '21-S was sold as AG and was probably a G-. I just happened to get the '13-D cheap and it went up.

I don't think coins are in a bubble now but I do think there will be pricing pressure on some popular coins. New collectors are going to collect whatever they will and their tastes aren't predictable. Coins that have substantial demand in popular series will be coming on the market and if that series loses popularity then prices could drop. This isn't to say any coins are overpriced merely that there is a new type of risk; demographic risk. Some common coins have high prices because they are very popular and these could be at risk.

I would avoid buying coins at any extreme right now other than rarity. Very high grade coins are risky to the degree new collectors might not want them to the degree they are wanted now and popular series are at the same risk. Of course collectors will always desire rarity so a Morgan VAM that's extremely rare or a clad quarter that's actually rare in high grade are still relatively "safe". The ones to avoid except for collecting are things like a chGem '80-S dollar or a cameo PR-67 1968 no-S dime.

If you stick with coin collecting rather than investment you don't really need toworry too much about the changes ahead. If you're going to want to sell popular coins in a few years or "mid level" coins you might consider moving it up. If you have extremely valuable coins then these are safe as long as the country is run by big business. If you are investing in coins the next few years might be an object lesson in why it's unwise to put your money into any collectible.