I have been trying to figure a few things about rarity, key date and pricing. My thoughts so far our Key date of a series is not always the rarest. the lowest mintage is not always the rarest. 1916 D Dime is not rare but very exspensive 1932 D & S quarter are not rare either There are many coins in the Barber series that are rarer than the above but are cheaper.
Exactly Chris, I have an exceptionally rare Civil War store card that is pegged at an R-9, which simply means there are only 3-5 examples in existence. However, it's only a $1000-$1500 coin. A 1913 Liberty Nickel has the same quantities, but they're worth millions because of the market demand and the cool story that goes along with it.
I guess I put my first thoughts in here...simply put I think it's supply and demand. I have a 32-d quarter and it's got a mintage of over 400k. I have recently put together a complete type set of Newfoundland silver coins- many with mintages close to 1/10th that of the 32-d, also the Newfoundland coins were HEAVILY circulated there due to a significant shortage of coins at the time, resulting in a lower survivorship. All this being the case, you can still find nice deals on the relatively rare Newfoundland coins because let's face it- they aren't collected as much- supply and demand. That or there is some big conspiracy to keep the US coins at outrageous prices! Another factor is going to be condition rarity, something I'm sure others will expand upon. I think there is some equation that will eventually help you solve the answer- it's just that one of the variables has to do with humans and their hobbies...a definite unknown variable!
Medoraman, pretty much nailed it. It's more about demand for the popular series. If people collected the barber series like mercs or walkers, you would see how scarce nice coins are in that series. Luckily people don't collect them like that. And until my set is complete I hope it stays that way.
Dealing with us coins,I think mintages dont always reflect survival rates. So shouldnt we look at survival rates as a better guage of rarity
Also, in my short time collecting Barber halves there seem to be some dates considered rare, but are readily availble in all grades at a hefty premium. There are other dates that seem to be cheaper, but are much scarcer.
When you say readily available, are you talking all conditions or in problem free condition. There are many dates in the series that are conditional rarities. For instance the 1904-S. I can buy them all day in VG. F they are quite a bit tougher. VF through MS, good luck. Same with the 93-S. Now flip that. Take the 1892-P. In MS, it's the highest pop in the set. There are oodles of MS 92-P's. Try to find them in problem free F-VF. Same goes with the 13, 14, & 15P. They can be a bugger in VF/XF. But their values carry down to VG. But they are common as dirt in that grade. Even in my experience, they are decently available in F. I could talk for hours. TomB also has loads of experience with Barbers. A heck of a lot more than me.
I was talking about in all conditions. There seems to be alot more 1915 P in lower grades availble, then 1894 O or 1896O in lower grades.
I'll have to disagree with you regarding all Barber halves being readily available in all grades. Most are ubiquitous in the lowest grades (FA2-G6) and can be found with a certain frequency in the highest grades (MS60-MS64), but many coins are tough as all get out in the mid-grades (VF20-AU50). If you can readily find attractive, problem-free Ch VF through Ch AU coins from the 1893-S, 1904-S and a host of other issues then you have a supply that no one else knows about. Please note that I realize the same handful of coins are listed on eBay over and over so these really do not count as multiples.
Conditional rarity is just what it says. A coin in a certain condition gains extra value because of rarity. for an example I'll use the 1962-d franklin half dollar. At MS64 it is fairly common and sells in the $20 range, add in fbl (full bell lines) and it hops up to $30. The ms65 starts in the 30-40 range then with fbl jumps to $70. there are about 1000 MS65s but only a couple hundred have fbl. Finaly at MS66 it jumps with regular being $500ish and with FBL over $1000. Here are the pcgs "numbers" for this coin. Not always the most accurate for pricing but gives you a good idea. as there are only about 500 of these coins in MS65 or better, anything MS66 or higher is a conditional rarity .....................................................................12............40...........55........... 60......... 62........... 63............ 64.......... 65........... 66 [TABLE="width: 100%"] [TR="class: blue-bg"] 6683 Shop1962-D MS + ▲11 - ▲11 - ▲12 12 14 - ▲15 15 16 ▲17 22 42 115 275 1,350 - - - [/TR] [TR="class: light-blue-bg"] 86683 Shop1962-D FBL + - - - - - - 22 - 25 26 30 38 70 135 500 900 8,500 - - - [/TR] [/TABLE]
The term conditional rarity never really came to be used much until people started describing high grade modern coins as being "rare". And that only came to be in the last 10-15 years. Skeptics met those claims of rarity by saying that the coins were not rare at all since the coins existed in the hundreds of millions or even billions, that they were merely conditional rarities. And that since there were so many of the coins out there, that many, many more of them might be submitted and graded at some point in the future thus rendering those so called "rare" coin in high grades into common coins instead of "rare" coins. This kind of gave the term conditional rarity a bad reputation if you will, a negative connotation. Meaning that just because a coin was a conditional rarity that didn't really make it worth anything or make it rare at all. But what people seem to forget is that coins with conditional rarity have been with us for as long as coin collecting has existed. All coins have examples of conditional rarities, not just modern coins. But in years past the term was never used, never even really thought of. In years past nobody would bat an eye if you said you had an MS67 or MS68 Morgan. They would say - WOW ! - and just ooooooh and ahhhhhh over the coin and tell you how lucky you were to own such a coin. It didn't matter to them that there were several hundred thousand examples of the very same coin graded MS63, 64, or even 65. In other words that 67, 68 Morgan was in actuality nothing more than a conditional rarity. In that regard the Morgan was no different at all from the MS68 State Quarter. But tell somebody you had an MS68 State Quarter and they'd look at you say - so what, it's a conditional rarity - and roll their eyes as if it didn't matter at all. Do you see what I mean ?
