What USA Sleeper coin of 2012?

I guess the closest way I can sum it up is, my crystal ball is no better than yours or anyone else's lol... and buying coins on a wild guess that they may go up in the future isn't investing, it's gambling. Like many mutual fund prospecti say in their disclaimer, "past performance is not a guarantee of future growth." For me coin collecting is a hobby, not an investment, and I'll just buy what coins I like, not caring whether they go up in value or not. If we all could accurately predict which coins will go up in value and which ones won't, we'd all be rich. But hey if we knew which stocks would go up, what the price of gold will be in 10 years, and what the winning lottery numbers will be... anyway I think you get my point. There's too many factors you can't account for to make any prediction better than throwing darts at a dartboard. Sure you can try to see trends, but the problem is that any given coin is a unique case, and the fact the other coins with low mintages went up doesn't prove that any in 2012 will be the next big thing in a few years. But hey if you have a better crystal ball than mine and can 100% for sure answer the OP's question, go ahead and let us in on it OK lol?

And I'll end with this: "The advantage of having a pessimistic attitude is that you're always either being proven right, or pleasantly surprised."

 

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Lol... low mintage P & D ATBs... too bad there are no such things since they're minted in the hundreds of millions. The fact that everyone's hoarding them is a good sign that they won't go up in value, because everyone will have them. There's a reason why the 1950D Jefferson nickel, the rarest date in the series, is still only worth $20 to $25 even in uncirculated condition. Everyone saved them, so they're not hard to get.

If trends in coins show us anything, the coins that take off long term are the coins that people weren't buying when they first came out. S-mint ATBs will go up, sure... in the short term, but eventually they're just won't be any buyers left who want them and don't have them, and there's MILLIONS of them minted. THEY ARE NOT RARE, AND NEVER WILL BE. They're double issue price now because the hype is still there... but that will die off eventually, and eventually everyone who wants them will have them, and there won't be any more growth potential, and prices will plummet. This isn't a guess, I've seen it happen, with coins with far lower mintages than these S-minted ATBs. 2005 Marine Corps Dollar, for example; they were going for several times their issue price when the mint ran out, but now you can easily get one for about $70, less than twice its initial issue price 8 years ago. And they minted way less than a million of them. And yes, when collectors have piles of these S-minted ATBs that they held on to because they thought they'd be valuable... and the price plummets, because the supply exceeds the demand, because everyone who cared about owning them already bought them... yes, eventually they'll be forced to spend them as they'll eventually drop to about 25 cents each. Rare collectibles go up in value when people DON'T save them. You can cash in on the hype if you're quick about it. But if you think these will go up forever you're deluding yourself. How valuable are those Barr notes everyone saved? A coin minted in the millions only for the sake of collectors will NEVER be a rare collectible, by the very definition of the word "rare." They're already minting as many as anyone who cares about them are buying. There is zero long term growth potential there.

 

So, you aren't following these AtB's at all? Most to date were minted in the 20M's & 30M's, most lower than the Territories.

 

Hundreds of millions when you add up the year's mintages of the quarters, didn't mean the individual types, but my point still stands... 10's of millions is still too high to become valuable in the long term. (1955 Roosevelt dime, rarest regular issue in the series... 12 million minted, got one in MS66 for $12, less than the cost of grading the thing. So that quarter that 20 million was minted of? What do you think that will be worth in 50 years lol?)

I have my little ATB quarter album and saving one of each, and I incidentally have a proof of each one because I get a clad proof set every year (silver proof sets just feel too artificial for my taste). That's plenty for me and I don't care about silly gimmicks like S-minted business strikes or silver proofs, whether they'll go up significantly in value or not (as I've said many times on this board, coin collecting is a hobby for me, not an investment). Sometimes I got the S-minted business strikes from the mint because I just didn't have time/feel like going the the Denver mint's gift shop (where you can get as many ATB quarters as you want for face value, but they're all D's) just so I wouldn't have buy 2 rolls of quarters when I only wanted 1 individual quarter. I sell a few of the extras to friends and family who care, and just spend the rest unless I find any in the roll that are in decent enough condition to be worth saving (and so far I haven't; can tell you any of these better than MS65 may actually be a rarity lol but good luck finding them when you have to pay double face to even look for them). So far I haven't found a single one that even the loosest grading standards would call better than a 65 at best. The Mint just doesn't care to do any QC on these things apparently, but why should they bother when they can get people to pay double face value anyway, no matter how crappy they are lol...

There's millions of these things. Even the S-minted quarters being hyped up are minted at a million and a half each at least. There's not millions of people collecting them. I don't know how anyone looks at that and figures that means they'll be super valuable in the long run. The math just doesn't work. You want to believe that 2 + 2 will eventually equal 5 if you wait long enough, go ahead. I'm tired of trying to convince people it will only come out to 4 and will always only come out to 4. Believe what you like but I stand by my statement that the ATBs are a sucker's bet if you think hoarding them will make you rich in 10 years.

 

Dis them all you want, but I believe that 2012 P, D and S mint
ATBs in MS68 and MS69 will be in high demand and will appreciate.

 

What point? You don't add up the mintages, each quarter is a different type that stands on it's own - especially for a series that can be completed by many, at a reasonable price. Now, for a 19th century coin, that's collected primarily as a "type" coin, you many want to add up the mintages between years.

 

Crystal ball or not...I can't imagine no one wanting these beauties in thirty years?

 

Oh I'm sure they will, if they exist. You check the pop reports lately? I have.

ANACS: no 2012 has graded higher than 67 as of yet.
PCGS: Only 2 have graded 69, only about 40 have graded 68. The 2 that graded 69 aren't S-minted btw.
NGC: Can't tell you, the pop reports are available to members only.
ICG: Seriously, who cares, how are they even still in business.

Doesn't invalidate my point; it in fact reinforces it. Sure the ones in high condition will go up, because of how rare they are. The vast majority of them, the MILLIONS that are 67 or worse, will not, over the long term, because they are not rare.

 

My point is even a mintage of 20 million is way too high to ever become valuable. Even the gimmicky S-mints with 1.5 million because they're only sold to collectors, the only ones who care about them (this is about as many Kennedy halves that are minted each year and how valuable are they?). You think you have a trump card there but it's just the "rules for draw and stud poker" card you were supposed to take out of the deck.

 

Anyone who can afford those and wants them probably already has them now. Based on Mint sales figures, that's not very many people.

In 30 years we're all 30 years older if we're not dead. Your heirs will be happy to sell those for what they're worth then I'm sure but how does that benefit you?

The OP was asking 5-10 years btw. If those things go up much in that time frame it will only be because of the price of gold.

But hey, they look nice, you should be happy to own them because they're nice coins, not because of what they might be worth in 30 years.

 

You’re comparing apples & oranges, AtB’s are not Kennedy’s - even though at the current Kennedy mintages, they may have potential if/when the series takes off again. The only way I agree with your analysis of the 2012 S-Mints is if interest in AtB’s doesn’t continue to grow and tanks - I don’t see that happening. My customers have found 4 or 5 in circulation and are buying the other 30 or 31 they don’t have, as well as folders, albums, maps & books.

 

So the OP asks the question..."In 5-10 years, what will be the Sleeper coin of 2012". He doesn't actually provide definition of "sleeper coin", but I think most folks would take that to mean the coin that will appreciate the most over that period.

LostDutchman offered an opinion that the Alice Paul First Spouse coin would be a likely candidate. Of course, as you point out, none of us has a crystal ball so we can't say with certainty which opinion will prevail...it's just an educated guess base on past observations.

The fact that all US minted gold coins with mintages less than 5,000 have done quite well "suggests" that US Minted gold coins with mintages less than 2,000 should do even better. Will that time frame be in 5-10 years? ...who knows? ...but the "probability" favors a nice appreciation once the series is complete. Series tend to gain in popularity once they are complete.

Your argument that the demand for these coins will never increase and they are simply a passing fad like "Beanie Babies"...doesn't seem quite right to me.

 

Tends to is not a guarantee. All US minted gold coins with mintages less than 5000 have done quite well so far (you left that important part out) suggests the trend may continue. These are all at best educated guesses based on similar coins. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Well that's just my guess, but your belief to the contrary is just as much of a guess too (and I never said "never," just that it wouldn't last over the long term. Even fads can make you money as long as you cash out before the hype dies, but that's very risky). We'll have to wait a few years before we know which one of us is right. For every coin you point to as an example of a coin that's gone up in value because of increased demand, I can find at least one counter-example where a coin of about equal rarity is still not valuable after even 50+ years because the demand never spiked and/or the supply was too high relative to demand. Want to bet your money that you're right, go ahead, but that's gambling, not investing. The gold coins will be worth at least what the gold they contain is worth so you have that much going for you at least. The ATBs, I'm just not seeing it. Pessimists rarely become rich but they rarely go broke either; just keep that in mind. Like I said it's just gambling, and as long as you don't bet more than you can afford to lose, you're not too bad off if you're wrong.

 

:dead-horse:

 

I think it will be the nickel, because they are probably going to quit making them. They are the only change worth their metal value left in circulation, so I'm sure they will be worth more when the value of the dollar goes down.

 

My theory is that the rarity drives up the price, and then the high price actually generates more demand. There are people who flip through the Red Book and see that Jackie Robinson uncirculated listed for $4000 and then they want it. They want it because other people want it.

Some of the old baseball cards are good evidence of this. There isn't a person alive who saw Honus Wagner play, so why would someone want his baseball card? And why would they pay $1 million for it? Because it is rare and they want bragging rights.

Back to the original question: I convinced my wife that we should buy a set of the 2012 gold eagle proofs with our "investment" money since my hobby budget does not allow for that sort of purchase. I knew almost for certain that 2012 would be the lowest mintage since the series started in 1986, so it has good appreciation potential as a collectible. It also has the bullion value of the gold protecting the downside.

It was my first gold coin purchase.

 

I think we'll look back and see 2012 as a great year to hoard some of the coins.

S-Mint quarters - first year of issue, unexpected sell out, interest in the series should grow as they start producing 100M+ circulation quarters again. I don't believe they will be reduced to face value.

Silver Eagles - a few low mintage varieties there (San Fran set and the West point burnished). The ASE collector base is growing, as shown by the sales of 2013 bullion, and those folks will eventually look for the rarer varieties.

There are plenty of others. Mint sales figures show overwhelming pessimism. Folks are ignoring the obvious signs for potential future gains; they are even arguing that those signs (which worked in the past) are no longer valid. Things have a way of repeating themselves.

 

The ATB hockey pucks are getting hotter. Of course, the sellout of the Hawaii one in 2012 certainly did not hurt--I am sure that the 5 oz "collectors" ATB coins will be very low mintage, and become strong sleepers.

 

I think you should thank your wife for listening to you as I believe someday she will thank you for that suggestion.

Lack