I was looking at a coin, this time from 1869 where the business strike mintage was 423,700 and it's stated that they (the business strikes) are "considerably rarer than proofs" of this issue (mintages of the proofs was 600). Now, I can understand it might be harder to find MS60 and above, and maybe that's what they meant, but it doesn't appear so and that's not what it said. It seems they are saying that the business strikes are just flat-out more rare ("considerably rarer"). I'm just wondering how that's possible. That would mean that *over* 99.8% of them (422,853) were destroyed, shipped to another country, melted, or otherwise MIA -and that's assuming that *all* 600 proofs remain intact and accounted for. I find it hard to believe that is possible (that *all* 600 proofs remain today so who knows what the current number is), so let's say the number is closer to 99.9% of all the business strikes being MIA (leaving ~423) to make them "considerably rarer." Someone explain this to me, please. Source: http://cgi.liveauctions.ebay.com/52...tegoryZ52618QQihZ007QQitemZ170062552184QQrdZ1
samjimmy: Generally 'they' are talking about uncs. Especialy considering that proofs were made for collectors, and were carefully saved. The others were simply dumped into circulation and any savings was done haphazardly. So, it is by chance that a regular issue was saved, probably by someone who didn't get a proof. Remember, in those days they didn't discriminate by proof v regualr of even saved by mintmarks, which is why some dates are downright rare in uncs.
In those days a few of all the coins were saved. Most of the nice circulated coins survived because they were saved as specie or were overlooked in a vault. Many times even uncs will survive like this, especially with larger denominations. Just like today some of the coins saw very active circulation that involved most individual coins as well. Another thing to consider is that where the number of surviving uncs and proofs is the same the uncs will be worth far more because relatively few people collect proofs.
I'm not trying to say all old proofs are modern counterfeits, BUT, the fact is, if you had high-end equipment, and the knowledge to use them, it would be much easier to produce a proof reproduction of a 150 year old PROOF coin and have it appear authentic, then to reproduce a 150 year old circulation coin and have it appear authentic. I'm not trying to say this is the case with any old proof coins, but sometimes I wonder when out of 500 proof strikes of a coin, 20 of them are available on ebay, and out of the 1 million circulation strikes of the same coin, you can't find any in any condition.
To understand why Proof examples are easier to find than business strikes you have to think back to the times at hand. In 1869 for example, business strikes were made for use in commerce - circulation. But why were Proofs made, and why so few of them ? Well, most of the time they were made by specific request. And the number of them being made was dependant on how many were being requested. The mint at that time just didn't make Proof coins and then wait and see if anybody would come to buy them - they made them because the few well known collectors of the day or notable personalities of the day contacted the mint and requested that they make them. There were also a few made for presentation sets to political figures or world leaders. Now, if someone took the trouble to request these coins, what do think they did with them ? They saved them, put them away and then they were passed on to family members or museums over the years. That's why the Proofs, even with relatively low minatges, are not that hard to come by. But the business strike coins on the other hand were used in commerce. Most examples became worn over time and just disappeared, and if there was any silver in them many of them were melted in later years. Sure there were a few who collected them, but even coins in a collection are often mishandled after 100 years of being passed on to other collectors. And some of them are eventually spent and placed into circulation. So the number of remaining Unc examples dwindles with time. And as time passes, since more people in todays age collect business strikes than they do Proofs, there is greater demand for the business strikes. So, you now have business strikes that are hard to find in nice Unc condition with higher demand, and you have Proofs that are not hard to find in higher grades with lower demand - thus the higher prices for the business strikes.
The exact same thing could be said about the proofs though. Few collected them (with only 600 produced, that's a given), and "coins in a collection are often mishandled after 100 years of being passed on to other collectors" and "some of them are eventually spent and placed into circulation." I've seen a good many of the proofs that looked like they'd been to war and back. Seems to me it would be rare in *any* condition. I think it's fair to say that out of the 600 proofs produced, there aren't 600 left (lost, spent, buried, abused, melted, or otherwise MIA -but exactly how many survived I don't know... less than 600). ~423 proofs might even be high, but let's use it as a ball park, as it matches the mintage of the business strikes x 99.9%. Just hard to believe that a coin with a mintage of 423,700 is "considerably rarer" than a coin with a mintage of 600, and that 423,276 of those 423,700 business strikes are MIA.
According to the redbook the silver content was worth more than face value after 1853 so no business strikes were released for circulation except for export trade./
As Ripley might say, "believe it or not", but it is true - it can happen. I am not sure you have mentioned the exact coin you are referencing, but in the case of Trade Dollars, for example, they were meant to be shipped overseas for trade. Other coins faced similar challenged to preservation - gold was "redeemed" (confiscated) in 1933 by FDR, silver has been through several bull markets where wholesale melting has occurred, etc. The other issue is that proofs are special and most are owned by people who know they are special. To the extent that a business strike of the same date might exist, many of them could be in jewelry boxes or drawers, passed down through generations with no exposure to the coin market.
I think part of the problem is you are thinking in terms of actual rarity and I am discussing condition rarity. As I said in my earlier comments, I was talking about Unc examples - not circulated examples. And yes, I will agree that the same thing can happen to Proof coins saved in a collection, but for whatever reason, it typically happenes less often. Perhaps it is because the people collecting them are more serious about it or just take better care of the Proofs because they know how easily they can be damaged. I dunno, I just know it is so. Let me give you an example, the 1901 Morgan - in PF65 the coin sells for about $6,000; but in MS65 it sells for about $220,000. However, the very same coin in lower grade circulated condition sells for well under $100. A bit of a difference. I realize this is an example of what you are talking about, but it is also an example of what I am talking about and it also reinforces my explanation as being correct. I know it may not seem like it makes sense, but that is the way it is.
Some of the moderns will have far more surprising numbers in the future. Take a coin like the '79-P Sm motto reverse quarter as an example. The regular mintage was 513 million. The sm motto was about 4 million. Mint sets 2 1/2 million and proofs 3 million. Many of the proof sets are still intact and most of the coins from the busted up sets are still pristine. About 2 out of 3 '79 proof quarters are as nice as the day they were made even if many are toned a little or a lot. Two thirds of the mint sets are probably gone and most of the quarters from them are now in circulation and some in collections. The regular mintage is pretty much gone!!! These coins were not saved in any meaningful way. 30% are actually lost permanently or destroyed and the others are in a mostly highly degraded condition. The small motto quarters? Just like the regular coins these too, are pretty much gone as far as pristine condition is concerned. There were a mere handful of wholesalers for BU rolls in those days and spot checks of all their stocks say that none of these coins were saved! Most were released in the Chicago area and none of these wholesalers are located in that area. If none of four million can survive in only 28 years then it's easy to see how only .1% of 400,000 might survive after more than a century. One of these days soon our coins are going to start being melted down and there will probably be very few circulated examples of many coins left either. Most eveything disappears at the rate of at least 1% annually except for big pyramids. This is the way of the world; when time isn't busy flying it's busy bounding and leaping.
I know what you're saying Cladking, but I think there's a big difference between 3,000,000 proofs (proof sets) and 600 proofs. I also understand that the majority of the business strikes were (not surprisingly) circulated and now are lost, worn, etc. I'm really not sure if they meant "condition rarity" or "actual rarity" which would be two different things. It's not clear on the site, so maybe the discussion is pointless until the exact meaning is discovered. I guess that it needs to be clarified (on the site). I understand "condition rarity" and why the MS65 would be more rare and expensive than a PF65. I guess it just strikes me (no pun intended) as odd that one can buy high grade (PF63-ish), 75-150+ year old coins (historical, not as technologically advanced minting process, arguably more beautiful than many moderns), with < 1,000 mintages (sometimes more around 600-700) for $150-$400. If the mint made something like that today, it would sell out on the mint's web site in ohhhhh about 2 seconds and the secondary sales on Ebay and other auction houses would be insane.
You'll get no argument from me on that - I agree completely. But there is a simple explanation for it - supply and demand. Very few want to collect the old Proofs, thus low demand. And based on the given supply that translates into low prices.
