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Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Detecto92, Aug 10, 2014.

  1. CamaroDMD

    CamaroDMD [Insert Clever Title]

    Short term is never the way to make money on investments. You stand a FAR greater chance of losing everything than making money.

    Only someone who has no experience investing and no business knowledge would suggest such a thing.
     
    Morgandude11 and spirityoda like this.
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  3. rzage

    rzage What Goes Around Comes Around .

    That's what I was going to say , guess you beat me to it .
     
    spirityoda likes this.
  4. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    Welcome back.

    It you own ETF's that only hold baskets of 10 companies, I would say you own the wrong ETF's. You need way more diversification, and you don't need to own a lot of different ETFs to get there. IMHO, you ought to liquidate what you have, and instead put all your money into either a Total Market US, or Total Market World ETF, like: VT (6,348 companies) and VTI (3,740 companies) My kids own VT.

    My wife and I own a similar extremely diversified product, but with bonds, the mutual fund Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund.

    Also, stock yield is only one part of a stocks return. I realize you made the caveat "and as long as the price did not chance", but that is a BIG caveat, and gives very flawed estimated returns. You have free access to the historical data between 1992 and now, so why are you giving fake numbers out for the stock market? We KNOW what the returns are in the past for a broadly diversified portfolio, using an index like the Wilshire 5000 (better) or the SP500 (easier).

    SP500 is + 378%.

    So you're $1,000 example would be $4,780!! A lot better than your coin examples.


    upload_2014-8-10_23-1-56.png


    I've said it before, I'll say it again, you really, really ought to spend time here:

    http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php

     
  5. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    BRILLIANT! All you have to do -- ALL you have to do -- is know when to make the right moves. In other words, know when an investment is going to move up or down.

    In other words, accurately predict the future.

    Sure, short-term gains can get you ahead. But short-term losses will knock you flat. And, unless you've got that crystal ball, you can not consistently lock in the short-term gains and avoid the short-term losses.

    It's possible that you have come out ahead in your investments, possibly for several years. In fact, if you got in around 2008-2009, you've probably done great, just like the chart @geekpryde just posted. But the next time a 2007-2008 comes along, you'll be a sad, sad panda.
     
    Amanda Varner and josh's coins like this.
  6. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    Yup, terrible advice. I knew some Enron people who had 100% of their investments in Enron. They watched it real close, since they worked there. Too bad the same day they lost their JOB, there retirement savings also went to just about NIL. There are 100 other stories just like this.

    @josh's coins: Stop picking stocks (gambling) and start investing.

    Read here ASAP, your still young, and can still "fix" your extremely flawed thinking.

    Bogleheads investing mini-reference
     
  7. josh's coins

    josh's coins Well-Known Member

    overall I have gained money. I've taken some big hits and made some bold moves and taken large amounts of risk that would scare the living daylights out of people. some paid off some did not. I've always set aside money to use as a bankroll for investments. I've lost everything 2 times so far from risks that did not pay off. But right now I'm doing just fine. I'm up $15,000.

    I don't recommend this sort of investing for anyone. I have a lot of connections between family and friends in high places in the financial section. To be successful doing this you need to be fearless and you need to be smart. Or you are going to lose everything.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2014
  8. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    JPeace$, Rassi and Amanda Varner like this.
  9. brg5658

    brg5658 Well-Known Member

  10. 19Lyds

    19Lyds Member of the United States of Confusion

    It's about "COLLECTING" not "INVESTING"

    From the investment standpoint, no COIN DEALER is going to hold a coin in inventory for 22 years.

    IF by chance, you knowledge of investing in stocks/bonds or whatever, equals what you've learned regarding coins since you first graced the CT pages.........,

    .............I'm hoping you learn something at College but I ain't holding my breath since, in your owns words: ".......I have not decided what exactly I am going to college for.........", it doesn't sound like you have any idea about what to do.
     
  11. Blissskr

    Blissskr Well-Known Member

    It also depends on just how many 'eggs' one has to put in into various baskets. Your view could be sensible for someone younger who can keep a close watch and make moves to grow that basket in size rather than diversifying into a large number of things but having very few eggs in each one. Once the amounts have grown diversifying could be done when it becomes too risky to be placing all assets into one class.
     
    josh's coins likes this.
  12. josh's coins

    josh's coins Well-Known Member

    Gee thanks
     
  13. josh's coins

    josh's coins Well-Known Member

    Looks like someone here actually understands.
     
  14. Detecto92

    Detecto92 Well-Known Member

    Josh..just wondering what kind of "short term" you are doing? Futures? Options? Simple day trading?
     
  15. bdunnse

    bdunnse Who dat?

    Ti...Ti....Timmah!!!
     
  16. Detecto92

    Detecto92 Well-Known Member

    The point that seemed to have been lost along the thread is:

    I'm not looking to base my retirement on rare coins, but make them 10-20 percent of my portfolio.

    The point with investing....the whole market may not crash, but it CAN crash.

    There is always a possibility.

    Think of it this way...if you got ready to retire...and the recession of '09 hit, your entire portfolio would tank quite a bit.

    Yet your rare coins would not have lost much value, if any.

    I don't see a 16-D dime being worth $20 30-40 years from now.

    I don't think they are a great investment, but they are not a bad investment.

    If you had bought rare coins when you were 20, and retired in 2009 (so that's a good 40 years back), the money you gained on your coin investment would negate the portfolio loss from a recession or a depression.
     
  17. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    The absolute BEST thing that can happen for you and @josh's coins is that there is a 90%+ crash, and an extended period afterwards of depressed prices (think 1929-1932). You two are so young, you can ACCUMULATE at rock bottom prices.

    - Warren Buffett.

    I know Brandon told me to hold my breath, but I hope that between the two of you, there is enough brains to walk down to your local library and get a few good books on financial history.

    I own and recommend: Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation
     
  18. josh's coins

    josh's coins Well-Known Member

    What sort of experience do you have in investments?
     
  19. BooksB4Coins

    BooksB4Coins Newbieus Sempiterna

    I wouldn't count on it, but hope springs eternal... ;)
     
    Treashunt and geekpryde like this.
  20. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    I started investing at age 16. I was an active investor for many years until around age 22. I'm a passive investor now, so its very SIMPLE and manage my own IRA, my wife's IRA, my brothers IRA, my nieces IRA, my kids taxable accounts (no earned income). I helped people understand stock options when I worked at Starbucks (we got grants) and 401(k) I've ready 30+ books on the subject, 5 or so blogs daily, wall street journal subscription, financial forums, etc....

    The point is, it can all be cooked down into something quite simple: Own everything, forever. aka, get a low cost mutual fund that tracks a broad market index. allocate based on your age and risk tolerance. never sell it, or time the market.

    Now, just mail me a check for $10,000, since I just saved you a lifetime of financial disappoint and regret.
     
    JPeace$ and Morgandude11 like this.
  21. josh's coins

    josh's coins Well-Known Member

    I'm getting pretty tired of being treated like a little kid who does not know a darn thing about anything. Sure I might not be old enough to have a drink at a bar but that doesn't mean that I don't know my way around the block. If you were to meet me in person you might just walk away thinking I was a very wise gentlemen. ( I mean wise via wisdom not being a smartypants)

    To think that all young lads are a bunch of idiots who do drugs and play video games all day is the same sort of ignorance that gives you the notion that black men are inferior to whites. Sure it is an extreme comparison but I think it gets the point across. Not everyone fits stereotypes and in some cases most people do not. That is the case for my generation. I'd say that maybe a quarter of my generation very well fit the stereotypes but the rest of us are seeking knowledge and preparing to change the world. Who knows you might end up working for someone my age very soon.

    I'm almost 20 and I'm a founder and ceo of 2 companies. I already employee 3 people 1 of whom is a man at the age of 55.
     
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