PCGS graded MS 70with shipping around $833 Mint product free shipping $870 I know they have different looks. Best long term upside? Which way would you go?
The mintages are 48,000 for the bullion coin and and 8,800 for the proof. Obviously they are both still for sale so those numbers will go up. Based on that information alone I would lean toward the proof. But looking at the PCGS population report makes the decision even easier. PCGS has graded over 3,000 1/2 oz gold eagles in mint state and 96.6% of them received a grade of 70! So there is not going to be (or at least there should not be) much of a condition premium. Buy the proof.
Is the condition premium applicable to the number graded or the entire montage? The MS 70 is 96% of the 3,000 graded but only 6% of the mintage.
Remember that most people buying the bullion coins have no interest in coin collecting or the condition of the coins. They just want gold and they want gold eagles becaue the purity is guaranteed by the US government. But they aren't typically out there putting a bunch of marks on their coins either. Almost all of them will be very well preserved in safe deposit boxes or safes. The 96% 70 rate should give you a pretty good idea of what those other 45,000 coins would be graded if they were submitted in future years. Yes, some may have been pre-screened for defects so the percentage would likely be a little lower, but not that much lower.
