silver prices

Is silver going to get to $14.00 before xmas or maybe higher?

 

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With today's gain, not too far to go. $15 silver would make a nice xmas present.

 

I think it's a very high probability bet that silver will get to $14, to $15, and beyond. But nobody knows when it will happen. It is often easier to determine what will happen than when it will happen.

But it wouldn't be a bad idea to buy those silver eagles now instead of next year.

 

Undoubtedly, but the question is "Christmas of what year?"

 

stupid question, but do metal prices (both base and precious) fall after the christmas buying season?

I hope not, because I just bought an ASE for 13.44 off of ebay, and at the moment, the spot is $13.48. Only $1.96 more to go to break even (from shipping) for the silver content alone!

 

I have found that if you look over a period of many years, silver rises in the Fall/early Winter and drops in the Spring.
However, 2006 was not the norm.

 

Went into a coin shop today and asked the dealer how much he was giving for 1964 Kennedys for melt. He said he was paying $4.00 each I think that is a little low what do you think ?

 

Well, that is 8X face, I thought that it was closer to 9x.
Frank

 

I always look at www.coinflation.com for up to date values; it currently lists melt value of a 1964 half as $4.90 (i.e. 9.8 times face value).

Of course, not every buyer will offer you full melt value, and if you only have a few coins to sell you're stuck with the lower price, but in my experience you can sell junk silver on eBay for melt +/- a few percent, or if you have a larger quantity places like apmex.com (currently buying at 9.44 times face, in $1,000 face value increments, which is a lot!) or bulliondirect.com's nucleo exchange (currently people buying at 9.35 times face value in only $10 face value increments) can give you very close to melt value.
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I just got back from my dealer... I don't know what he's paying, but he's selling at $9.50 on the dollar face. So $4.75 for a half. Which is what I'm guessing he gets for shipping them out to melt.

For a dealer, $4 sounds about right. They need to pay the bills.

 

Very true. Last year, when silver was about $14.50, or something like that, I took a couple of my ounces to the coin dealer to see what he would give me for them. He told me after he had looked at the current price that he would give me 14 dollars an ounce, so I guess they do have to make a profit, (especially since I bought some of my silver from him at 8 dollars an ounce, so he is getting the bad end of the deal).

 

$4 isn't bad for a dealer price.

 

My dealer said that he would give $4 per half dollar---not bad since I got most of them from $2-$3 each....I'm thinking about trading in my whole set or hoard of Circulated Franklin halves---about 2 years ago I put together 2 complete sets of Cir. Franklins along with some extras--that is when a set sold for $99---he had one marked the other day $225 IIRC.

Speedy

 

Speedy:
Good luck on dumping the Franklins. But, I'd keep that 1955, at least.
By the way: IIRC?
Huh?
Frank

 

IIRC... I've been trying to figure that one out myself, but I think I just got it.

IIRC - If I Remember Correctly???

 

Thanks, that has been driving me crazy.
Not that it takes a lot -- to drive me crazy.

Frank

 

IIRC stans for If I remember (or recall) correctly!

And as for the 55----I may keep them but I'm thinking about just trying to find one with FBL.

Speedy

 

Woohoo! Got one right. I'll take Internet Acronyms for $1000, Alex.

 

Howdy,

Predicting the future is dicey at best, but thinkg are looking like $15.00 by Christmas and higher next year. Things could settle back a bit in the spring.

Reasoning:

Seasonality. 4th and 1st quarters are the best season for the precious metals somewhat due to christmas, but also cultural in India (mom's retirement and sister's dowry).

Macro factors:

China only legalized owning gold a couple of years back and with their booming economy there is a lot of new money chasing Bling. In India, they also have a booming economy and there are cultural reasons to buy gold.

China, OPEC and other int'l trading partners of the US that own a lot of dollars are starting to buy gold for diversification. Not really selling dollars as that would drive the price down, but slowly adding gold and other 'real stuff'. Hey, how many tents do you need full of dollars before you want something else? Besides with the denial of the purchase of conoco(?) by the chinese oil company AND the dubai port operation denial, our gov't essentially told the world that we're not willing to let them buy anything of value with all of our dollars that they hold. er, they're no longer redeemable for real stuff stateside.

Our twin deficits are starting to trash the dollar as our national fiscal house is in shambles. Normally, the Fed could raise rates to strengthen same, but cannot now due to slowing economy due to all their past rate hikes.

Inflation is being under-reported due to accounting methods (no conspiracy, just coincidence) such as the 20% housing portion of the CPI based upon Rental Rates rather than owned housing and the 50% of the basket subject to hedonic adjustments (if it's new and improved they can charge more and we won't count it even if you don't have a choice of the older unimproved version). However, due again to the slowing economy AND the offical numbers, the Fed cannot raise rates.

75 million baby boomers starting to retire and the cupboard is bare.

Seems to me some good arguements for a continuing bull market in gold and the other metals (historically commodity rallies normally last 15 years and this one is 5 years old).

Now how about gold vs. silver. Simply a much greater profit potential in silver than gold. During the Hunt Bros rally, silver went up 10 fold while gold doubled. This historical ratio of gold to silver is 1 to 15-20 and while we were in the high 60's earlier this year and are now down to 46, there's still a long way to go.

just the ravings of a silver bug.

peace,

rono

 

Anyone desiring to respond to Rono's comments should start a thread in the Politics, Religion and World Events Forum where such a discussion is appropriate. That way this thread won't have to be closed.