Why is it the estimates on some of these are so low? I'm not talking about EVERY coin, obviously there are a few discrepancies but for example electrum. Most EL hectes that are well-centered and VF or higher estimate in the 300-500 range. Lydian trites estimate in the 500-1000 range even though they ALWAYS go for more than that (and yeah, I know they are common and that's what is in Sear but that was also written in the 70's and they are high in demand). I think CNG only recently bumped up the price, and only a bit. I've yet to see one of these go for less than twice the estimate. I'm sure with some digging one could find an example but you get the point. Is this all a ruse to buy for less and/or attract more bidders?
I believe you are correct; it is done to attract bidders who would probably not chase the coin if the estimate reflected reality. Get those bidders excited, hopefully emotionally attached... and maybe they will stretch for the coin. Even while suspecting the ploy, this psychology has worked on me a time or two.
Hell, I'm one of the guys who estimates them and I still get sucked in from time to time. The first thing to remember is estimate ≠ price. I have a very hard time getting consignors to understand this concept. The second thing to remember is that estimates set the opening bid, and that is really what the auction houses want low. It's not always as shady as you make it sound. When a coin estimated for $100 sells for $150, the consignor is happy - it did better than expected! But when the same coin is estimated for $200 and sells for $150? Not so happy. Finally, low estimates give more margin for error. If you estimate a coin for $100, and you're way low, it can still sell. But if you estimate it for $500 and it was actually worth $200, you're sitting on an unsold. Unsolds mean wasted labor and wasted time.
Good points Bill. I guess I would, if I were coin king for a day, simply prefer it to be: 1. Starting Bid 2. Estimated value The estimate having no bearing on starting bid, and the estimate being a more realistic idea of the value. I go through some coin catalogs and they will have a coin I KNOW, and so does everyone else, will sell for $1000 estimated at $150. At some point it becomes disingenuous, and it feels the auction house is just setting extreme lowball estimates to artificially brag about how much above "estimate" the auction went for. Maybe if they didn't always have that press release bragging how much better than estimate they did on the sale I wouldn't mind as much. Just my opinion on the subject. We do, of course, value your perspective on the issue. We know you aren't the marketing department!
That certainly would be refreshing, to know what the lot should be worth before it sells. But it won't happen. Here's why: http://www.cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=198160 http://www.cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=218682 Same coin, same photo, relisted a few months later. It might even be considered WORSE the second time, because light scratches are noted. Now look at the estimates. $300 estimate sold for $180, $100 estimate sold for $300. By the way, exactly zero people actually care about the "x times over estimate" statement. Everyone looks at the sell-through rate.
Ardy => you absolutely rock, my friend!! Yah, if I had your "dream-job", then I'd definitely be: a) fired for theft, and/or b) divorced, due to spending way too much on coins!!! ... okay ooops, well maybe it's not a dream-job, but you know what I mean, right? Man, I can only imagine the temptation to buy-buy-buy every single coin that crosses your path at work, every single day!!! => can you say => "Rat in a cheese factory?" => ummm fine, how 'bout => "Alcoholic in a winery?" ... exactly!! My hat is off to you my cool, CNG friend!! (you must have ice-water in your veins?!!) Cheers
I really believe this demonstrates how many people who saw the lot knew who Narseh was and cared enough to want that particular coin. A realization over the start bid requires two bidders. Most of us have had the experience of having seen too late a coin we wanted and that sold for half what we would have paid (or when we were on spousal restriction because of what else we just bought). It would be interesting to see this coin sold a third time or know if the second buyer was a dealer who knew a customer who might pay even more.
Well, for me, low estimates have an ambivalent effect. On the one side, they are making me greedy and on the other, I am becoming somehow suspicious thinking low estimates are a sign of something being wrong with the coins. Further, since I am lacking sovereignty, I have difficulty with assessing the value of a coin when the estimate is omitting to do so.
