I've been thinking about this for sometime and have been watching the market for awhile but thought that I would post some of my reasons on why I think that the market is on a downward hill. Some of ya'll will hate me for posting this :whistle: and some will agree with my thoughts! The coin market has been on an UP for along time--longer than most thought it would be up and really longer than the market normaly stays up. The market works just like anything else and has up and down times---the trick to coins is knowing when its going up and when its coming down---no one really knows but some can make a good guess by study of prices and trends...I'm not saying that I'm good at this----far from it---but I will say that I found something that didn't shock me! Here is just a few prices and dates you can look at....all taken from Heritage....since ya'll don't want to take all night reading this I'll just pick 2 coins for a close up.......all will be graded by TPG's...I dont' know if any of these have Varieties or such--the grade given is the one given by the grading company--- There are alot more out there with the same thing going on---these are just a few that really show it pretty good In 2001 an 1831 Large Cent graded XF40 sold for $76 In 2003 an 1831 Large Cent graded XF40 sold for $82 In 2005 an 1831 Large Cent graded XF40 sold for $126.50 In JAN of 2006 an 1831 Large Cent graded XF40 sold for $431.25---This one was in an collection and sold for higher....because of the name.. In MARCH of 2006 an 1831 Large Cent graded XF40 sold for $92 In JUNE of 2006 an 1831 Large Cent graded XF40 sold for $60 And about a month earlier one sold for $42 It seems to me that by this coin the market for it hit its high in early 2006.... On to another coin.... In 1993 an 1926-S Nickel in VF20 sold for $154 In 1994 an 1926-S Nickel in VF20 sold for $198 In 1999 an 1926-S Nickel in VF20 sold for $242 In 2000 an 1926-S Nickel in VF20 sold for $125 In 2001 an 1926-S Nickel in VF20 sold for $322 In 2003 an 1926-S Nickel in VF20 sold for $391 In 2004 an 1926-S Nickel in VF20 sold for $247 In 2006 an 1926-S Nickel in VF20 sold for $287 Notes about this coin---the market for it has been up and down for along time--sometimes just from month to month the prices would go up a few hundred---I myself just sold one to DLRC for $250 To look at this coin the market would look like its still up in one way---but IMHO its still pretty much going down--- The same thing as the Nickel is happening to the 1950 Proof Franklins---in the grade PF66---the market has been up and down---in 1993 you could get one for over $550--but now its more around $410....now in the years inbetween 95 and 06 the prices have been up and down. I guess all of this above is a bunch of pieces that don't really fit together----what I'm trying to show is that the market seems to me to be taking a dip---maybe going down---while on some coins like the nickel it looks like its pretty much the same the market has been pretty hard on buyers and sellers of the coin---when that happens IMHO the market isn't really stable..when it ain't stable it ain't a good thing. Again---this isn't much--take it with a grain of salt--I'm following my idea and backing off buying alot of coins---not that I'm in coins to make money but I don't want to be one that buys a coin one day and the next day its tons cheaper---I'm willing to play the game! I am looking for an area in the hobby where the market really hasn't taken off---the error market has just taken off in the last few years---the area of Patterns has been always kindof hot in one way... but there aren't many buyers so its kindof dull and not much going on--- There are many areas of coins in the market that haven't gotten hot yet---and if I find it that might be my new area of collecting till the rest of the market gets back on its feet again.... Now that I've typed my fingers to the bone and ya'll are wondering just why I posted this I'm going to quit! Speedy
Hey Speedster, Nice write ! Like most markest it has a cyclic structure to it. The observations you make are valid and it may be that the market is just taking a much needed breather. Based on economic data and the manipulation of the dollar across the world governments..I expect to see the fluxuations. Look at the down turn as a buy indicator and pick up some good deals... Stay well and good hunting... RickieB
Hey Rickie I did contact a guy that has a nice 1831 Large Cent and offer to take it off his hand....I don't know what he will say becasue he wanted to trade it for another Large Cent but I thougth maybe I could talk him into selling it. With that coin down so much I wouldn't mind buying one in AU----I can't believe that one sold in JAN for over $400 and one sold a few months back for only $40...that is pretty funny in one way. Speedy
Great analysis. Very thought-provoking. The variations in the 1831 large cent pricing are almost frightening over that short of a timeframe. Anything that is selling for a price lower than it was five years ago probably isn't overpriced.
Were did you get the prices - heritage? Second did you look at all the coins? Sometimes eye appeal will make a difference in the prices. And then to top it off sometimes you just get lucky on a bid - I know on one of my proof silver eagles(PCGS PR69DCAM) it was consistently selling for over 210 on Ebay at that time. I think I bid a 171.50 on every coin that went on the auction block and I did eventually win one. At that time most of the auctions close somewhere between 200 and 230. I did the samething for some of the others - kept bidding about 60% to 80% of what they were going for and eventually I would win. I call it lucky or maybe it really is part of this trend you mentioned. And I still need that dang 1995W coin. If somebody has a spare fell free to send it to me - and hey I got three free gradings at PCGS because of the registry set.
Hey Mark Yes all of the coins were sold on Heritage---I didn't look at the coins---if the coin was graded by a TPG then that was all I looked at. While you are right that eye appeal can make the price go up in I think that where that would come into the big photo more is in MS and PF grades--- While you may get lucky I doubt that Heritage has many coins that it happens to---they have millions of bidders and people watch their items day and night---they also put reserves. Speedy
I decided that I would go back and take a look at the one that sold for over $400----while almost everyone in the list above seems to have problems--cleaned or such...the one that sold for $400 was from the Jules Reiver therefor making the price go up... Still if we take this one out the price drop is a pretty good drop....while eye appeal and many things go into the price I understand that when price guides are put together they get listing of prices of coins that sold through out that time---they don't look at photos and such and make a guide that many people go by---therefor every price guide will affect the market somehow. I'm willing to say that the market is taking a break---for how long I can't say---and how much of a break I can't say----but I've said it many times---what goes up comes down.. Speedy
I'm hoping the internet dealers lower their prices too. So far they seem to be sticking to their guns on the morgan and peace dollars. I haven't noticed any significant price reductions. Hopefully, they aren't selling any and will have to cave on the prices soon.
Thanks for the write up speedy! The other day my dealer said that the market was starting to soften, he has been a dealer about as long as I have been walking... I am still waiting for the commems to drop! (I don;t think they will though) In David Bowers latest coin investing book (a good read by the way) he actually thinks that a lot of coin sectors are already in a "slump" and that the areas of the market that are "to hot" are the super high grade coins (across all types) I highly recommend his book: "The Expert's Guide to Collecting and Investing in Rare Coins" It has a great study of the coin market, all the way back to the beginning of the united states, and really illustrates trends well. It is also a wealth of great numismatic information, I really enjoyed it. It is definatly not one of the "get rich quick in coins" books i have seen before...
I've seen it but never have gotten it--I guess I had better do that soon! One of our members here on CoinTalk helped him with the book and a photo of her and her son are in the book! TCT..... LOL While I hope I'm wrong---I used to think that if the coin market would go down it would just be great---then someone said that if the coin market goes down think of what else might go down-- Speedy
