Future Key Dates?

Some coin types don't have what is considered a key date. At least not yet. One example would be Franklin Half Dollars. Frankie's lowest mintage year is 1955 but it is considered by most to not have a key date throughout the series. I understand that a key date is simply more than just low mintage number. Survival being another main factor. However, what does it take for a specific year to become a key date? Is their some accepted criteria that officially makes a date a key date? Also, what other types/years do you think are good candidates for future key dates?

 

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I guess you could say that modern lincoln cents may become key dates in 50 years. At the rate they corrode most will be gone in 10 years

 

One thing's for sure: they'll be a condition rarity problem-free in anything less than F12 or so.

 

maybe the first date it was made ? guessing here.

 

This is not be the only factor in determining what a key date is but here's a good reason.
The demand outstrips the supply.

That means if a 1,000,000 people want a coin of which only 500,000 were struck it's headed towards "key" status.
But if only 5,000 people want a coin of which 10,000 were struck then it is unlikely to achieve "key" status.

 

I'm thinking that the 2009 P&D nickels and dimes as well as most of the ATB quarters will be rarities. I rarely see the ATB's in circulation and never the 2009 P&D nickels and dimes.

 

For the Franklin half series, I like the varieties: 1955-P Bugs Bunny, 1958-P Type II reverse, and 1959-P DDR as keys. TC

 

I second the thought on the 2009 nickels and dimes. For the dimes I think it was the lowest mintage since 1958. I have no doubt that if the series changes and people begin to fill in sets that the '09 P and D will draw a higher demand, but I guess the future will only tell.

 

I disagree with the 2009 coins gaining key status, they'll probably end up like the 1883 no cents or 50D nickels. The reason you never see them is because everybody kept them.

As for my prediction, I 'm going out on a limb and nominate the 1958 Washington quarter. They have a low mintage relative to others of that era, and currently have a low value. However, I will bet that low survival due to melting low value coins will make this a key in the future. I search junk silver and pull out the high grade coins. I have found mint state coins for every other date/mm combination from 41 to 64, in most cases numerous examples. But I have never found a mint state 58P quarter.

 

I see your point. That is why I also like the 1958 Type B reverse variety as well. TC

 

Is the 1983 P Washington quarter already considered a key providing it is in MS 65 or higher??

 

Any fully lustrous '83-P is scarce. This coin is common enough in AU but most nice '83-P's came from circulation. The reason that MS-60's go for only about $35 is that most MS-60's are very ugly coins. They are poorly struck from worn dies and banged up. They are not at all common and far scarcer than most people realize. The low price is the result of poor demand. Most people have an AU or even an XF in their collection and don't know it.

Most clads are far scarcer in nice condition than people know. Even in nice VF some of these are pretty elusive. The coins went into circulation and most are now lost or heavily worn but the lack of demand means they are cheap.

 

Thanks for your input, Cladking. Any idea why the US Mint did not produce mint sets in 1982 and 1983? I obtained a couple P & D souvenir sets a while back; one set may contain a possible MS-65 quarter; the other set has a quarter struck on an extremely worn die.

 

It was one of Ronald Reagan's cost cutting moves. Much to my surprise there was so much complaint that the mint sets were brought back in 1984.

Thereare some fairly nice coins in the souvenir sets but in my opinion none of the '82-P or '83-P are true Gems because they aren't well enough struck. This is the source of most of the coins graded high by the services but they just aren't very well made.

 

Don't forget the Mint sealed bags, cladking. many of the gem coins from 82 and 83 came from original Mint sealed bags, most of which have been opened and no longer exist.

I also disagree that the low mintages of the 2009 coins will at any time be rare. They are hoarded worse than the 50-D nickels and we all know that story. In the case of Roosevelt Dimes, the lowest mintage coin is the 1955 from Philadelphia, but the key coin is the 1949-S. This example illustrates that there is more than mintage numbers to a key coin.

I also urge you to look at the 1955 Philly dime and ask, what is the mintage of this coin in comparison to the mintage of the 2009 Dimes and Nickels? The answer is that there are at least 3 times as many of the 2009s.

Try finding a 1955 Philly Dime. It's easy because they're not rare. The 2009s are more than 3 times less rare. They are just in hiding (in hoarders hands) at the moment. They'll surface given some time and they won't be scarce, let alone rare.

 

Ole Ron. What a smile and charisma he had. It's amazing how much slack a great smile can buy. A bit off topic I know, but just sayin'.

 

Are you sure you're not hoarding 2009 dimes and trying to make it seem like they aren't worthy??? I'm just joking man. I agree actually. I think the "low mintage" stands out so much that there are tons of BU rolls hoarded. Besides, 49 million+ is not chump change. That's a lot of of coins. Especially in an ever increasing digital world.

I must say, I am a bit surprised this thread I started has gotten so many replies, especially from heavy weight members such as cladking and mikenoodle. Thank you for your contributions and knowledge.

 

Every series has a "key date". It is simply the piece that is the toughest one to locate, and usually the most expensive one. That does NOT mean though that it may be worth much. If you have a series where everything is pretty common and they are all just say a dollar each, but one of them is a dollar and a quarter, that one is the key date. Still common as dirt, but it IS the key.

 

I agree and that's what I believe, but I've read in some articles where some types are considered to not have a key date. I guess that's just the authors opinion/view. It's really just a matter of preference. Who's to say someone is wrong for calling the most scare date in a series a key date or not. With that said, I am with you that the toughest find is a key date.

 

Proof Silver sets
Silver Proof sets two dates come to mind 2008+2012 both are low mintage like 1999-S Silver Proof set.