Get a load of this: http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=3929944578&ssPageName=STRK:MEWA:IT I agree with GDs prior posts that these condition rarities are the next "coin bubble", but based on this, the bubble hasn't burst yet!!!
If that was priced at $20, I wouldn't buy it. It's just not important for me to say, "mine's better'n your's". I've got a nice 2004-D Keelboat, that a fellow coin-nut sent me. No charge, of course. Now that's what the hobby is all about. The online auction, in the OP's example, just confirms that some people have a lot more money than they can use, and has nothing to do with coin collecting as a hobby.
I've been collecting moderns in pop tops since long before there were any pops or even other collectors. The satisfaction comes in finding coins in conditions one wouldn't have even imagined existed. It comes from the scarcity and the beauty of the coins. While it's wise to be hesitant to pay large premiums for a brand new nickel, it's probably safe to pay some premium for a coin that looks like a branch mint matte proof even if it is less than a year old. Coins of this caliber have been exceedingly scarce to non-existent for decades and chances are that this year is no different. Since it's a "one" year type it may not be a disaster even if you're wrong.
Not a bad looking coin, though (aside from that spot on his cheek). I have a couple Sackies that have that same matte finish - it looks great!
Insane! The coins have just come out - many banks don't even have them yet - so how logical is it to assume that this will remain a "Pop 1" With the quality of the coins in the three rolls I picked up from my bank yesterday being far higher than typical for the traditional Monticello nickle - sharp strikes and no marks under 5x magnification, I wouldn't be surprised if the keel boats set new records for high grade examples..
Think about this.... if the PCGS registry did NOT exist would that coin have gone that high? Absolutely not. It frustrates me to no end how the registry drives the market as it does....
Make no mistake - I think it is entirely crazy to pay that kind of money for these coins. But as condition rarities - they are very scarce. There's no doubt about that. You just don't find coins struck for circulation in MS68. If somebody holds onto these coins in these ultra-high grades for a generation or two - then maybe.
This is likely an extremely rare coin today. But even if it isn't, almost every one of the others will be worn enough to no longer be a contender in only six years. It takes three years for them all to rotate out of fed storage and then another three years because some will go right back into storage. The coin isn't going to get a great deal more rare after that because those who have choice examples are going to remain unlikely to spend or allow their coins to be destroyed. Quality won't increase with the passage of time. Some people will find the coin increasingly nostalgic as time goes on and there will be more people using the coin in day to day commerce, but there are people who find the coin interesting NOW. You do certainly have a point. Look how long it's taken for the old clad coins to get a modest following. It has been a couple generations. Even one generation ago (BEFORE THE GRADING SERVICES), it was still possible to find most of the clads for very low prices. Of course the Ikes and Kennedys commanded large premiums (BEFORE THE REGISTRIES) even in those days, but the clads used day to day had almost no following. The same thing applied a generation or two ago: Rare coins are difficult to find and do not get easier with the passage of time. And rare coins do not get more collectible with the passage of time even though it may seem so as larger numbers of people begin collecting them.
One of the last 1804 dollars that sold commanded a much higher price because it was the second or third highest graded specimen. If memory serves, the premium exceeded a million dollars. Yet if you go look at the PCGS registry sets which contain this coin, what you see is this: " " In other words someone paid a million dollars premium for a registry quality coin and then didn't add it to the registry. By the same token, THE NICKEL IN QUESTION IS NOT NEEDED FOR THE REGISTRY AT THE CURRENT TIME. Sure, maybe someone is anticipating it being needed in the future just as they're anticipating it being rare in the future. The fact is that there are people who collect 1804 dollar and 2004 nickels and don't put them in registry collections. Those who desire the finest 2004 nickels can buy the coins for a mere pittance compared to the finest of any of the classic coins. While paying such a premium may not be wise, it most assuredly has not raised anyone's standing in the registries.
Well the registry programs are geared more to those who love to show off. If you own a complete classic such as an 1804 Dollar, the coin does all the bragging for you.
Someone always has to be first, will this coin remain to be the top grade for this coin? I think not, no doubt its a nice coin for a business strike,Im surprised no one spotted the ding on the shoulder, but then as I always stand, grading is subjectional !! in my opinion the coin should not have graded above a 65 with that mark on the design. Rick
