Collection of Morgans

Saw an ad on Craigslist. Offered $1300, and waiting for a response. Wondering what this collections is really worth. Responses appreciated very much! I'm a newbie! All slabbed by NGC. I estimated the collection to be worth $1600 based on Ebay prices, but what do i know... Ebay prices vary hugely!

Morgan Silver Dollar 1879 S MS65
Morgan Silver Dollar 1885 O MS65
Morgan Silver Dollar 1887 MS65
Morgan Silver Dollar 1921 D MS65
Morgan Silver Dollar 1881 S MS 64 PL
Morgan Silver Dollar 1878 S MS 64 PL
Morgan Silver Dollar 1879 S MS 64 PL
Morgan Silver Dollar 1882 S MS 64 PL
Morgan Silver Dollar 1880 S MS 64 PL
Morgan Silver Dollar 1878 MS 64 - This one is a 7TF Rev'79
Morgan Silver Dollar 1881 S MS 64
Morgan Silver Dollar 1883 O MS 64
Morgan Silver Dollar 1885 MS 64

 

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So you offered $100./ per coin. I like round-numbers (for stuff I don't know precisely) and bulk-purchases, too. I suppose your offer may have been generous to a (presumably) depressed buyer's mkt. I doubt a dealer would offer that much, unless he knew he'd sell one or two of those coins for ALOT more than $150. I have NO IDEA the local market (competing demand: amateur), seller's desperation, etc. It is CL, after all: I'd be very careful with any purchase over ~$400.

fwiw, although I do not accept the 'inflated values of coin-marketeers' it can still be useful to (1) look at something like this:
http://www.numismedia.com/fmv/pricesms/mordlrpl/prices61.shtml

Then (2) check eBay low-bids for the rarer dates in same condition, Completed Auctions.

 

Thanks Juan. I looked at Ebay and came up with a value around 1900, but Ebay prices are inflated (not as much as numismedia though). I noticed that bullion on Ebay sells for more than at APMEX...

The 7TF Rev 79 is worth around $400 just by itself.... And all of the coins come in nice display boxes. I've seen these sell in display boxes at HSN. For 2x what they normally sell for.

Also wondering if I made any mistake in valuing this stuff at 1900...

 

o.k., I did a quick & dirty calc (because I already had a spreadsheet for Morgans) - excluding the "1878 MS 64;7TF Rev'79" (let's say $400.) - $94. per coin for PL Morgans.
These are NOT all PL, btw! What's the premium on slabbed PL Morgans - subtract that also.

My (admittedly unprofessional) guess? A local dealer pays ~35-50% less for this collection, say ~USD$ 650. to USD$ 800. max. Why? Because merchants in resale & trade collectibles will figure healthy margins for expenses & profit: they generally Bid at DEEP DISCOUNT to whatever so-called "fair value" is published. IME.

I suppose your offer was generous & fair. I don't know about the 'worth $1,900 on eBay' estimate of yours (are you factoring the 15% Seller loses to eBay/PayPal?) And again: no idea what the local market might offer otherwise.

 

You didn't say what the seller was asking for these. Did he post a price in his listing? Actually, I think $1400 might not get it.

Chris

 

A Fair Price?

I personally believe the lot which has slabbed PL coins of ~GEM condition is fairly priced at your offer of $1300. I would have offered $1200 sight unseen. :thumb:

 

The offer of $1,300 is a lot if this is a sight-unseen purchase where you are committed to buy if the seller accepts.

 

Seller asked for $2500 OBO. Just got a response. "$1400 cash and you've got a deal". Ebay selling prices not including shipping, and on the lower end (from August, it looks like prices have gone up in the past 2 months) puts this collection at $1900.

He posted pics and the condition looks excellent. The display cases are pristine! I just bought a few slabbed morgans recently and can't stop staring at them! They're so beautiful. I'm very inclined to accept.

 

Aside from the 1879-S NGC MS64PL, I have been able to find every coin on this list on the ebay completed sales archive and the majority, if not all, have been from October and November. The total net to the seller, ignoring shipping, is about $1,400 for all the coins except the 1879-S.

 

For those kind of coins $100 a coin is quite fair. There are a few worth more, and a couple worth less than that, but it would probably average around $1800-2000. Remember, DMPLs and really nice PLs often get much higher prices than price guide, especially nice ones. Hard to see, without seeing pictures of the coins, but assuming average to above average eye appeal, your offer is good.

 

1) If low-sale completed auctions are, in fact, "the market" you don't want to pick a high-range number for any estimate. Mid-Low completed auctions only (ignore BIN, 0 bids, etc.)

2) Remember ALWAYS that eBay Sellers must pay s/h AND eBay & PayPal take ~15% : a Sale at $100., Seller nets $85. Factor that, and discount CL bids accordingly.

3) Likewise, whatever is still not even "worth" the eBay price. Seriously doubt any professional dealer would pay over $1k here, unless factoring charity or an existing relationship.

4) Not at all surprised the Seller loves your offer: stick to it! You're fair & generous, just DON'T GET HUSTLED.

My two cents: we're still in the deflationary downdraft for Boomers' collectibles... generally speaking, there will be better buying opportunities ahead. Particularly if Silver drops -25% in the next 6 months or so! Conservative estimates in volatile mkts, sensibly.

 

Here's what I don't understand about this ad, why would you not put photos on there if you're asking that kind of money? I know the dates and grades tell part of the tale. If it were just me, I would at least show some photos to help sell the lot and potentially make more money.

 

He did post pics. I just didn't think they mattered since they're all graded...

 

Well, those pics wouldn't help me much...I'd want to see close-ups of each coin, especially when depending on the PL to make 64s worth $100-ish each. But if you have plenty of cash and want to go for it, great! Let us know what you think when you get 'em!

ETA: sorry, I didn't pick up on the CL sale. If you can see them in a safe location, do that, and make the deal if they look good! As a newbie, you may wish to look at several PLs online or at a LCS. That would be the MAIN issue for me, as PLs either look good or they don't, to me anyhow.

 

Pictures Aren't Necessary On Craigslist

I believe the OP stated that he'd received photos of all coins from the seller. Unlike eBay and the other internet sights, photos aren't necessary on craigslist, as potential buyers can view the coins in a secure private location if they have any concerns.

On the average, I sell thousands of dollars worth PM coins per week on craigslist, just by describing the coins accurately, and offering photos if desired. Buyers don't want to see images, just the product in their hands. I've never had a request for a photo, but have met hundreds of buyers. I've never even had one walk away without that which they traveled to acquire. I've sold more than one 5 figure dollar amount lot without posting a photo. My Guarantee by thousands of positive feedback availability, extraordinary below Grey Sheet pricing, TPG certification, repurchase agreement, virtually immediate delivery, the most competitive continuous posts for diverse large volume quality PM coins, and "sightseen" capability negates the need for images.

I found the large volume buyers on craigslist to be usually well informed, have done their "homework", visited local "dealers", have purchased from the internet, are realistic, etc.. Most "high buck" item sellers on craigslist are also generally well informed, realizing the various options for selling their wares. They generally just ignore the B.S. about "dealers" only paying half of what they are asking, and send those buyers elsewhere. Just My Experience from years of selling on craigslist. :thumb:

 

if you like them after you look live just buy them, the price is fair.

 

His offer is well below the NGC/Numismedia prices listed for each coin, the bulk of which are listed in that guide at around $165.

 

I would have though 1200 to be around wholesale on those. The only coin I would have to look up would be the rev of 79.

 

imrich-
Thanks for your very informative post! I'd like to know more about this niche area of CL - is there a CoinTalk thread already, or could you please elaborate?

From a high-ticket seller, that's a gratuitously self-serving comment if ever there was one. As grandma warned: 'he would say that' right? Case-in-point: the Ask here was $2,500. The fact this operator leapt at 'Best Offer' $1,400. proves otherwise. As always, caveat emptor.

And here's the perfect example where a solid relationship with an informed LCS can help. ASK THEM 'what its worth' to pro Buyers. If they value your business and like you, they'll help & give you THE NUMBER you seek.

I have a question: why would any collector "want" to buy both '1879 S MS64 PL' and '1879 S MS65' ? I can grasp the concept of buying different varietals or rarer duplicates, but buying redundant 'very common date' Morgans? So I suppose that two (2) coins (say, ~12% of the bulk purchase) are superfluous, left to sell or trade at a possible or likely loss, later. That discounts the collection slightly, IMO.

http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/NumismediaPrice-History.aspx?c=17092&g=65
http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/NumismediaPrice-History.aspx?c=17093&g=64
http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/7093?redir=t

That last link is marginally informative. The "Price Guide" is at least ~20% overvalued to mkt, but I also see ebay auctions for as little as 89% - 122% over Spot (at intrinsic: $66 @ 27.81) for "1879S MS64 PL". It appears the coinflator PCGS site isn't including 'low auctions, Sold' now eh? LOL "and they would do that" too.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1879-S-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS64-Proof-Like-GEM-BU-/190734649247

To win common date Morgan auctions for the ~MS64 PL grade, a max bid 150% premium over spot (@intrinsic) looks like a fair/successful metric for eBay or Teletrade wins. For CL, net 15% accordingly.
Liekwise, "Price Guide" rates look extravagant or decidely poor-value for value-investors.

I'd replace my 'round guess' above with a fair price estimate of $1,225. = 12x (115% POS @ $32.16) = $ 76.83/per + $300 for the rare date 7TF Rev'79 .... so $1,300 (OP's offer) remains fair at the moment, without any consideration for the POS downside.

Silver is more volatile than Gold. Because I suppose a -15% retrace in Au (10/4/2012) is a distinct possibility, a -25% downside for Ag (POS $34.71> $26.) must be assumed. Knowing that risk, do you lower your bid? Each to his/her own.

 

I love the 79-S, the most I had at once was 17 or so. I had toned, DMPL, PL, one sided DMPL, Redfield, GSA, you name it. Sometimes when you find a coin you like, you keep going.