I know that it is very difficult to price National Bank Notes, but I recently came across a note that I am considering. It's a 1929T1 $10 note and there are 8 known to exist and this is a known note. It would probably grade in the 10-12 range. The note is from a city that I am collecting...but my collection currently consists of 1 note. Now, the history on this note shows that in 2008 it sold for $460 and in 2009 it sold for $316.75. My understanding is the market for paper currency peaked in the 2007-2008 area and then began to decline. Is that correct? I found this note online for sale for $392 which seems high to me. I know that there are 8 known to exist...which doesn't seem like a lot...but it is the most common note for this particular national bank. It is being sold by an online dealer that I have never dealt with before. I'm tempted to make an offer and see what they say. Any advice...how much would you offer?
The price trends are descending lately, but there are some areas of Nationals that I collect that are pretty locked in. I myself currently collect Nats from three locations, one of them is very tight with about 20 known notes and very few coming into the market and firm prices - I own unreported notes that I won't report(some of us are picky about that). The other one has 76 reported small sized and they are for sale all the time. I own a decent percentage of the reported notes because I have even collected them by signatures, T1 and T2. The prices on those notes are soft, good for me as an accumulator, but not if I want to sell. Another location I collect from has lots of T1 and T2 and prices are also soft. In the first example when items do come to auction they sell well, four figures even.
There was definitely a dip in 2009, but I am seeing a definite upswing in 2012 for currency in general. I've seen closing auction prices growing at a substantial rate for notes I own, and even auctioneer's estimates are going up. Due to the large number of banks from the national series, the closing price is mostly driven by bidding wars between a small number of buyers. It's hard to plot the trend on a note with only 20 known, so it's hard to say that the $316.75 price in 2009 was due a downward trend in market values. It's definitely possible that the 2008 sale at $460 was simply driven by two enthusiastic buyers. $392 doesn't seem very high considering an auction close in 2009 at $316.75. Then again you are dealing with a retailer and not an auction. I would make the seller an offer at the price that the last one sold for, reference that sale and see where that goes. See if you can find what that seller bought the note for. Track & Price is great for auction records. Then you'll know exactly what you can haggle for.
