Determining fair price

Hey all,

So as I go deeper into buying more single coins, what price guide can I use to determine if I'm getting a decent or fair price for the coin and grade I'm buying? Is Numismedia accurate or should I be comparing dealer prices to something else?

Thanks in advance.

 

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To get a rough estimate on around what the price might be i use my 2013 red book, but the day it comes out its already outdated. I also like to check ebay to see what they are going for in the market.

 

I wouldn't rely on any annually published guide as the prices listed in them are outdated by the time the guide is released.

Grey Sheet, or the Coin Dealer's Newsletter, comes out monthly and has an updated Bid and Ask guide; however, to see what items are selling for, I would search completed sales at Heritage, TeleTrade, and eBay.

Anyone can ask anything they want for a coin, but what the coin actually sells for is a better idea of realized prices.

 

Thanks all. These reactions are kinda what I thought I'd get. I just wanted to see if I was on the right track with this.

 

What works for me is to focus on just one coin at a time using numismedia, Heritage, online sellers, eBay, Red Book, Coin Values, ect to get a ballpark value on a coin. Then look at as many examples as possible to find the coin that I like the most, comparing quality and price.

As Doug said every coin, even in the same grade is different. For a recent example, I wanted a $10 Indian no motto in au58. I found 3 locally, two were priced at $950 but had middling luster, noticeable rub a d quite a few marks and hits. The third was more money-$1100- but has booming luster, rub that you need a glass to see and very few marks.
In other words, a coin that at first blush looks like a ms64. Well worth the premium in my opinion. How much premium is too much? That's up to you. For me I draw the line at about 20-30%. Anymore, I prefer to save my money for when the big coin show comes to town because there will be many examples to choose from at many different prices.

 

Venue and seller make a difference too, especially when looking at ebay completed items. Sellers who rely on whoever happens to be looking the week their coin is listed generally get lower prices than those that have a long history and client list for the coins they sell.

 

I've never really thought about this too much. I know for many thats hard to believe, but as Doug said, there is no reliable source to use. Basically, when I'm looking for a coin, I've usually spent time looking at many different examples, pieces that have sold, those that haven't,different grades, eye appeal and what not. Then I base how hard it is to find and when the next opportunity to buy one might be, and thats what I base a price on. A coin, for example, may be common as far as mintage numbers are concerned, and book low in price guides, but may only come up for sale a half dozen times per year anywhere, making the real world pricing anything but common. Too many factors like that to consider, which makes any price list completely worthless.
Guy

 

Look up how the red book comes up with their listed values, and you will see that other than for metal prices, the problem has little (if anything) to do with being "outdated".

As for the CDN (graysheet), if you are going to use it as your reference, don't automatically expect every dealer to sell every listed type at or even near ask. For averages examples listed in the weekly, or even monthly editions, it's a good ballpark reference, but once you get into some of the quarterly supplement coins, it's even more important to know the market for whichever series (if any) interests you. With certain coins, expecting to be able to buy decent, problem-free material at ask would be an exercise in futility.

Point is that all price guides are just that.... guides. Take from them what you can, and use them to your advantage, but don't use them as the deciding factor in if you're getting a "good deal" or not. It is also worth noting that many who place great importance on getting a deal, especially without truly knowing what they are doing, often lose in the end. A low price is not everything.

 

I think that it might depend on the coin in question as well. For instance, the Redbook IHC prices seem too high and numismedia seems on the low side. I always use the lowest price guide when bidding on Ebay or shopping for coin of course. Redbook does give you a perspective on what coins are worth more than others and if a coin is priced using the Redbook, you may want to walk away unless the coin is choice.

 

There could be other factors as well. According to Ebay's documentation, If the auction ends at a weird time and the auction is short, you may get a lower price. I made this mistake. I also got some deals I thought because the auction ended on a holiday.

 

Uh...my Red Book is 1974.

 

This thread made me think. I am a sporadic collector, so when I go to buy most coins, I will have only a rough idea of how much they are worth. If I were hunting for a particular coin, I would probably depend on completed prices on e-bay, taking into account that people even less knowledgeable (if that is possible) than I are shopping there. I also look at e-bay prices on particular coins in the Buy Now headings. What it boils down to is what it looks like in-hand and how much you want it.

 

I think the ultimate boils down too, is what it's worth to you

 

I like using the CDN supplemented with completed eBay listings. In the end though, what you can actually buy/sell the coin for is the true value. A good example would be the 1921 Peace dollar in VG. Greysheet Bid is at $100.00 a VG. If someone would give me $100.00 for a 1921 Peace Dollar in VG, I'd a bunch of them and sell them (making a decent profit). Problem is (as stated with other posts) Greysheet should only be a guide (along with the others mentioned). Obviously don't pay way over these price guides for coins (unless extremely rare) but just use common sense and check all the different sources. If you are buying from a dealer though, and let's say they are overstocked on a certain coin, you are much likely to get a good deal (regardless of price guide) just because of that external factor. Good luck though!

 

The other wrinkle to Doug's main point, and one he touched on, is there really cannot ever be only one value for a coin. Coins are sold in different marketplaces, with different levels of service and guarantees, for this to really be true. If I buy a coin from a source in Russia versus on Ebay versus walking into Harlan Berks store, I am expecting to pay different prices. They are not quite the same transaction. I know if I ever find out this coin is a fake I can go to the store and get a refund. What do you think my chances are of doing that on something I bought direct or from Ebay 4 years down the road?

Like many things in life, you get what you pay for. Now, you should be intelligent and not overpay in whatever venue you wish to buy, but to say a "value" of a coin from a good dealer versus buying it somewhere without any guarantee should be the same, I would disagree.

Chris

 

Guides are guides and only a rough approximation of reality.

A coin is worth no more and no less than what someone else will pay for it.

Valuing coins is among the toughest numismatic skills to master, IMO. Way harder than simply grading, as it requires market knowledge which is constantly changing. Not to terribly hard to do if your focus is very narrow, but as you broaden your horizons the depth of knowledge required is almost limitless.

All IMO, of course.

 

I was actually looking at values of these V Nickels I bought in the early morning hours http://www.ebay.com/itm/1907-1908-L...R/TnnO7VKeOcqWrtAlthGAQ=&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc

I checked numismedia and the 2013 Redbook and the prices were different, not by much though. Surprisingly the Redbook was less. You would think the completed auction would tell the true value but that is not always the case. Sometimes people are asleep. I have got other coins at less just because people miss them. I think to tell by a completed auction you would probably have to check auctions with optimal conditions, a well known seller ending the auction Sunday evening.