In my other thread, somebody posted links to three recent ebay auctions for the 1894. $345, 353, and $359. I conceded to overpaying at $385 for mine, which is a PCGS graded MS61. Yesterday another PCGS MS61 1894 $10 piece closed on ebay: AT $371!!!!!!! Im thinking maybe I hastily admitted to overpaying. Im firm in my conclusion that the book price of $400 is a fair price. It seems to be typical of coin and stamp collectors, that they always want to buy at a price lower that the book. People dont like the book prices. But the books are written by coin guys; some are dealers; some are collectors. Everybody is a collector is the collection is big enough in my opinion. The books price my $10 piece at anywhere from $400 to $525. The coin tracks the price of gold? sure, probably it does. But the coin in even the lowest mint state condition, slabbed by a top-tier grading company has a numismatic premium above the gold spot.. The short term fluctations cant really be given much credence. People who invest in the stock market are told not to pay much attention to short-term fluctuation. Ebay, and any auction, is part luck: right time of day, right day of the week. Like I said; another 1894 closed yesterday at $371. Same grade and slab as mine. On that basis I reject the comment from some others that I overpaid by $30 to $50 bucks. $400 is a fair ceiling for that coin. Plus nobody mentions any kind of mathamatical formula for applying numismatic value on top of the gold value. seems to me the 1894 gold $10 at MS61 is worth 1.33 Times the gold spot rate, based on prices I see. ...somebody said collectors dont care about price. Not true, or we would all be collecting soda-bottle caps. ...when I was six years old, one day I had a cardboard milk container cut in half. Inside I had a magnet, some soda-bottle caps, and a paperclip. That day I thought those few pieces of junk were the most amazing things in the world. Thirty years later I dont remember what I did with that stuff. I just remember that one afternoon playing with that stuff. But I digress. ...today I bought a 1942 walking liberty half dollar. $41. nice ondition. MS61? MS62? who knows. I went against my rule of buying only PCGS slabbed coins. But its my first venture into walking liberty coins. First one for the whitman holder that Ive had for 12 years. I reject that notion of buy the coin, not the slab. If its PCGS, I prefer the "buy the slab" mentality. Most dealers are prone to agreeing with the PCGS grade. ...otherwise, if the dealers had that 'buy the coin" mentality, they would grade downwards to screw you out of money, then they pack the car for the next show across the state line, and bada-bing, they jacked up the grade to sell the coin and make a bundle.
When it comes to many coins...especially Gold, all of the book values or price sheets in the world are not going to be reflective of the true market as Collectors, Investors and Coin Owner Wannabees in this fast growing Coin Market are re-writing the rules (values)! I have an 1880 $5 Gold piece that is an AU and an 1881 $5 Gold piece that is EF. Most values show that they are worth around $275 and $255 respectively but I can't even get $175 for either one.
Ya know---there is only one thing wrong with that kind of thinking---the trends show other wise---when one person goes out and over pays that doesn't mean all at once the coin is worth more---now try to find 3-4 more coins selling for the same $$ in the next few days and maybe someone will agree---the market value of a coin is the average selling price---and as it was pointed out you over paid---even if some nut goes out and pays $1000 for the same coin---that doesn't mean that the coin is worth that..... Speedy
huntsman53: interesting: Im not sure if what your'e saying contradicts what Im saying, or maybe the coins you mention simply follow different trends from the $10 gold piece. Correct me if Im wrong: the $5 piece is a quarter ounce of gold. so the scrap value probably is about $140 at current gold prices. Then theres the premium for mumismatic value. Maybe the market doesnt give anywhere near book value for your two coins because they are lower than the lowest mint state. I dont know. if the books show $275 and $255, then theres retail coin shops charging that. Are they getting it? very possibly. There might be a lot of coin collectors that dont get to shows. Ebay might have driven the market down. "sell it fast. sell it cheap: the new mantra of ebay bidders?" of course, you're talking abot $5 pieces. The hobby might be biased against them. Maybe collectors prefer the larger coins. Antique pocket watches sell better in the larger sizes. Ladies wrist watches are allegedly a commodity nobody wants. Its the mens watches that sell. But a side-note: In this modern society I dont understand gold as a safe investment. In a political crisis, they bid up gold. you cant eat it you cant drink it. Nobody can break a gold coin into smaller bills for you. They wont break a twenty. what the hell do you do with a gold coin? if terrorism disrupts the supply of energy, or the flow of commerce and banking, then commerce will collapse, and gold will be useless. you better learn to grow food, and make clothes and fish and build a log cabin. Call me a crazy nut, but thats what I believe. where will you make your money? Gold will adjust upwards for inflation. take a 20 year long-term position on some gold, and sell after twenty years of inflation increase its core value. and hope in twenty years, the lights still go on, and the store has fresh produce, and all is well.
ah, yes, speedy, maybe I was the nut when I took the buy-it-now price of $384. But $371 for the same coin came after people freely bidding it up. Auction value is usually a little lower than retail. Unless its a rare piece, then auction value could be anything. I agree value is not cemented by one crazy buyer, when theres only one interest party. When theres multiple bidders bidding up an item, I think that gives credence to a high price. Its arguments like this that keeps me from buying a high value coin. I dont want to buy a $1800 coin for close to its value and hear from a dealer, "I can give you $380." We agree to disagree perhaps. Do we agree its a subjective thing?
Well if you are happy with your purchase then I am glad too, as that is the most important part of coin collecting. I think we all have different ideas on what is best to buy, and only time will tell who ends up with the best choice. But happiness is also worth something and if you enjoy the coin then that is what you should strive for. If you are not looking at this though as enjoyment but rather as a pure investment, then the only enjoyment is if it appreciates in value. On that chance then the choice really matters much more, as it is more difficult to pick winners. I can say from personal experience having seen coin prices fluctuate over a long time that it is possible in twenty years the price of gold could be what it is today or even less. There is no guarantee it only goes up, just ask those that bought gold coins the last time it ran up to $700 and see how long they waited just to break even [I have also seen prices on coin holders from that 1980 time period and it isn't a nice thing to see]. So for a coin that only tracks the price of gold, the speculation is on the price of gold then and not on the coins itself. One must be able to predict the gold market and hope that the prediction is correct. I think that is very hard to do, especially seeing how the price of gold has already apppreciated over the last three years.
LETSBUYCOINS, I wasn't trying to contradict you! I was just trying to make a point about the overall Coin Market and especially the market for most Gold Coins! Yea, I believe that there is a little bit of bias for $5 Gold Pieces but there is also bias for many of the $2.50 and $20 Gold pieces. Heck, just look at the prices that some of the $20 Gold pieces bring on eBay. Many of them sell at or slightly above their' Gold melt value and some have even sold below that. It's like they have no collectible value whatsoever! Your right about eBay as the amount of goods offered up for auction, has just about destroyed the value of many collectible items. Just look at the values of Baseball Cards...especially the commons. Heck, most of the commons which sold for $0.10 to $1.00 some 10 to 15 years ago, today you are lucky to get $0.01 a piece on eBay. Now as far as Gold coins (as well Silver coins, precious metals in bullion and precious gems) goes, when the economy is in the sewers, they will be about the only thing that will get you food and other necessities when you need them with the exception of a loaded gun! Just remember history and what happened to Post WWI Germany when people were starving and a wheel barrel of 10,000,000 Deutsche Mark notes (Not Geld), would not even buy a loaf of bread. To me, Silver is and has almost always been the better investment with the exception being Rhodium...especially in the current economy but it is always good to pack some Gold and other precious items away. If and when the economy is in the sewers and I believe it will be (not too long from now), needed items will be more readily obtained with Gold and Diamonds.
A few points.... #1 -- Just because there's another buyer on eBay at a similar price doesn't mean you didn't overpay. Perhaps you both overpaid. #2 -- The average price for these coins on Heritage is closer to $320. Please don't take people suggesting you overpaid for a coin personally, it happens to us all. If you like the coin, there's nothing wrong with your purchase....Mike
Well if we have a few dealers here they can tell us what they are selling it for perhaps? that way we will get a super accurate picture.
LETSBUYCOINS, I have a feeling you are going to dismiss this, but you shouldn't. It's pretty simple. You can look for higher ending prices all you want, but bottom line is that if you find enough lower ending prices, then you should be able to understand that it was possible to get the same thing for less. You've been told why the "book price" is inaccurate. Ignore that advice and you *will* overpay again. Bottom line. There is a saying... "A fool and his money are soon parted." You can also dismiss the fluctuations of gold, but I will guarantee you one thing. If spot increased to $1,000 tomorrow, your coin would be worth more, regardless of what your book says. Likewise, if gold dipped to $300 an ounce, good luck getting $371 for that coin. Your coin will increase in value due to one or both of the following reasons: 1) Numismatically It's already been discussed why this is unlikely. Common pieces don't skyrocket. 2) Gold Spot As explained, if gold hits $1,000 (or increases any amount), your coin's value will go up. If that happens, you'll be able to read all about it in your 2009 edition Red Book, but in 2009 the price will be... ???
LETSBUYCOINS, you seem entirely too uptight about the price you paid for your coin (no offense intended). As has been stated, if you're happy with your coin, try to leave it at that. I bought a $10 gold piece a little while ago that I paid a little over the current price trend for. However, I thought it had great eye appeal and since the time I bought it, it's gone up and is probably worth $25 - $50 more than I paid for it. So you never know what's going to happen. Whether or not you overpaid for your coin is subjective in my opinion. There are so many factors that apply to coin pricing that there really isn't a formula. You have to keep in mind mintage, surviving population, population in the specific grade you're looking at, current market trends (as often indicated by recently completed auctions), popularity of the series, eye appeal for each specific coin, and the list goes on and on. So, once you take all of these factors into account, you decide what you're willing to pay for a coin and then you buy it at or below that price. Heck, you can have two 1894 $10 gold pieces both technically graded MS61 by PCGS... However, one could have tons more eye appeal than the other. In that case, I'd be willing to pay more for the one with better eye appeal than the other. Try to keep all these things in mind. Have a great weekend!
LetsBuy: First, I don't think that 3.6 % difference in price ($385 v $371) is extreme. The seller felt that it was a fair price, and you agreed, so you purchased it. I could have felt the same way about quite a few coins that I have purchased. Recent example is an 1896 S, ANACS (old slab) VG-10 for a very high $1,260, that trends for $1200 in VG and $2000 in fine. But did I over pay? I don't think so, even though I also have another VG-10 in a PCGS holder that I paid $300 for, in 1998. I am truly happy with both pieces, and plan on keeping both of them. So, the end result is : buy what you like.
Dealer asking prices are typically the highest you'll ever see, and they can differ by as much as 50% from one dealer to the next. No, dealer asking prices are not the way to go.
That's easy, numismatic value is determined by subtracting intrinsic value from total value. Total value is determined by averaging realized prices. Just that simple.
