Earlier today I was remembering how 5-6 years ago there were 2 major jumps in value for specific coin types. One was Draped Bust half dimes, dimes, and quarters. The other was Seated Dollars. I have no clue why it happened, but in a matter of weeks, the greysheet values nearly doubled for these coins. So I have 2 questions: 1. Does anyone know how or why this happened? 2. What sleeper coin might be next?
After collecting for over 50 years I am convinced just like women's fashion and other items that change at a drop of a hat so does the coin market. Whats hot and whats not is fueled by $$$$ ...just today a friend here and I were talking about the 1893 O Morgan mintage 300,000......and how under priced it is as compared to other Morgan dates.
The obvious answer is that demand wakes up a sleeper coin, as some cadre in the marketplace label it as a sleeper and it catches on and spreads sort of like a contagion. I also think certain events like anniversaries can wake up a sleeper. For example, this November 22 will be the 50th anniversary of the assassination of JFK and 2014 will mark the 50th anniversary of the release of the Kennedy half dollar. This anniversary combined with increased rumors or the potential of a discontinuation or change in this series will certainly wake up the Kennedy half. TC
I guess I'm wondering most about how it happens. Did problem-free seated dollars start trading at a higher level at some ANA convention that year? Did some research uncover info that more of them were melted down than initially thought?
Usually I notice that an article is usually written in one of the trade mags. Don't know if there is any truth to the story but take the 20¢ piece. There was a time you could bearly give them away. Quietly someone bought them up and then wrote an article saying how hard they are to find. People start looking and can't find them, price goes up,
Many times a good book, a well written article, or similar will spur interest. What is weird about ancients is a hoard will spur prices higher. It should lower prices, but it seems seeing many coins on the market actually increases collector interest it seems. Best bet i know in numismatics seems to be to buy into a nice coin hoard then wait a few years for it to dissipate.
A lot of times speculation also wakes them up. One person sees a "sleeper" and starts to hoard. It attracts the attention of others and they start to hoard, thinking something is happening. Then it spreads like wildfire. However, most of the time it's just short lived hype as the only people demanding them are those same speculators and it fails to catch on with the rest of the collecting community, which is why many coins remain sleepers forever. Guy
ok look at the 1949 p and d quarters in ms66 and above (nice ones with chunky luster or toned nicely)- those are definitely sleepers - I say they will wake up gradually over the time - no milestone events or anything just higher bids at auctions. otoh there are sleepers out there that will definitely benefit from some specific event as those listed above (but those are really hard to predict).
Yes. It is typically demand that wakes up a sleeper whether the demand is from collectors or speculators. But this demand can build up for quite a long while until it is suddenly reflected in the price guides. Insiders know before the change that they have to pay premiums to the guide to get the coins from other insiders and after the increase insiders are trading them at a discount so the change is much smoother than it appears on paper. Some of this in is intentional on the parts of insiders and publishers to control and profit from the market but in most cases it's just the nature of the beast. We don't so much notice little changes until they've built up to a big change and because the publishers aren't always on the ball. Many of the modern prices are all wrong in the guides and foreign moderns might seem to be exploding exponentially year to year but in reality a few people know what some of these are worth and are collecting or trading them at prices dissimilar to catalog. 1954 Proof Sets from India haven't really increased 100 fold in the last few years because they were being sought before any changes in price occurred and now they also are trading in the collector community. They simply weren't trading hands at $15 a few years back. I have extreme doubt you could find a single Chinese aluminum coin from the mid-'50's at catalog anywhere in the world today. When they (probably) list far higher at some point in the future it won't really mean that they suddenly woke up so much as there is finally enough demand to actually entice a seller to part with an example. Sleeper coins simply don't trade now and when the guide is finally updated they trade again. Insiders know what to pay but the mass market is dependent on the guides. This is why it's so frustrating that Krause is so woefully out of date on many modern issues. This also fosters conditions where the coins flow out of the US back to the country of issue at greatly reduced prices.
I've long thought the old silver quarters would do extremely well from an influx of many collectors of the states issues. Modern collectors tend to prefer nice well made coins and if they carry this demand back into the silvers, which is possible since they exist in some quantity, then there will be a lot of new demand for nice MS-64 and higher Washingtons. I think this will be some time in the future yet but such things aren't really predictable. It seems like it will take significant maturation of demand in the new collectors but it might not. They might go straight to them or they might never really get around to them. But it's almost a given that there will be some spillover into the silver quarters. It might be too early to callthe whole series a sleeper but there are sleepers in the series certainly. The '40-D and '49 in better grades are interesting, for instance. I think some of the '30's common coins are underappreciated, probably.
I think most of the time, the actual precipitating event is auction results. I believe those price guides are at least loosely based on prices realized at the major auctions. If these coins start selling higher, for whatever reason, the price guides eventually adjust the price up.
