Large numbers even out

Remember the law of large numbers from statistics class?

Last year at this time (9/5/12), I had found 27.885 OZ in dimes.
This year, I am at 27.242 OZ.

That is way too close to be a coincidence.

 

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Has your percentage of silver dropped, though?

 

It was down earlier in the year, but per box I think that it evened out. I don't keep track of per box results.

 

I'm just starting dimes myself and I'm not having much luck. How often should I expect to find silver? I grabbed two boxes and got skunked on both.

 

I don't know about central IL. If you don't find in the next three, I would assume that it is scarce there.

 

Did you search the same amount of boxes for both years?

 

No clue. As I said, I don't keep track of the number of boxes.

 

Just asking. I always get skeptical when a stats term is mentioned. Hopefully you can continue pulling out that much or more next year too.

 

I don't blame you, but I did notice the similarity, and thought it worth commenting on.

 

I wish the return was equal or higher from year to year, but unfortunately I think the returns are diminishing more and more each year.

 

I would think that you are correct. Gresham's law would indicate as such.