The future of rare coin collecting

A few observations.....

I think the slew of high quality counterfeits could kill the hobby. What happens if the fakes become so good you can't even tell the difference ? That is close to reality now. Everything of value will have to be in a slab unless it is bullion.

Not only are collectors fairly old and male, they are also White. Whites are also in decline %age wise. I've never seen a Black collector or dealer. I don't think recent immigrants will ever be collectors either.

 

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I agree fakes could kill it, and I am more pessimistic than you. What about high quality fake slabs? I think that is more of a danger. Since a lot of collectors know more about the slabs than the coins, the fake coins don't need to get better, (especially since the slab would make it harder to identify them as fakes), but the slabs do. Have a really high quality faker of slabs come onto the market with existing fake coins, and you will have PROBLEMS.

I do not agree about the second part. I have an african american friend who collects morgans, and I have created some asian coin collectors. Also, I have seen quite a few hispanic collectors lately. It may be European culture is more predisposed to accept coin collecting as normal, but to me its more a matter of education and outreach. This kind of outreach, (to middle aged men of other cultures), I think would be MUCH more successful than YN programs. I think it would be a heck of a good idea personally.

 

Grading coins not on condition but on what they'll fetch in the market already did that, don't you think?

 

I never went to a coin show as a kid, nor did I collect coins.

 

well I do.

 

good for you.
my point is , that just because you dont see alot of kids at a show, doesnt mean the hobby is doomed. Many collectors dont start until they are older

 

Agreed..

 

I'm a young coin collector and I would say that a lack of time and money is what primarily keeps me away from coin shows. Personally, I hope my peers remain oblivious to this hobby. More coins for me! :yes:

 

Coin collecting is so last generation. Credit card collecting is the new fad.

 

I always thought it was that GOLD coin collecting was the "hobby of kings", but still point taken.

Most coin collecting started during the renaissance with well to do nobility and clergy building cabinets of rare coins. The "man on the street" collecting pennies did not really happen in this country until the demise of the large cent. Yes, some did, but the large cent going away made the hobby more mainstream.

 

I thought debt was the favorite thing the current generation loved to collect.

 

Consumer debt is where it's at. But, the one with the most plastic wins.

 

Hey... I actually used to collect credit cards! Well... I would keep changing the design and they would keep sending me a new card for each design. Then, after about the 12th card, Discover sent me a message asking me to stop.

 

First off...you were in Florida. Did you really expect to see anyone under the age of 75? As for women, I don't know, maybe they were impatiently waiting in the car. The shows I attend in Vegas yearly have a wide mix...lots of younger people, as well as the usual old grumps. Quite a few women, most young for some reason. And there are always a hand full of children there, especially scout troups, and most seem to be not only trying to earn a badge, but also genuinely interested in coins. Maybe it's a geographical thing, I don't know, but the future seems bright in the Southwest as far as the continuation of the hobby.
Guy

 

LMAO, god forbid it cost them a few cents and made their customer happy.

 

I'll discuss the Middle Market collectors, here.

In the USA: are we discussing an Old White Person's hobby? That fewer and fewer young people are interested in? o.k. - so IT'S DYING. Face facts. It's irrelevant that there will always be SOMEONE collecting. What's important is the ratio of "collectors" spending $$ on coins. That percentage is shrinking, poorer, aging - and there's no replacement for every pensioned oldster croaking. Their collections will come to market and further depress prices. The Great American Coin Grift died in 2007.

Ergo, the market(value) is shrinking(dropping.) Coin shops have closed by the thousands in the last two decades, that's a canary-in-the-coal-mine. Most importantly LOOK AT PRICES, aggregate numbers don't lie. Coin values have been & continue to fall because the demand is declining not because more people know 'what its worth.' Chinese Counterfeits are just the latest big scam in a racket business and people aren't getting any stupider to that fact either.

Nothing bodes well for US coin collectors now so it makes sense to cherrypick & lowball Ag/Au numismatics from widows & heirs ... lots of collections will be dumped on a falling mkt for pennies on the dollar, for years.

 

I hate to say it, but I believe you're right. We're all screwed. Or rather, you are. Or at least the ones who care about how much their coins are worth and aren't just doing it for fun. I, thankfully, have not invested in numismatic coins. And now I never will. Or at least not until the market has bottomed, if that ever happens.

There's another factor here that is deadly for future coin prices: the impending cashless society that will befall us. Many (I would think most) people start coin collecting by looking through pocket change and collecting the years and mint marks. From there they move on to rare/valuable/"obsolete" coins that they can't find in circulation. No pocket change=no new coin collectors! Obviously that's an exaggeration, but I think I make my point. It's not just the lack of old white men we have to fear... it's the lack of ANYONE, of any race or gender, who has even seen a coin! The rarest coins will always have value, but everything else is doomed. What is expensive will be cheap in the future. What is cheap now will be bullion in the future. I kid you not- you will see wheat pennies melted down for their copper value because NO ONE CARES what a wheat penny is. Your collections are going straight into the furnace when you die. And your kids aren't getting much for them. Metal prices will be down too! Copper and silver are going to crash dramatically. Gold will languish in a death spiral until it is finally crushed under the weight of the ocean, if you catch my drift. Platinum is going to be mined in asteroids and cars will no longer require it. PMs, to the moon! No! PMs, FROM the moon.

I do truly wish numismatic coins were a good investment, but they're not. I'll just hold my money for now and buy a complete lincoln set for $100 (or the inflation adjusted equivalent thereof) in a couple decades. That is, if there's anyone left in the business of ruling out counterfeits, which will have long since flooded the market.

Just my 2 cents.

 

Oh well. Life sucks. Then you die.

 

And then your coins die