coin dexter posted a thread about one of his coins, a 1913-D type 1 Buff in MS66, and that got me to looking. Not wanting to sidetrack his thread with a different subject I decided to start a new thread. I think most will recall my often posting comments that there is almost always a wide price range for any given coin in any given grade. Even when the coins are graded by the same company and sold in the same rough time frame. I have commented many times that it is not at all unusual for one coin to sell for double what another realized. But in looking at examples of the 1913-D type 1 Buff in MS66, even I was surprised at the results. Surprised ? That doesn't quite cut it, amazed would be more like it. A given coin selling for double another is one thing, it is commonplace. But a given coin selling for 10 times another ? That is not commonplace. The price range runs from $381 to $3,290. And no, it was not because of exceptional color or toning. Nor was it because of a CAC sticker. That $3,290 coin sold for over 4 times what another sold for, same grade, same company, same CAC sticker. And more than double or triple what coins with nice color sold for. I list below 8 links for realized auctions, running from lowest to highest. All for the same given coin in the same given grade. Six of them are PCGS, 2 are NGC. $381 - http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1189&lotNo=7461 $397 - http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1181&lotNo=9122 $411 - http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1186&lotNo=7468 $470 - http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1184&lotNo=7620 $763 - http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1188&lotNo=7409 $977 - http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1157&lotNo=7609 $1,527 - http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1189&lotNo=7462 $3,290 - http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1183&lotNo=7377 Take a look at the $3290 coin, no color at all. A nice strike, but it was struck with worn dies just like many of the others. Nothing exceptional about it, no booming luster but much like all the other pics. Here is one that does have booming luster for a comparison - http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=29021&lotNo=21039 - but yet it sold for $431 back in 2009. So that can't be the explanation. In looking at almost 150 examples of this coin their realized prices run the gamut, but the majority fall in the $400-$500 range for the last 2 years. In fact the majority fall in that range for the last 20 years. But even back in 1994 there were examples that sold for over $1,800 with another in '95 at less than $250. That's a more than 700% range. You'd expect difference in prices from 20 years ago compared to today. But all of those I linked above were sold in the past 12 months, with 1 exception, and that was 2011. I included that coin because of its color. Now that's what I call a price range ! So let this serve as an example for those who often ask - what's this worth ?
Thanks for the info Doug. Goes to show that PCGS doesn't always command a higher premium. The $1527 is NGC.
With all other things being equal, I can only assume that the coin that sold for $3,290 had two or more bidders chasing it. This is the first thing that comes to my mind when there is such a large discrepancy in realized prices. Chris
Is it possible that a few collectors thought this coin might be a rare variety? There is something going on behind the Indian's neck. Maybe a strikethrough? Nothing else makes sense. The coin is certainly not upgrade material and the eye appeal is very average as you have noted.
I've never heard of clashing to raise the price that much , most likely 2 or 3 people with money wanted the coin and kept the bidding going like Chris said .
Auction fever is unlikely here because there is nothing notable about this coin and it is really easy to find in this grade. The strike is average, the luster is below average for the grade IMO, and the eye appeal is below average for the grade IMO. In order to reach a 10X premium, there must be something (real or perceived) by several bidders to warrant the premium. I don't know if that is a die clash, a strike through, or something else, but I would bet that it is the reason for the premium.
Well, for whatever it's worth it was live auction with prior internet bidding. And an internet bidder won it. Rather obviously nobody that looked at the coin in hand saw anything special about. And it would be pretty rare for there not to be somebody who saw it hand to not know there was something special about it, if there was something special about it. That leads me to believe there was not. I cannot see nor can I even imagine any reason to pay anywhere near that for this coin. But there it is.
It is possible that an online bidder mistakenly placed a bid of $4,000 instead of $400. The fact that someone else bid it up to a 10X premium really leads me to think the worst. In the toned coin world we joke about a coin coming with a shovel, indicating that they are buried, when someone pays an insane price for a coin. Whomever bought this coin is gonna need a backhoe instead of a shovel.
2 feathers? What looks to be a weak 3rd feather may actually be a part of the die clash. Going off of the phone
Excellent post Doug. There are many cases like this one, and potential buyers need to understand the dynamics that play into the establishment of value. In the case of the high flyer in your example, I have to wonder if there's another overlooked attribute that better accounts for the price than temporary insanity . . . perhaps a very special die variety known only to a select few specialists? As one's awareness of the scarcity of a particular issue becomes more acute, so does one's tolerance of the need to expend more resources to acquire that targeted issue. I recall when I was considered nuts by others for offering $500 apiece for superb Gem BU 1976-P Type 1 Ike Dollars back in . . . get this . . . 1990. I was never offered any, but I was willing to pay. We all have our weaknesses, and often realize the need to back up our resolve with dollars.
I get e-mails from NGC and ANACS and one of them publishes lists of coins that have gained in value and ones that have dropped in value based on auctions and there is no correlation to anything I know whether a coin will gain or lose.
I would never tell anyone coins are a good investment, however I would also never deny that some coins have predictably been an excellent investment. Critical thinkers read between the lines, and understand that the strong performers are very special, carefully targeted, and often command seemingly obscene prices, but for good reason. At the opposite end of the spectrum are a large number of buyers with fewer sense (sp) than dollars, who prefer to pay no more than price guides publish, and end up with coins worth no more than so many others in that price range. When one buys such generic coins, the resale value is diminished because they don't stand out to the next buyer in line.
