Just when ya thought there couldn't be another thread regarding these honkin' hunks o' silver 'green' goes and starts another. I'm reading the Bullion forum and I come across JJ's (JJK78) thread where he's got a poll posted on if anyone's gonna order any more of these sets and it gets me thinking a little bit (that's dangerous). The ordering period runs till early July so he's thinkin' that us CoinTalkers should (if we haven't already done so) buy our products on the 2nd or 3rd of July to see if we have any impact on the numbers sold for those days. So after I read his thread I hop on over to the mint website and check on my order status to see if there's any movement with it. Nope, dull and stagnant. It's still slated to be shipped on the 27th of July. Then I see this......... So now I'm thinkin' what if.........What if all the guys that ordered their sets in bulk the first day of the product offering get theirs in a timely fashion and get the chance to sell first on the secondary market? The guys that order in bulk late are gonna be left holding the bag, right? September delivery is way far off and the best prices for these will be achieved early on. Or am I just a numb nuts in my thinking? BTW, I only ordered one set (to have and to hold).
Ken: I don't think that these have a strong flip potential. Everyone who wants one can have it at Mint issue price. They may have to be patient, but it will come. This is starkly contrasted to any of the Mint's offerings which had a limited mintage. Totally different story. Prices surge upward when people are afraid that they will be left out. there is no danger of that with these sets. I think that the only people who will buy these in bulk will be ones submitting a large number for grading hoping for PF and MS 70 grades.
Wow, that's really something. I was thinking about ordering another set too. It's gonna be really interesting to find out how much of a profit they're gonna bring. Some people say, nothing but I think some people are gonna lose out even though they have a whole month to order. I wonder why the Mint is not sending out until Sept? It looks like they're really trying to control the secondary market somehow. Quite a system.
just as I put aside gem coinage of the current year because I believe that if enough people don't care, there isn't much set aside. In this case, by the time the public does care about something the mintage is already done and the supply is small. Ergo high prices. The Jackie Robinson UNC $5 gold coin is a classic example. Nobody ordered it when they could, now it's too late and they cost 4 figures. I hope that this is the case for you, Fret (and Ken as well), but I don't think that it happens except for once in a blue moon. You're hoping for a 25th anniversary set scenario and I am seeing a Lincoln Cent LP2 scenario. I'm pulling for you to get what you want though.
I got in on some 25th ASE sets and flpped them, and got what I wanted out of the deal. This time, if I buy, it will just be one set to keep, so I don't care if there's "flip potential" or not. The difference with the 2012 set is that there's time to decide - no 5-hour sell-out on this one.
I agree with you Mike, and the fact that everyone who wants one can get one, but what about the 'antsy' guys? The folks who are holding back now and then finding out that shipping for these isn't going to be until September or, God forbid, October. I'm just wondering if the 'first guy on the block to get one' mentality will play with prices in the secondary market initially.
I'm just wondering where these things will be trading later this year when silver is $14.00 an ounce. (If we're going to have another 2012 Eagle Set thread, we might as well stir the pot a little.)
I've been thinking this since the beginning, only not as much the first few to get the raw set as the first few to get sets of 70s since there seems to be a good amount of people who collect 70s who might not order any from the mint since they could just order their 1 set from ebay.
I ordered my set the other day along with some other Mint stuff. Most of my order was "In Stock" and, I assume, will be shipping shortly. The ASE set is back-ordered until September.
These are just some thoughts I had thinking about this product and when order fulfillment estimated dates are decided and announced: Does the Mint's decision to have announced shipping dates on mint-to-demand products hurt or help orders overall? The Mint having initially indicated that they would begin shipping in late July only to revise that now for later orders to ship in late September may simply indicate the mint-to-demand concept is really at play. This two month shipping difference may denote actual production time for the Mint to account for all orders received and for the fulfillment center to get all remaining orders out the door. It may suggest for us that the Mint prepared in advance far fewer units of this product than we may have previously considered were minted ahead of release and that the quantity of orders has risen well above that amount now. It may suggest sales continue to rise such that the Mint's production schedule is being adjusted to deal with the influx of orders, thus requiring them to put a new estimate on shipping for future orders received. But what if the new date scares off orders in the remaining sales period, now that they have published a difference for when orders ship. If order fulfillment and shipping is indeed done on a first-in/first-out system, that notion in collectors memory will return us to the panicked ordering early after release days the next time (if) the Mint offers a mint-to-demand product release. That will just clog the ordering lines like so many other release days. This doesn't rectify issues of customer service that this release helped to soften it's effect on consumers/collectors. It means we go a step back to the issues we faced when ordering new popular products from the Mint as before. The large time disparity will indeed pump up opportunistic flippers who feel the early sales time and the later orders shipped means they can set the mood for flipping opportunity and define when the secondary prices will begin leveling off. The effect of shipping some orders received so much later may indicate to collectors obsessed with mintage fluctuations that there will be many more minted than some may have hoped by mint-to-demand. This may hinder some sales of such products. Cancellation of orders or not following through to place orders in the last days may now occur after seeing how much longer one must wait to receive the product. The enthusiastic rush of 'new' product will not seem so 'new' if you are waiting for orders to arrive months later than others who ordered during the same window of opportunity. Does this mean there are two windows of order opportunity, one for flippers and the other for late comers? Is the Mint really unable to produce and ship any faster? Have they allowed too long the opportunity to order? It seems so and that that has created a gap when they can't fulfill all orders received in about the same delivery time? They just keep creating questions about their order fulfillment process. It was too opportunistic to suggest they could ship orders starting at the end of July. This September shipping announcement presents a quandry for some collectors which may effect sales. For the Mint to better control all these unknowns and avoid all these sort of questions and perceptions, back-ordered status is what all orders should have read until after the coin went off sale. Only then, should the Mint have begun revealing when orders would start to ship. Even then, they might have held orders until all orders were ready to ship or narrowed the estimated delivery status. Given that idea, had they not published the July delivery estimate, they could have waited to see how long all orders would have needed to take to be fulfilled and held off announcing such an early date. This is clearly a new process for the Mint who hasn't worked out all the buggy questions about how mint-to-demand and order fulfillment fits into their current ordering system. It comes as no surprise that they didn't thoroughly anticipate any/all of these same questions as we come up with because the Mint, given the numismatic product offerings, still doesn't understand its consumer and the hobby we engage in and depend on these products to maintain.
