Today I picked up an RFK $1 commemorative in its complete original packaging. When I got home I pulled completed auctions on Ebay to see how I did and was happy to see that I got a great deal from the LCS. While looking through the completed listings I noticed that most of the coins were sold without packaging. Some were slabbed and even more were in capsules only with no box or COA, and there were even a couple empty boxes that sold for $10 plus. Although most modern U.S. Mint products haven't done well in recent years, I'm wondering if there is some serious growth potential for commemoratives with OGP. A lot of these, including the RFK, have overall mintages that are only in the 200K range to begin with, and with so many packages being thrown away the number of coins surviving with OGP could be quite small. Could these be some rarities in the making that will shoot up in value after the modern coin slabbing bubble pops? If people are paying $10 for an empty box is there already some demand developing?
Some folks like OGP and others don't really care. Kinda like payting attention to the slab? Me? It does not matter one way or the other.
Wouldn't tens of thousands be quite a low number if there was significant demand? Even if we don't consider packaging, 200K is pretty low. From what I have read there are lots of Morgan dollars, even Carson City issues, with surviving populations higher than that in uncirculated condition.
Correct. The big difference is that folks actually WANT those enough to pay some serious money for them. The commemoratives................not so much. Not that your purchase is any less important to you as I have many commemoratives with the OGP. But, I have them because I want them and I have never entertained the thought that they or their packaging will ever be worth anymore than what I paid for them. And the way I operate, probably "less" than what I paid.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the 1998 $1 RFK Commem originally issued with the 1998 50c JFK that had a "satin" or "special finish"? Some of these JFK's were originally graded "MS" but then it was changed to "SP". I have two of the JFK's graded PCGS MS69. At one point, these were selling in the neighborhood of $275-300, but I have no idea what they sell for now. The RFK Commem never seemed to be very popular. Personally, I think it is a very poor likeness of Bobby. Chris
But that's just it, there really isn't significant demand. There never has been for commems. Regardless of mintage, scarcity of surviving examples, or anything else - the market will always tell you what is going on. You want a 1909-S VDB in MS65 ? You can go buy 10 of them on any day you choose. You'll pay a small fortune, but you can buy them any day you want. That's the market talking to you, telling you what is going on. The question is, do you know what it's saying ? It's telling you the coins are common, but there is a big demand, they are popular, and because of that they are expensive. Modern commems, or classic commems for that matter, you can go buy 10 of them any day you want, and they won't cost you all that much. That's the market telling you what is going on too. And what it's telling you is that you'd probably be best off not buying 10 of them. And then people say what if ? OK, what if ? Look at history, history answers what ifs. Classic commems, some of them are soon gonna be a 100 years old. And they have been the dogs of the numismatic market since they came out. That's the market telling you what is going on. And what will probably go on tomorrow as well. That's the answer to what ifs.
Right. People loved the 2001 Buffalos and now there is a premium. The 2013 Girl Scout mintages were much lower but there was no collector interest.
I think that Amanda's blog addresses the OP's concerns. http://lifeatthecoinshop.com/2013/11/19/scarcity-vs-rarity-and-my-first-big-lesson/ IMO, she should share this out as it is an invaluable lesson that a lot of folks need to learn.
