What raises the price of coins.

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Detecto92, Jun 17, 2012.

  1. Detecto92

    Detecto92 Well-Known Member

    Maybe it's me, but I think the price of US coins are becoming artificially inflated.

    Books and magazines come out with raised prices every so often. Who decides if the price goes up?

    In all honesty, people will pay $20 for a coin, because the book/magazine says so.

    In general, world coins are cheaper. I can get world coins out of the 1840s-1890s at fractions of us coin prices.

    Now I understand that fewer people collect world coins, but...the supply of us coins is TREMENDOUS. There are hundreds of each coin on eBay, whereas there may be a handful of a world coin.

    So I really think the supply/demand argument is Invalid.

    The reason is, is because until the internet was popular in the mid 90s, coins were harder to come by. People had to rely on coin dealers, and mail order business. You can get tons of coins with a click of a mouse.

    The internet ruined the prices of a lot of things. What was once considered rare in an antique shop, thousands of examples could now be found.

    So all of a sudden with the internet boom, many more coins became easy to purchase.

    However the internet "boom" did not ruin the price of coins.

    I think prices guides ruin the market. Just because it says a coin is worth $20 on a piece of paper, doesn't mean it actually is.

    I think the reason US coins are higher, is because too many people hold price guides to a standard. If a Magazine that came out in May of 2011, lists a 1857 flying eagle for $20 (just numbers, not a real price), and then the next month issue raised it to $22.50, is it REALLY worth and extra $2.50?

    I really think US coin prices are inflated artificially by books and magazines that just slowly raise the price month by month.
     
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  3. rickmp

    rickmp Frequently flatulent.

    The coin pricing cabal (sort of like OPEC) meets once a month to determine what you are willing to pay and then publishes a price guide that is ten percent higher.
     
  4. HULLCOINS

    HULLCOINS Junior Member

    How many times do we say demand? Artificial demand is called speculation. Is there speculation in the coin market? Yes. But there are also members of CT and millions others who enjoy collecting coins. I can see prices go down if/when the Baby Boomers move on(sorry guys), but I still think the US coin market has a lot of room to grow. Actually, some price guides show that the market is down in the past few years for many series. I am not too worried about the future of US coinage except for the increasing challenge of counterfeits. s
     
  5. roll searcher

    roll searcher coin hunter

    I think prices go up because of more collectors. Let's say 1 in every 100 people collect. The world population is rising, which means more collectors. However, the mintages of coins will not change. There will always be the same amount of coins unless one gets "Found". Thus, more competition to get coins, forcing the price to inflate. Monthly price guides also are a big factor though.
     
  6. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    The values aren't set by the price guides. It is only the bidiots, who are the same people who buy from places like Coin Vault, who believe that hogwash.

    Intelligent and educated collectors have a better feel for the market and what the values should be.

    Chris
     
  7. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    A good example of price discovery is the 2011 Army Half commem. Read this thread carefully and see how a $20 coin turned into a $65 dollar coin in less than a week. It is a really interesting document on this subject. http://www.cointalk.com/t197438/
     
  8. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    A good example of price discovery is the 2011 Army Half commem. Read this thread carefully and see how a $20 coin turned into a $65 dollar coin in less than a week. It is a really interesting document on this subject. http://www.cointalk.com/t197438/ .http://www.ebay.com/itm/ws/eBayISAP...4ctQGl8%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc#ht_2377wt_905 this is the first large bid for the Army Half- contact the bidders on this item and ask them why they set this price (no price guides indicated a $25+ price for this coin until much later).
     
  9. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    Inflation. I am suprised it took 8 posts to get to the primary answer. Even without increased demand, the fact that all things are increasing in prices, and in theory peoples paychecks keep up, mean they have more money to spend on coins, even if that increased dollar amount is only buying the same amount of actual goods. This is the concept of "Real" vs "nominal", see here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_income and here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power.

    Also, the value of the precious metal in the coins has a direct impact on many series. What you really need to look at is how much coin prices have changed AFTER you remove the effects of inflation, and ideally after you remove the value of the precious metal. That way, you are looking at changes in prices that are caused by demand, and other factors.

    Coins do not always go up i prices, as I am sure you are aware. PCGS publishes a top gainers and losers each week. Also by PCGS is an index of rare coins, problem is, I am almost positive it's NOT inflation adjusted, as the chart would not look to impressive. Still, this can approximate the overall health of the market if you dont care about the effects of inflation as I outlined above: http://www.pcgs.com/prices/Graph.aspx?range=1970 to Date&filename=index

    edit:

    Check out this link, very informative! http://qrc.depaul.edu/djabon/cpi.htm Want to see what inflation does to the price of bread? Doubled in price from 1980 to 1999, and it ways worse now!
     
  10. I think coin prices in general fluctuate mostly based upon demand. That does not always mean that many people want a specific coin and that alone drives up prices. It could just be one person willing to pay a greater amount for a specific coin and that then increases the value. There is also a ripple effect. Once demand for a specific coin increases, it may then increase demand and thus prices on coins in the same series or same time period, etc. The same works in reverse if demand decreases. A coin is really worth what someone is willing to pay for it. TC
     
  11. LindeDad

    LindeDad His Walker.

    Go to the bank and buy rolls of coins if you think they are priced too high. BTW it has a lot to do with the shrinking buying power of the dollar also.
     
  12. HULLCOINS

    HULLCOINS Junior Member

    It is much more complex than inflation. Yes inflation must be incorporated with relative value over X amount of years, but coins from the 1950s/60s that sold for several hundred don't sell for 25K +++ in the 2012 economy. Source: 1907 High Relief Double Eagles
     
  13. 10gary22

    10gary22 Junior Member

    Desperation ! Yep, I believe it's a more desperate form of speculation. People think the price will rise, so they want to get in on the deal. Who doesn;t want to make money ? So even the smallest investor can get in. That keeps generating demand. A hamster wheel effect.

    Just sayin"
     
  14. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    Things like registries and the increased appreciation of toned coins also raised prices. There are many factors. I watch bu rolls of state quarters on ebay- some rolls like TN and IL are far more valuable than their mintage would indicate- There are questionable explanations for this but no solid answer. Geekpryde mentioned increases in metal prices and inflation- those contribute also.
     
  15. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    Oooh, found another awesome link regarding coin prices increase, and it talks about inflation and adjusts for it. Not sure if the source is 100% trustworthy, but their math seems good and they seem to provide all the details and footnotes.

    http://www.usrarecoininvestments.com/coin_articles/rare_coins2.htm

    The article concludes that rare coins have returned 5.52 percent after adjustment for inflation through 2003. That is not too shabby, and also goes to prove the point that there are other factors beyond inflation at play. Of course, inflation is still a very large chunk of the answer, but it certainly is not the whole pie.
     
  16. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    I am not disagreeing with your overall point but I really do not like articles like that. They are too hype-y
     
  17. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    oh...the tv hucksters also bring a lot of $ into the market
     
  18. HULLCOINS

    HULLCOINS Junior Member

    I agree. To me, the letters after his name mean nothing with regard to coin knowledge.
     
  19. centsdimes

    centsdimes Active Member

    Red Book values don't seem to go up very fast.
     
  20. BUncirculated

    BUncirculated Well-Known Member

    Red Book is an annual publication wherein Grey Sheet is a monthly.
     
  21. ikandiggit

    ikandiggit Currency Error Collector

    I'm surprised at some collectors who complain that they can't buy the coins they want because the coins sell for more than they want to pay.

    Then there are collectors who complain that their coins don't sell for high enough prices when they think they should.
     
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